Backs Are the Future for Patriots
You’ve heard it. It’s all over social media. TV talking heads have their own versions. The stats are nearly burned into your brain at this point.
Patriots are undefeated when so-and-so touches the ball so many times. New England is whatever-and-0 when they do this-or-that. The Patriots are undefeated on Tuesday night games played under crescent moons.
Over-analysis? Sometimes, yes. But the numbers make a valid point – keep the backfield heavily involved in the offense.
The Patriots are:
5-0 when Sony Michel rushes for 90 yards or more.
8-0 when they rush for 100 yards or more.
10-1 when James White has at least 10 touches.
9-2 when Cordarrell Patterson has at least one rushing attempt.
5-0 when Julian Edelman has at least one rushing attempt.
Now some of these numbers make sense. Others are a stretch. But statistics can be manipulated. An honest picture points out that the Patriots beat the Chicago Bears despite Michel gaining just 22 yards, with his afternoon being cut short due to injury.
Or New England defeated The Houston Texans with White getting just nine touches.
And the Patriots beat the Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills without breaking the century mark on the ground.
The numbers aren’t flawless, but the stats strongly support better success when the backfield is heavily involved in the offense.
Push aside the “Patriots ain’t what they used to be” chatter for a moment. Picking on Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Edelman is convenient, but giving them support out of the backfield reduces the dependence on the veterans.
Going all the way back to 2001, New England did very well when they averaged at least 100 rushing yards per game during the regular season. Every season they reached the Super Bowl, win or lose, the Patriots gained more than 1,600 rushing yards.
Three out of the four years they lost in the Conference Championship, the Patriots gained more than 1,600 rushing yards.
Of the two times New England was bounced in the divisional round, they eclipsed 1,600 yards in 2010.
The 2009 wild card exit was a 1,921-yard season the hard way.
And of the two times the Patriots missed the playoffs (2002, 2008), the ’08 season churned out 2,278 yards because New England was protecting QB Matt Cassel, who started 15 games after Brady’s knee was torn apart in the season opener.
That’s eleven out of 12 seasons the Patriots reached either the conference championships or the Super Bowl averaging at least 100 yards rushing per game, two out of three reaching the wild card round or divisionals, and half of the wild card appearances.
That’s a pretty strong correlation.
New England is getting solid blocking from the offensive line. Sony Michel has been a productive three down runner, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. And ample utilization of jet sweeps takes advantage of the receivers’ running ability.
The commitment to running the ball, whoever the ball carrier is, has a positive side effect. When defenses have to take stopping the run seriously, it opens up play-action passes, giving better opportunities for Gronkowski, Edelman and friends.
Those friends often catch passes from out of the backfield. New England’s backs have combined for 114 receptions. That includes career years as receivers for White (83) and James Develin (11).
White in particular has been ridiculously clutch in 2018. He has 13 third down receptions for first downs, putting him in the company of AFC receivers. He has totaled eleven touchdowns and 1,107 yards and zero fumbles. Only good things happen with the ball in White’s hands.
And most receivers out of the backfield tend to have an advantage if a linebacker draws one-on-one coverage. It’s hard enough if the assignment is White or Burkhead, but Patterson on a wheel route or Dorsett isolated is a serious mismatch.
New England is on pace to eclipse 2,000 yards on the ground. Of the four times the Patriots broke 2K, they reached at least the conference championship. The Cassel-led campaign was the exception.
Give Brady a productive backfield and I like his chances.
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