Wisconsin/Iowa preview

Wisconsin is looking to snap its losing streak at two games when the No. 10 Badgers head to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes. Iowa, the defending West division champion, comes in at 2-1 in the Big Ten and hopes to defend its crown. The Hawkeyes have won their last two games following a 38-31 home loss to Northwestern. This is a monster game in the Big Ten West, as the loser is out of the race to get to the conference championship game. Wisconsin received some great news yesterday, as star linebacker Vince Biegel has been cleared to play and will return to action against the Hawkeyes. However, both teams have some injury concerns. Wisconsin will still be without cornerback Natrell Jamerson, as well as freshman linebacker Zack Baun and nose tackle Olive Sagapolu. Iowa may have even more injuries than Wisconsin, though, as the Hawkeyes will once again be without wide receiver Matt VandeBerg and possibly tight end George Kittle and both starting offensive tackles. It will be a smash mouth football game and whoever runs the ball more effectively will probably win.

When Wisconsin runs the ball...

On the season, the Badgers are ranked 67th in rush offense. However, Wisconsin ran well last week against the vaunted Ohio State defense. After two subpar games running the ball against the Michigan schools, Corey Clement rushed 25 times for 164 yards. If the Badgers run well once again, freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook will find throwing lanes against Iowa’s defense. The Hawkeyes are ranked 70th in the country in rush defense, allowing 151.9 yards per game. However, in the last two games, Iowa has held Minnesota and Purdue to a combined 149 yards rushing and less than three yards per carry. Purdue is not a good rushing team, but to hold the Gophers to 102 yards on the ground is impressive. The Badgers will need to have an approach like last week to get the ground game going. Look for more Jazz Peavy jet sweeps as well. That was a staple of the Wisconsin offensive attack when Paul Chryst was the offensive coordinator, but has not been called much in the last few years. Running it with Peavy will open up running lanes for Clement and the Badgers will find some room to run.

Edge: Push

When Wisconsin passes the ball...

Hornibrook had a bounce back game against Ohio State after having a terrible one in Ann Arbor. The Badgers will need more of that to keep the Iowa defense off balance. The Hawkeyes are decent in pass coverage, but not like they were a year ago. Iowa is 56th in opposing passing yards per game and 44th in opponents passer rating. Wisconsin runs the ball to open up the pass, so if the Badgers can run the ball effectively, expect Hornibrook to complete some passes down the field. Even though he does not have the interceptions that he had last year, Hornibrook will have to watch out for Iowa cornerback Desmond King. The 2015 Jim Thorpe Award winner only has one interception this year after having eight his junior season, but is still a dangerous cover guy who can take it the distance if he picks an errant pass off. Iowa does not have the defensive line that Ohio State does, but the Badgers need to protect Hornibrook better after the offensive line struggled to do that last week.

Edge: Iowa

When Iowa runs the ball...

Wisconsin gets Biegel back this week, which is huge, but the loss of Sagapolu is a big loss for the Badgers defense as they take on this Iowa ground attack. The onus will fall on highly touted freshman Garrett Rand to fill the big shoes of Sagapolu. Iowa is 58th in rush yards per game with 180 per game, but are 41st in yards per carry (4.8) and tied for 16th in rushing touchdowns (17). Wisconsin is 14th in the country in opposing rushing yards per game and 20th in yards per carry, so sledding will be tough for Iowa even without the big nose tackle. Ohio State was able to run a bit on Wisconsin last week, but much of that was due to J.T. Barrett’s running ability. Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard can run a bit, but he is not close to Barrett in that regard. Akrum Wadley is a very good running back for the Hawkeyes, who is averaging more than seven yards per carry on the year. He has not carried the ball more than 15 times in a game this season, but he has ran the ball really well the past two games, rushing 29 times for 283 yards. Wisconsin will need to slow him down in order to win.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Iowa passes the ball...

Beathard may be without his top two targets and both of his starting offensive tackles. If Wisconsin can contain Wadley, the Hawkeyes may be in trouble. Beathard had a very good year last season, but has not had the same magic this year. His completion percentage has not exceeded 60 percent in four of his last five games and has just a 4-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in conference play so far. Three of those touchdowns came against the bottom feeders of the Big Ten, Rutgers and Purdue. He has yet to play a defense as good as Wisconsin. The Badgers are not as good at stopping the pass as they are at stopping the run, but Bucky is certainly not bad at either. Wisconsin is 37th in pass defense, as opposing teams have thrown for more than 200 yards in each of the last four games. However, if Kittle can’t go, the Hawkeyes will have trouble getting much done through the air. Wisconsin and Iowa each have sacked opposing quarterbacks 17 times, but the Badgers have done it in one fewer game. Iowa will need to be able to protect Beathard or else it will be a long day for him.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

The Badgers have made 11-of-12 field goals and Andrew Endicott has made all four of his field goal attempts. Iowa’s Keith Duncan has also made all four of his field goal attempts, but has a long of just 28 yards. Neither team is very good at punting, with Wisconsin toward the bottom in the country and Iowa checks in at 80. Iowa has a decided edge in kick and punt returning, so the edge will go to the Hawkeyes.

Edge: Iowa

Overview

This will be a low scoring game and it could depend on which team wins the turnover battle and puts its offense in a better position to score. Wisconsin will win if it can slow down Wadley because the Hawkeyes won’t be able to score much if they have to throw the ball often. Wisconsin will need to establish the run once again like it did against Ohio State to win the game. Hornibrook also needs to take care of the ball. If that happens, I like the Badgers chances.

Prediction: Wisconsin 20, Iowa 7