College Football Eliminator 2016-17: Week 13

After three months, this is what we've learned: Clemson could make the College Football Playoff because of a missed 33-yard field goal, Florida won the SEC East because Tennessee couldn't handle South Carolina and Vanderbilt, and Central Michigan's Hail Mary on the last play is the reason Oklahoma State is likely missing the playoff this year. On top of all that, Boston College, UCF, Texas-San Antonio, Army, Hawaii (most likely), Vanderbilt, and the Idaho Vandals in their final year of FBS competition all redeemed themselves after Bottom 10 seasons in the past few years (the Knights went 0-12 last year) and blew everyone's minds by qualifying for bowl eligibility and earning the right to a postseason berth. Just another season of college football.

Now to the part we've been leading up to for months: the first two spots in the playoff have been locked in. Eight other teams have one more chance to show the committee they have what it takes to grab one of the last two spots. Six of those eight teams are playing each other during Championship Week (!!) and three will be eliminated simply with a loss, leaving five teams, at the most (three at the least), that will be listening for their names on Selection Sunday a week from today for a chance at the last two spots, along with the two teams that have already clinched their position in the third annual College Football Playoff. To recap: two teams locked in, eight teams fighting for two spots, three to five teams fighting for two spots after Saturday. Check out the paths to the playoff for the ten teams left in contention here.

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The Four Playoff Teams

The four teams in at the moment are #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio State, #3 Clemson, and #4 Washington, in order like they should be. The first two playoff locks are in: Alabama and Ohio State! Clemson and Washington have it easy: win and in. Washington faces Colorado on Friday night in Santa Clara and Clemson takes on Virginia Tech in Orlando on Saturday night.

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Outside Looking In

#13 Western Michigan - Out of 128 FBS teams, only two managed to go 12-0 during the regular season. Team A crushed USC, Tennessee, and Texas A&M. Team B beat Northwestern (barely), Illinois, and Central Michigan (who beat Oklahoma State). I want Team B in so bad, but their resumé isn't as pretty as Team A so they will most likely have to settle for the Cotton Bowl. If you didn't already crack the code, Team A is Alabama and Team B is Western Michigan, the only team left standing in the 'Outside Looking In' category. Will I eliminate the Broncos? Hell no. They stay here until the committee makes their decision, barring a loss to Ohio in the MAC Championship Game. Survive and advance.

Previously Eliminated Serious Playoff Contenders

This is the rest of the field. It's #6 Wisconsin, #8 Penn State, #7 Oklahoma, #9 Colorado, and #11 Oklahoma State. Florida gets eliminated for good after their 31-13 loss to Florida State, so it's down to just these five in this group. The winner of Penn State-Wisconsin will hope to hear their name called a week from today, as well as the winner of Oklahoma-Oklahoma State. The winners of those two games are two-loss conference champions that will be compared to Ohio State, Clemson, etc. Colorado can upend Washington and open up that final spot, possibly for themselves, if they are able to beat them in the PAC-12 Championship Game.

The Big Ten is poised to have the best showing in the playoff. Simply put, the winner of the Big Ten Championship Game needs either Alabama, Clemson, or Washington be upset in their conference championship games to claim a spot in the playoff. If that happens, the loser goes to the Rose Bowl and Michigan sees the best available New Year's Six bowl. If that doesn't happen, the winner goes to the Rose Bowl and the loser goes to the Cotton or Orange Bowl, leaving the other New Year's Six opening for Michigan. 

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For Colorado to make the playoff, they need to upset Washington and hope Virginia Tech upsets Clemson. That's only two games that need to go their way and one is in their hands, but that's asking for Virginia Tech to upset Clemson, a tall task for any team in the country. It's definitely possible, considering their four one-possession victories this year over Auburn, Troy (!), NC State in overtime (Clemson was a 33-yard field goal away from being out of playoff race), and Florida State. If Colorado wins and Clemson wins, Colorado makes the Rose Bowl and Washington will have to settle for...the Alamo Bowl? Oklahoma State-Washington would be a fun match-up. It's either that or the playoff for the Huskies. If Colorado loses, they'll also probably see the Alamo Bowl, that's my guess. Get ready for ten thousand "Remeber when Colorado was in the Big 12" flashbacks from the commentators and highlights from games between Colorado and their old Big 12 opponents, yada-yada. You heard it here first, folks.

Here's the situation in the Big 12. Oklahoma needs to win Bedlam, have Florida upset Alabama, Virginia Tech upset Clemson, and Colorado upset Washington. If those four thins happen, the result of the Big Ten Championship probably doesn't matter: the Sooners will be in no matter what. That's not an easy path to the playoff, but Oklahoma State's is much more difficult. They need to win Bedlam, have Florida upset Alabama, Virginia Tech upset Clemson, Penn State beat Wisconsin, and Colorado upset Washington...and then they still might not get into the playoff. It would be Ohio State, Alabama, Penn State, Colorado, and Oklahoma State in the running in that case for four spots. Colorado would probably get the fourth spot over the Cowboys because of the PAC-12's championship game. The fact that Oklahoma State lost to Central Michigan at home doesn't help their case. Two tough roads to the playoff: the winner of Bedlam will probably settle for the Sugar Bowl and the loser will fight with West Virginia for a higher ranking and a spot in a better bowl game than the other this bowl season.

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Eliminated

Florida - Just when Gator fans thought there was no chance...they were right. I am going to subtly re-eliminate Florida here.

Michigan - The JT Barrett fourth-down conversion was a blown call. Much sympathy for the Wolverines, just inches away from a date with Wisconsin and a potential playoff spot. A win also would have made Penn State the first team to be eliminated this year due to the result of a different game, but it wasn't in the cards. Now the question is: where will Michigan play their bowl game? They deserve a New Year's Six game, but so does Ohio State...and Penn State...and Wisconsin. Tough call.

Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Eliminated in Week 12

Louisville, West Virginia

Eliminated in Week 11

No Eliminations

Eliminated in Week 10

Baylor, Florida, Nebraska, Texas A&M

Eliminated in Week 9

Boise State, Utah

Eliminated in Week 8

No Eliminations

Eliminated in Week 7

Arizona State, Maryland, Miami, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Wisconsin

Eliminated in Week 6

Air Force, Arkansas, Colorado, Houston, Indiana, Minnesota, North Carolina, Stanford, Texas Tech

Eliminated in Week 5

Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Memphis, Michigan State, Navy, San Diego State, TCU, Texas, Toledo

Eliminated in Week 4

Arizona, Army, Central Michigan, Georgia Southern, LSU, Oregon, Penn State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, South Florida, UCLA

Eliminated in Week 3

Auburn, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Duke, East Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Marshall, Missouri, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Southern Miss

Eliminated in Week 2

Akron, Ball State, BYU, California, Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee, NC State, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Purdue, SMU, South Alabama, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Troy, Tulsa, UCF, UNLV, Utah State, UTEP, UTSA, Western Kentucky, Wyoming

Eliminated in Week 1

Appalachian State, Boston College, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Charlotte, FIU, Fresno State, Georgia State, Hawaii, Iowa State, Kent State, Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Massachusetts, Miami (OH), Mississippi State, New Mexico State, North Texas, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio, Oregon State, Rice, Rutgers, San Jose State, Southern California, Temple, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Washington State

Check back in next Sunday to find out if your team makes the playoff in 'College Football Eliminator 2016-17: Championship Week'!