Jan. 27, 2019
2019 Fantasy Football Sleepers and steals QB Edition
This will wrap up my articles on sleepers and steals based on position. Quarterback is one of the least important positions in fantasy because of how many good QBs there are in the NFL and how little difference there is between a top 3 QB and a QB in the 10-15 range. For example, there was only a 60 point difference between Ben Roethlisberger who was QB 3 and Tom Brady who was QB 14. Over the entire season that is less than a 4 point per game difference. Although, 4 points can be difference can be the difference between going 6-6 and 9-3. Therefore, I am going to give a few QBs I think can be in the top 10 and possibly top 5 range so you can maximize your chances of winning your league.
Baker Mayfield, QB CLE (ADP 135-150, QB 13-15)
This is one that many people in the fantasy football community have as a breakout player. He's an excellent young QB and proved it in his rookie season having the best season of the rookie QBs by a long shot. I'd expect him to improve in his sophomore season as I'd expect his supporting cast to improve (Njoku, Chubb and Callaway). Mayfield is a pure passer and displays great accuracy downfield and his a big play waiting to happen.
Overall: I'd expect Mayfield to be this years Patrick Mahomes, although I don't think he'll be quite that good. I'd draft Mayfield as the QB 7-10. I'm not going to put an ADP on the QBs because almost all QBs should be taken late in drafts. However, I'll give some QBs I'd put in front of him to give perspective to where to draft him. 6. Rodgers, 7. Wilson 8. Mayfield
Phillip Rivers, QB LAC (ADP 150-160, QB 14-16)
To me this is very strange that Rivers is ranked so low. Rivers has been one of the most consistently good QBs in the NFL for a decade. The only reason I could imagine have Rivers ranked so low is that Melvin Gordon will likely score a large amount of TDs and take them away from Rivers. However, Gordon has ranked 2nd in the league in TDs behind only Gurley over the past couple of years. Even with Gordon taking 20+ TDs in 2019, Rivers will almost certainly be a solid QB as his receiving core has gotten better and better, featuring: Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry and Mike Williams. I'd expect Rivers to have one of the best seasons of his career, if not the best.
Overall: I'd expect to have a repeat of his 2018 season and possibly even more. I'd expect him to have around 4,500 yards and 30+ TDs. Overall Rivers is going to be a huge value in the draft if he goes anywhere past QB 8-10. I currently have Rivers ranked as my 4th QB ranked behind only Mahomes, Watson, and Andrew Luck.
Matthew Stafford, QB DET (Undrafted)
This is probably the easiest person to put on this list. Stafford is a very good fantasy QB, from 2011 to 2017 Stafford around 4,500 yards and around 25 TDs, with around 12-14 INTs. That would be good for around 285-290 points, which would put him in the QB 10-14 range. This makes it pretty easy to have him on this list considering he went undrafted and 16 QBs were taken. Considering he has a receiver with great talent, Golladay, and a good 2nd receiver, Jones Jr., I'd expect Stafford to return to his norm and pretty easily.
Overall: I'd expect Stafford to regress to his career mean, around 4,500 yards and 25 TDs. I have Stafford outside of my top 12 currently, but can certainly be in there. I have him as a QB 8-14 this season depending on how the offseason progresses. I would use a late pick on Stafford and another QB on this list to pretty much guarantee yourself a serviceable-at-worst QB 1.
Carson Wentz, QB PHI (Undrafted)
Wentz is one of the best young QBs in the league. He was in contention for the MVP in the 2017 before an ACL injury ended his season. His 2018 season was not quite on the MVP caliber level but was still good. He only played 10 games and averaged around 19.4 points per game. Over a full season that would be worth around 300 points which would put Wentz in the 8-12 range. He is incredibly talented and will be a good value in 2019 fantasy.
Overall: Wentz is a great QB, and I'd expect him to be one of the top 10 QBs in fantasy if he plays the full season. However, I have him outside of my top 12 simply because he has been injured for a good amount of the time over the past 2 seasons. He should definitely be drafted late in the draft simply because he can be a top 5 QB in fantasy.
Sam Darnold, QB NYJ (This is because of the end to his 2018 season which was around 15ppg, but he will have a new coach who is known for his work with QBs).
Lamar Jackson, QB BAL (This is because Jackson is a freak athlete who runs for tons of yards and gets some rushing TDs).