NFL Awards and Super Bowl Predictions
2016 is in the books, and with it comes another NFL season, the likes of which we have never seen before. It was a year characterized by an up-for-grabs MVP race, two rookies taking over in Dallas, the Raiders back in the playoffs, multiple ties, a $72 million trash pile in Houston, major flops in Carolina and Denver, a vintage Giants defense, missed extra points, a publicity stunt featuring the Salvation Army, a Browns victory, and two backup quarterbacks making more headlines than the rest of the league combined (Romo and Kaepernick). But some things never change. The Patriots still rule the AFC, Aaron Rodgers is still the bad man he’s always been, Justin Tucker doesn’t miss field goals, Chip Kelly is searching for a new job, the Browns need a quarterback, Gronk and AP are injured, Odell Beckham had an all-pro year, Odell Beckham had a tantrum-filled year, Marvin Lewis didn’t win a playoff game, Marvin Lewis still has a job, the Steelers won the division, and the Jets let down their fans once again, even if this 65-yard onside kick cheered them up a little bit.
Now as the playoffs roll around, 12 teams battle it out to see who gets to hold up the Lombardi trophy after Super Bowl 51. However, that’s not the only hardware that will be handed out this postseason. There are still several awards and even more worthy candidates, so here are the players and teams most deserving of taking them home after the 2016 season.
MVP: Matt Ryan
There may never be a year in which more players have a claim to the MVP award, but in the end, Matt Ryan was simply unstoppable. He finished the season with nearly 5000 yards passing, 38 touchdowns, only 7 interceptions, and a league-high 117.1 passer rating, leading Atlanta to a division title and a first-round bye. The Falcons finished with the number one scoring offense in football, and Ryan threw touchdowns to 13 different players, dispelling the notion that he is reliant on Julio Jones to put up big numbers. In fact, Ryan had three of his best games with Julio out of the lineup. He was the picture of consistency all year, and could have put up even bigger numbers if he didn’t sit out so many fourth quarters with big leads. Fans are probably clamoring for Brady, but how can the NFL give an MVP award to a guy who only played 75% of the season, when his team went 3-1 with a backup and third-stringer in his absence. Brady was awesome in the 12 games he played, up to if not past Ryan’s level, but in order for him to take home the award, he would have needed to drastically outshine Ryan to make up for the four games missed, and Matty Ice was just too good all year long.
Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers
Remember when the Packers were 4-6 coming off four straight losses, three games back in the division. Aaron Rodgers does. It’s when he proudly stated that his team would “run the table,” and that’s exactly what they did. Rodgers led the Packers to six straight wins to close out the year, finishing with 40 touchdown passes and 7 picks. He routinely turned negative plays into big ones, most recently buying time in the pocket and hitting Geronimo Allison for a touchdown against the Detroit Lions. However, no play spoke more to Rodgers’s greatness than the one he made against the Chicago Bears with half a minute left. Rodgers rolled left and hit Jordy Nelson for a 60-yard bomb, putting the Packers in field-goal range to win the game. No other quarterback in the league makes that throw. He has made a strong case for the MVP, and probably would have won it had he consistently played like he did at the tail end of the year. Instead he’ll settle for the Offensive Player of the Year award, better known as the runner-up for MVP.
Defensive Player of the Year: Landon Collins
Many people believed this to be a three-horse race between Von Miller, Khalil Mack, and Vic Beasley. All three finished with double-digit sacks and at least three forced fumbles. With a month left to go, Landon Collins probably wasn’t on a lot of people’s radars. However, quiet verging on silent months from Miller and Mack opened the door. Miller had zero sacks over the last month of the season, and Mack had one. Miller anchored a defense that had trouble stopping the run, and played better when he was struggling than they did when he was at the top of his game in terms of points allowed. Beasley wasn’t nearly as quiet, leading the league in sacks and forced fumbles, but he didn’t get to the quarterback as much as it seems. 97% of his hurries resulted in sacks, meaning that he rarely had any disruption in the backfield when it wasn’t a sack. Rather than picking one of these three pass rushers, why not go with the anchor of a defense that skyrocketed this year. That’s Landon Collins, the Giants leading tackler who was a major factor in a much-improved run game. Collins routinely laid big hits on opposing backs and receivers, never missing a tackle in the process. He also finished tied for third in the league with five interceptions, at the center of a ball hawking Giants secondary that showed out this season. Collins may only be in his second year, but he is a unique combination of safety and linebacker that is the reason this Giants defense is as good as it is.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ezekiel Elliott
In 9/10 years, Jordan Howard and Michael Thomas would be in the running for Rookie of the Year. In 99/100 years, Dak Prescott would win the award. This is that 100th year. It seems impossible to pick which Cowboys rookie had a bigger part in their 14-win season, and if there is any year to give co-winners, it’s this year. Until the NFL does that, Zeke is the guy. Despite sitting out week 17, and only playing the first half in week 16, Elliott ran for 1631 yards and 15 touchdowns, showing his pass catching and pass blocking abilities throughout his rookie campaign. Prescott had an outstanding season, but statistically it wasn’t as unbelievable as Elliott’s. Zeke showed the ability to not just win fantasy matchups, but also win games in ways that running backs seldom can, such as his week ten performance in Pittsburgh. The volume is perhaps the most impressive part of Elliott’s rookie season, and while Dak finished toward the bottom half of the league in attempts, the Cowboys really leaned on Elliott, handing him the ball 322 times, making him the sole workhorse in this Dallas backfield.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Joey Bosa
So you know how I said a guy who played only 75% of the season shouldn’t win MVP award unless he is far and away better than everyone else. This isn’t the MVP award, and Joey Bosa is far better than everyone else. Bosa only played in 12 games, but his production was off the charts, recording 10.5 sacks. Projected over a 16-game season, Bosa’s 14 sacks would have placed him second in the NFL. He was a huge disruption in the passing game, and was a bright spot on an otherwise unimpressive Chargers team. Jalen Ramsey is the only other rookie who put up a fight, and while he was good, Bosa proved he was worth all the money the Chargers threw into his rookie contract.
