A Look Ahead At The AL East, 2017
The AL East.
The division where the Atlantic Seaboard Media loves for you to believe is the greatest division ever...............especially in the last 12 years. But is it? And is it still? Well? Honestly, I cannot say one way or the other, but it is still very competitive, especially compared to the AL Central and the AL West. And will it continue in 2017?
We saw last year Boston, with a mix of trades, signings, and farm products, as well as have an emotional ride with David Ortiz, win the division but get bounced out by Cleveland. We saw Baltimore and Toronto snag the Wild Card spots where they had a classic game in which Toronto won en route to an ALCS by bouncing out hated enemy Texas but getting throttled by Cleveland as well. New York, a team normally buying at the deadline, sold, and it paid off greatly as they have quality players in the farm system that can make an impact while bringing back a player they traded at the deadline this off-season (Chapman). But Tampa is once again a lost cause similar to 1998-2007. So, will Boston regain their footing in October? Will Toronto and Baltimore improve their chances? Will the young guns of the Yankees continue the trend? Will Tampa Bay be remotely competitive?
1. BOSTON RED SOX
Key Additions: P Chris Sale (Trade/Chicago White Sox), P Tyler Thornburg (Trade/Milwaukee), 1B/DH Mitch Moreland (FA/Texas), P Kyle Kendrick (FA), Junior Lake (FA/Toronto),
Key Losses: DH David Ortiz (Retirement), 2B Yoan Moncada (Trade/Chicago White Sox), P Clay Buchholz (Trade/Philadelphia), P Brad Ziegler (FA/Miami), P Koji Uehara (FA/Chicago Cubs), P Junichi Tazawa (FA/Miami), C Ryan Hanigan (FA/Philadelphia), 2B Aaron Hill (FA/San Francisco)
Player to Watch: Rick Porcello: The current Cy Young winner is going to have to repeat his 2016 performance if Boston wants to play late October baseball, even with Price and Sale in the rotation.
2017 Outlook: Boston made the biggest move of the off-season by trading for Chris Sale, thus giving them one of the most top-heavy rotations with, him, David Price and Rick Porcello. Of course, Boston got a huge scare with elbow issues from Price as Spring Training started, but seemed to have been calmed a bit. Boston will be strong in the starting rotation barring injury while the Red Sox hope Craig Kimbrel and Tyler Thornburg seal the back end (though Thornburg has shoulder issues). So the starters may need to log in deep innings are there isn't Koji Uehara, Brad Ziegler, or Junichi Tazawa anymore (which is becoming a Dave Dombrowski staple in the sense of having a mediocre bullpen; ask Detroit, Florida, and Montreal). Offensively, while it is difficult to replace Ortiz, one team who can easily do it is Boston with Betts, Bradley, and Bogaerts as still the anchors. Boston tried to replace Ortiz with former Texas slugger Mitch Moreland, but seriously, unless you're Miguel Cabrera, you won't replace David Ortiz. But they should be well enough to win the AL East and play late October baseball.
2017 Projection: 95-67
2. NEW YORK YANKEES
Key Additions: P Aroldis Chapman (FA/Chicago Cubs), OF Matt Holliday (FA/St. Louis), SS Ruben Tejada (FA/San Francisco), 1B Ji-Man Choi (FA/Los Angeles Angels)
Key Losses: C Brian McCann (Trade/Houston), 1B Mark Teixeira (Retired), P Nick Goody (Trade/Cleveland), P Nathan Eovaldi (FA/Tampa Bay), OF/DH Billy Butler (FA), 2B Dustin Ackley (FA/Los Angeles Angels)
Player to Watch: Aroldis Chapman: Chapman returns to the Yankees after a 4 month hiatus in Chicago winning a world championship with the Cubs. He's going to be the stopper and many view him as the best closer in baseball save Kimbrel, but Chapman has the tools to be an all-or-nothing type of guy. So far, the "nothing" is in very small doses like it was at certain points in the playoffs, but sooner or later the doses do increase. He has to avoid it and with $80 million, you do have to wonder if that will be on his mind when the season begins.
