Buffalo Bills Cap Situation


There has been a lot of talk about the Buffalo Bills in recent weeks and it has mostly been negative. It started with the firing of head coach Rex Ryan after yet another season ending without a playoff berth for the franchise. It continued when rumors emerged claiming there was dysfunction within the organization in regards to the relationship between Rex and GM Doug Whaley. It has only intensified recently with the ongoing issue of Tyrod Taylor's contract situation and whether the Bills will pay him or let him walk. 

Instead of talking about all that or the head coaching search that is going on I wanted to turn the attention to the Bills Cap Situation moving into the 2017 season and see where they can make additions and subtractions to make this a playoff caliber team. This team has enough talent to win now and with the 17 year playoff drought weighing heavily on this franchise the Bills are going to try everything they can to make this a playoff level team for next season. Doug Whaley cant move in the direction of a rebuild because he is on the hot seat and his job is on the line moving forward. 

So lets start first by looking at the overall projected cap space for the Bills in 2017

The above picture from Spotrac shows some numbers but the one you need to focus on is the "est. Cap Space" number, which is just under 32 million. And for those that are curious as to who are the top earning players on the Bills here is the some more Spotrac info. Keep in mind that the most important number as far as projecting is the "Cap Hit" number to the far right:

As you can see the this chart doesn't include impending free agents such as Stephon Gilmore, Zack Brown, Lorenzo Alexander or Robert Woods but Tyrod Taylor is listed on here with a cap hit of just about 16 million so take that into account. 

There have been rumors that the Bills are moving on from Taylor and if that is the case the Bills will have much more money available to them, around 48 million as opposed to 32. This would give the Bills a lot to work with but would also leave them searching for a QB. I think the ideal situation is to keep Tyrod and make a couple acquisitions through free agency and the draft to improve both sides of the ball. I'm kind of on the fence about the whole Tyrod situation but i just think cutting ties is a far to dangerous approach and sets the whole team back moving into a must win year. 

The Plan

The first thing I would do is sign Stephon Gilmore to a long term contract. I know that isn't a real popular opinion among Bills fans as Gilmore has been a highly criticized player. If he can accept a reasonable contract we need him back on the team otherwise your just losing a quality player and you will instantly have a glaring need for a CB that you will have to address through free agency or the draft. A lot has been talked about as to how much Gilmore is asking for in the FA market but he needs to at least be realistic. He has never made a Pro Bowl before and just watching the games you see why but he is definitely a solid corner in the league and if the Bills make a fair offer we should be able to come to terms. With a contract around 4 year/$50 million with a nice signing bonus he can be had. The list below is the contacts for the top 14 paid corners in the NFL based on average annual value. Gilmore is clearly not in the caliber of a Norman, Revis (at the time he signed) or Sherman but i think a 4 year contract for an AAV (Average Annual Value) of $12.5 million is more than fair for both Gilmore and the Bills especially with the increasing salary cap. As you can see from the list below the contract I just proposed would make Gilmore the 7th highest paid corner in the league based off AAV. You might need to bump it up to a 5th year to appease Gilmore but these are just rough suggestions. Paying Gilmore that amount of money would leave the Bills cap at around 20 million.

The next thing I would turn my attention to is the line-backing core. The Bills have some real decisions to make here with both Zach Brown and Lorenzo Alexander heading to free agency after each had great years. You also have Reggie Ragland back in the mix after he missed this season with an ACL injury. Preston Brown will aslo be in the mix since he is under contract for 2017, but what do you do with Z. Brown and Alexander. It seems like Brown is looking to get paid after his big year which probably puts him out of reach for the Bills. Alexander also had a career year resulting in his first Pro Bowl and he also emerged as a leader for the Bills. Despite his Pro Bowl year Alexanders age (33) could make him a guy the Bills can acquire for relatively cheap. I still don't know how P. Brown, Ragland and Alexander would fit together in what looks to be a new defensive scheme but its at least a decent start. Brown and Ragland are more versatile and Alexander can specialize in rushing the QB on passing downs. If the Bills feel a need to add another linebacker in FA that is more of a cover guy or someone to fit the new scheme to compliment the trio they could do that for cheap just like they did with Z. Brown this year.  Lets say you can get Alexander locked up on a 1 year 3 or 4 million dollar deal, that leaves the Bills with around 16-17 million in cap space. 

The next huge glaring issue on the defense is the safety position. The Bills desperately need a big time play-maker on the back end who can help in coverage and also be versatile enough to get in the box and assist in the run game. Everyone downplays the necessity of the safety position but the way teams play offensively these days its becoming a position where you need a versatile player that can match up with running backs out of the backfield, quick slot receivers and big tight ends. Guys like Eric Berry, Tyrann Mathieu and Earl Thomas really change the dynamic of a defense. Clearly with the Aaron Williams situation the Bills are severely lacking in anyone who is remotely close to filling that role. But if he ends up retiring due to his neck injuries he does clear up some extra cap space which could help us find an adequate replacement. I think the move here is to draft a safety with the 10th overall pick and then go to the free agent market and sign someone who compliments that player. This draft is loaded with top end safety prospects (M. Hooker, J. Adams, J. Peppers, B Baker, M. Maye). Say you draft Jamal Adams at 10, a player who is said to be a bigger, better version of Tyrann Mathieu to be your outstanding do everything safety then add another decent safety in free agency. You turn a glaring weakness into a strength all in one foul swoop. I think a lot of the issues the Bills had on defense can be fixed if they bring in the right coordinator and switch back to a 4-3 system since players like Dareus, Hughes, Lawson and Kyle Williams all seem to work better in that scheme. With these personnel changes as well as a systematic change with the new defensive coordinator you will see the Bills defense turn into the strength it was in 2014 under Jim Schwartz. But potentially signing a safety would cost the Bills a few million dollars, lets just say we are sitting at around 12 million in cap space now.

The final piece of the puzzle is on the offensive side of the ball at wide receiver. The Bills poor receiver depth was exposed this season with injuries to Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Greg Salas leaving the Bills thin and searching for answers anywhere they could (Percy Harvin) but its a position that definitely needs addressed. I would love to bring back Robert Woods but with the other moves I'm suggesting it could be tough but as of now we have roughly 12 million to work with. It is a pretty weak free agent WR class this year so Woods would be smart to test the market:  

Like I said, not a real great market but if the Bills can get Woods on a contract that pays him around 5 or 6 million per season I think they should try and bring him back. If not they can go digging for a veteran option like Kenny Britt or Anquan Bolden. Say they do bring Woods back for 6 million per year (leaving us with a mere 6 million in cap space), it still seems like drafting a WR with our second round choice is the play to add to the depth there. You can get a really good receiver in the 2nd round if you do your homework.  Once again bringing back Woods instead of letting him walk and adding further to the group through the draft gives you more depth and talent at the position.

I think with all these moves you can see a depth chart that is rock solid on both offense and defense. The key is to not lose the good players you already have like Gilmore, Woods and Alexander while simultaneously addressing the areas of weakness like safety, linebacker and wide receiver. Obviously if Tyrod does get the boot it changes the whole dynamic of the cap situation and ruins the plan I laid out but I just wanted to give a basic rundown of the situation and the numbers involved. Also, as is always the case, if the Bills need extra cap space they can always restructure existing contracts to get some additional space as they have done in the past with Eric Wood and Kyle Williams. The Bills can also use the franchise tag on a player like Gilmore to get an extra year out of him but they would have to pay a premium on him of around 15 million for the year which also changes the cap numbers a bit. 

What do you think the Bills need to address moving forward?