Comeback Player of the Year: Jordy Nelson
This one is a no-brainer. When Jordy Nelson went down in the preseason with a torn ACL last year, the Packers were in trouble. Aaron Rodgers clearly missed his favorite target, particularly in the red zone. Randall Cobb seemed to struggle without a number one receiver on the other side of the field, the running backs were a non-factor in the passing game, and there were really no tight ends that scared opponents. The history of players returning at top form from torn ACL’s isn’t promising. Just ask Darrelle Revis. Or Jamaal Charles. Or Jeremy Maclin. None of them have been the same player since. But not only did Nelson return in top form, he had nearly an identical season to his 2014 campaign. It was like nothing had ever happened. Nelson finished 2014 with 98 receptions on 151 targets for 1519 yards and 13 touchdowns. He finished 2015 with 97 receptions on 152 targets for 1257 yards and 14 touchdowns. That’s comeback player of the year material.
Coach of the Year: Andy Reid
Sure, Bill Belichick and Jason Garrett have led their teams to the best record in their respective conferences, but the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t far behind. They finished 12-4, winning the toughest division in football, and will be watching wildcard weekend at home with a first-round playoff bye. When you look up and down this Kansas City roster, the weapons to win 12 games just aren’t there. Reid has taken a mediocre Chiefs roster and turned them into a juggernaut in the AFC. Alex Smith is a game-manager, Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West don’t scare anybody, and they don’t have a single receiver who caught for more than 600 yards this season. The Kansas City offense is predicated on a tight end and a do-it-all return man. Tyreek Hill came into this season with a lot of baggage after a domestic abuse incident in college. Andy Reid took him on as a project, the way he did with Michael Vick in Philadelphia. Reid, whose son died of an overdose, understands what it’s like to deal with people with criminal histories, and he has given Tyreek Hill a second chance, unleashing one of the most dangerous weapons in football with the ball in his hands. The defense is where the Chiefs really excel however, and they were able to do so without the presence of top pass-rusher Justin Houston for almost the entire season. Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson battled injuries as well, and the Chiefs were forced to lean on young players, such as third-year linebacker Dee Ford, second-year corner Marcus Peters, and rookie defensive lineman Chris Jones. The pieces that Kansas City has don’t add up to a 12-win team, but throw Andy Reid in the mix, and they’re a Super Bowl Contender.
Super Bowl Prediction: Patriots over Cowboys
This one hurts. Is anyone else sick and tired of Tom Brady winning every game and never deteriorating at all? The Patriots will win the Super Bowl because their road there is a cake walk. The Cowboys are awaiting their opponent next week, wondering if they will face Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, or Matthew Stafford. The Patriots are awaiting Brock Osweiler, Connor Cook, or Matt Moore. There is no Broncos defense to hold them back this year in the AFC, and Tom Brady should cruise his way through on route to his fifth Super Bowl. The NFC is a little more difficult to figure out. The Lions are the only team with no shot at the Super Bowl, and the Seahawks have looked pretty weak as of late too. That leaves four teams, and the Giants and Packers will both have a tough enough time getting past each other. The winner of that game will have to travel to Dallas, and the Cowboys haven’t lost at home since week one, in Prescott’s first start, and had an opportunity to kick a game-winning field goal had Terrance Williams ran out of bounds like he should have in the final seconds. The Cowboys are young, but they don’t play like it. Prescott doesn’t make mistakes, and he won’t throw interceptions at crucial times to lose games. He’s only thrown four all year, and Elliott puts him in a position where he doesn’t need to do it all himself. The Giants and the Seahawks are the only teams on the road to the Super Bowl that can stop the run, and it’s extremely likely that the Cowboys won’t face either. Those are also the only two teams that effectively stop opponents from scoring, except the Cowboys, who rank fifth in scoring defense and first against the run. No rookie quarterback has ever led his team to the Super Bowl, but no rookie quarterback has ever done most of what Dak Prescott has been able to accomplish in his brilliant first season. In the end though, Brady and Belichick are just too tough and too smart. They won’t let two rookies beat them, when Tom Brady has a running game like he has with LeGarrette Blount, it’ll be dangerous for a young defense like Dallas’s.