2017 Outlook: Oddball feel: the Yankees look to be strong more with the younger players, notably the likes of Gary Sanchez (20 HR in 53 games). It made Brian McCann finally expendable and a lot of the heavy, overpaid contracts come off the books. However, a few issues that may perhaps keep New York from a division title and even perhaps a wild card run is the inabilities of the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury (who has more or less been a flop in New York), Brett Gardner, and Chase Headley at the plate have really not installed a lot of fear into opposing pitchers. Instead, New York will rely on the likes of Mashiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda in the rotation and bringing back Aroldis Chapman really gives the Yankees a jolt. That said, it will be more of the young Yankees and and the addition of Matt Holliday to help out New York in 2017.
2017 Projection: 92-70
3. BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Key Additions: C Welington Castillo (FA/Arizona), OF Seth Smith (Trade/Seattle), P Logan Verrett (Trade/New York Mets), C Jesus Montero (FA), P Tomo Ohka (FA),
Key Losses: C Matt Wieters (FA/Washington), 1B/3B Pedro Alvarez (FA), P Yovani Gallardo (Trade/Seattle), 1B/OF/DH Steve Pearce (FA/Toronto), OF Nolan Reimold (FA), P Brian Duensing (FA/Chicago Cubs), P Tommy Hunter (FA/Tampa Bay), P Vance Worley (FA/Washington)
Player to Watch: Kevin Gausman: Kevin "Gascan" has been the hope for Baltimore with his blazing fastball. He is a quality pitcher for sure, but he will have to curb the HR totals and the hit totals while the WHIP is a bit too high for a guy of his caliber. He's considered the Ace of the Orioles, but he will need to pitch better for Baltimore to have a chance for October baseball.
2017 Outlook: Baltimore has enough offense to compete with Boston, especially if Chris Davis is not an all-or-nothing kind of hitter. They have Manny Machado and Adam Jones while Mark Trumbo came out of nowhere to be a beast for the O's. But it will all rely on pitching. Kevin Gausman and Chris Tillman are the guys heading the rotation, but they will have to pitch far better if they want to go at it with the rest of the teams in the AL East. And Gausman has to be a Cy Young candidate for Baltimore to have a shot in 2017. But I think some of Baltimore's success last year was more of a 1-year thing and it is going to be more of "what-if?" What if Trumbo can repeat his performance? What if Gausman and/or Tillman take that next step? What if the bullpen holds serve?
2017 Projection: 87-75
4. TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Key Additions: DH Kendrys Morales (FA/Kansas City), 1B/DH/OF Steve Pearce (FA/Baltimore), C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (FA/Detroit), P Brett Oberholtzer (FA/Los Angeles Angels), P Jeff Beliveau (FA/Tampa Bay)
Key Losses: OF/1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion (FA/Cleveland), OF Michael Saunders (FA/Philadelphia), P R.A. Dickey (FA/Atlanta), P Joaquin Benoit (FA/Philadelphia), P Brett Cecil (FA/St. Louis), P Scott Feldman (FA/Cincinnati), 1B/OF Chris Colabello (FA/Cleveland), C Dioner Navarro (FA)
Player to Watch: Marcus Stroman. There was plenty of great hope in the great North with Stroman. He was supposed to be Toronto's ace and in the littlest amount of time in 2015, he delivered. In 2016, it wasn't the case as he had a 4.37 ERA with a WHIP of 1.29. Not ace-caliber material. He pitched better in the 2nd half, but not what you really wanted for numbers there either. If he is unable to take that step forward, Toronto is in some trouble in 2017.
2017 Outlook: Toronto lost a few key players in Encarnacion and Saunders and hope that Morales and Pearce fill the void. I am not sure if that will happen though the Jays have a pretty formidable offense, even with the changes. It is more of the fact the Red Sox and Orioles have more. It will be if Marcus Stroman rebounds from an off-season where he was considered the ace of the staff while the Jays are hoping J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez both have repeat or near-repeat years of their performances and Marco Estrada pitches similar though maybe a few runs notched off him. But like Baltimore, too many hypotheticals for Toronto to make me think they can jump ahead of Boston and I think they lost a bit too much on the offensive side.
2017 Projection: 82-80
5. TAMPA BAY RAYS
Key Additions: C Wilson Ramos (FA/Washington), OF Colby Rasmus (FA/Houston), P Shawn Tolleson (FA/Texas), OF Mallex Smith (Trade/Seattle-Atlanta), P Jose De Leon (Trade/Los Angeles Dodgers), P Tommy Hunter (FA/Baltimore), P Nathan Eovaldi (FA/New York Yankees)
Key Losses: 2B Logan Forsythe (Trade/Los Angeles Dodgers), Drew Smyly (Trade/Seattle), OF Mikie Mahtook (Trade/Detroit), P Dylan Floro (Waivers/Chicago Cubs), P Kevin Jepsen (FA/Arizona), P Steve Geltz (FA/Los Angeles Dodgers)
Player to Watch: Chris Archer. Similar to Stroman, Archer was an ace in the making, but didn't live up to the expectations (4.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) the Rays had for him. But he did pitch far better in the 2nd half (3.25 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP) so there is hope for him to pitch like the Rays hoped. But Rays fans may have to hold their breath to an extent. If he gets too good he may be a key trade piece at the deadline.
2017 Outlook: The Rays added veteran depth with the likes of Ramos (who won't play until July) and Rasmus, but it is vintage Tampa Bay 1998-2007 where they just added free agents as many really didn't want these guys. Probably for good reason. But the days of Joe Maddon are long gone and really outside of Longoria and Kiermaier, the Rays do not have a whole lot going for them. Tampa is hoping Jose De Leon is the real deal after trading away Logan Forsythe to get him so we'll see. But even if De Leon pans out, it will really be 2018 when we see it. Until then, Tropicana Field will be a cavern.
2017 Projection: 63-99
QUESTIONS TO PONDER IN THE AL EAST:
1. Will Boston under Dave Dombrowski start using the farm system less cautiously than ever? Yes. Dombrowski, while the motto has never been "I never met a trade I didn't like," is very liberal in using the farm to make a trade. Just look at the players he got to go to the Tigers, especially Cabrera. There is a catch-22 situation: you get the guys you need for a pennant run, but your farm starts to collapse. It has happened with the Tigers. And the two trades he made this off-season with the White Sox and Brewers were steep prices if you ask me.
2. Will the Yankees really have the young guns help them out this year? I think so. I don't think Gary Sanchez hits 80 HR or anything insane like that, but he will be a strong contributor to the Bronx Bombers and it seemed like when the aging veterans left the clubhouse, the Yankees played like they were having fun.
3. Do the Jays have enough to get back to October? Yes, but everything needs to go RIGHT for them. I don't think the likes of Happ, Estrada, and Sanchez will duplicate what they did in 2016, but Stroman can get it together. It is Toronto's key issue right now. But they also lost a good bit of offense with Encarnacion (despite me thinking that he was more beneficial in playing in the AL East) and Saunders.
4. What is one that can easily fall apart in the AL East? Baltimore. The Orioles didn't do much to improve the roster in the off-season and I don't think you will see a repeat of 2013 or 2015 with Chris Davis any. And if Adam Jones doesn't have a better year, I can see them being a .500 or under squad. And they need help outside of Gausman and Tillman, especially if they have to deal with facing the aces of Boston or the Yankees.
5. How hot is Kevin Cash's seat? Very. I get Tampa Bay isn't like the other AL East spots where losing is totally unacceptable and he doesn't have a roster that is going to be fully competitive, but Joe Maddon had similar rosters down there and he fared out very well with it. I can see the Rays, if they get off to a sluggish start or are near the bottom of the Majors make a change early on in the season.
That's it for now. The NL East is next week!
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
