The Magnificent Eleven: The 11 Remaining Teams With ANY Shot at the College Football Playoff
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
The season is wrapping up. Save outside of Louisville getting drubbed by Houston, thus ending their chances (especially after Clemson finished Wake Forest to win the Atlantic Division of the ACC), last week was an uneventful week of college football, well compared to the week before.
But anyway, from my perspective, 11 teams are still have a chance of making the college football playoff. But inside the 11, everything is very murky in terms of which 4 out of those 11 will make it.
Michigan's playoff scenario has probably the clearest path: win out.
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
I remember as a kid seeing in the sports sections of newspapers (remember those?) of NFL teams in the last two weeks have playoff scenarios of how to get in. I loved that. With college football having a playoff (albeit a selection committee), things are a bit different though conference titles are heavily weighted. People are for that, some are not. This year that will possibly be put to the test if the committee selects one, MAYBE two teams who do not win their conference. But I think 11 teams have a legit chance of making the playoff. Here we go.
1. ALABAMA:
GETS IN PLAYOFF IF: They win SEC Championship or maybe win one of final two.
I think many are banking Alabama to roll over Auburn at home and then Florida in Atlanta. As dominant as the Tide are, I think they should win both. But Iron Bowl games are pretty much never easy for the Tide, even if Auburn is worse than Alabama. And Florida put up a fight with them last year. As funny as it sounds, Alabama could lose the Iron Bowl and keep their #1 rank let alone not have any major effect, just as so long as they beat Florida. One other option might be Alabama possibly losing the SEC Championship, pending on how the rest of the nation goes. I don't see either one happening though. PLAYOFF CHANCES: 9/10
2. OHIO STATE:
GETS IN PLAYOFF IF: They beat Michigan and Penn State loses to Michigan State then wins Big Ten Championship OR Win and Wisconsin/Nebraska wins Big Ten Championship and USC/Washington State wins PAC-12
This is why everything is so sticky for the playoff this year. Ohio State DOESN'T control their destiny in the Big Ten East as it is right now they are the 3rd option in the division (that is if Michigan wins Saturday). Ohio State presents a major situation which also affects the Big 12 if Oklahoma wins. I think at the very least if Ohio State wins Saturday, the Big 12 gets shut out of the playoff once more because of the 21 point win the Bucks had on the Sooners in Norman. An 11-1 Buckeyes team UNDER a 10-2 Oklahoma team where Ohio State won the head-to-head? The committee cannot be that naive. The reason why they probably go even without winning a title is if Wisconsin (whom Ohio State won in OT in Madison) or Nebraska (where Ohio State dismantled the Cornhuskers just a few weeks ago) win, it looks far better for their resume, adding wins against Michigan and Oklahoma. I added the fact of the PAC-12 winner because the committee might select Washington and maybe even Colorado over Ohio State because of the conference championship bit. PLAYOFF CHANCES: 7/10
3. MICHIGAN:
GETS IN PLAYOFF IF: They beat Ohio State and then beat Nebraska/Wisconsin in Big Ten Championship.
Pretty much simple as that. Beat Ohio State in Columbus. Beat Nebraska/Wisconsin. However, the QB situation makes things sticky for the Wolverines and I am not sure if Michigan can stun the Buckeyes in Columbus. But hey, the last time a team lost their starting QB going to Columbus from the Great Lake State, that team won, so who knows? PLAYOFF CHANCES: 3/10
4. CLEMSON:
GETS IN PLAYOFF IF: Wins ACC Championship.
Similar to Alabama a bit. They could probably take another hit against South Carolina but given the love for the Tigers, I think they could remain in the playoff. Probably not wise though. But they need to play better than what they have played, even last game against Wake wasn't overly impressive as they mailed it in the 2nd half. PLAYOFF CHANCES: 8/10
5. WASHINGTON:
GETS IN PLAYOFF IF: Beats Washington State and wins PAC-12 Championship.
This is where it might get murky. Let's say Alabama and Clemson do their parts and win out. Two spots filled. Penn State wins out and Ohio State beats Michigan while Washington wins out. Do you A. Put Washington over Ohio State or B. Keep Ohio State over Washington? Honestly, looking at the committee's eyes, I think the Huskies get the nod for playing the 13th game and winning the conference over the 11-1 non-conference champ Buckeyes. Obviously, the Huskies get in at #3 at that point-or should. But they have a road game in Washington State for the Apple Cup (not easy) and IF they win that game, they go to the PAC-12 championship either against Colorado who has played great ball all season (definitely not easy) or USC, the team that beat them easily in Seattle and probably playing the best ball in the conference. The path is straight, but incredibly difficult for the Huskies at this point. PLAYOFF CHANCES: 3/10
6. WISCONSIN:
GETS IN PLAYOFF IF: Beats Minnesota and wins Big Ten Championship and either a Washington State/USC/Colorado Champ in PAC-12 or ACC Coastal Conference champ.
Wisconsin is also a simple one too. They just have to win out. And they probably end up with 2 losses. But the question might be will they propel over Ohio State, a team that beat them and has one fewer loss? My guess is they still get in with help. It will have to be the PAC-12 where it comes from. It's feasible given Washington's task, but Minnesota won't be easy nor facing off against the Big Ten East Champ. PLAYOFF CHANCES: 5/10
7. PENN STATE:
GETS IN PLAYOFF IF: Beats Michigan State and Ohio State beats Michigan and wins Big Ten Championship
This might be more cut & dry with Penn State than Wisconsin given the fact the Nittany Lions beat Ohio State. I could see Penn State get the nod over Ohio State despite the extra loss because of the committee's conference title weight. And the road at this point seems straight but a bit bumpy. Yes, the 2016 Michigan State team is awful record wise but they have been in most games and the Lions probably get Wisconsin in the championship if they beat the Spartans (assuming Ohio State wins Saturday). If they win that game, I don't see how Penn State doesn't get in to the playoff. PLAYOFF CHANCES: 5/10
8. COLORADO:
GETS IN PLAYOFF IF: Beats Utah, wins PAC 12 AND Michigan/Nebraska wins Big Ten.
What Colorado does might solely depend on what Michigan does of all things and will jump Oklahoma for a spot if everything pans out for the Buffaloes. Before anybody says "well, Oklahoma is ranked and deserves to be ranked over Colorado!" Let me say a few things first: 1. Colorado would play 13 games, Oklahoma 12 (and that has been a sticking point the last two years for the Big 12 as especially Big Ten teams have jumped over the Big 12 Conference Champs), and the resumes in terms of both teams would have the Buffaloes winning 3 games against top 25 teams, the same amount of Oklahoma top 25 wins while Colorado did lose to Michigan IN Michigan by 17 and Oklahoma lost to Ohio State by 21 at home. But the Buffaloes REALLY need Michigan or a long-time Colorado foe Nebraska to win the Big Ten somehow (meaning Minnesota has to beat Wisconsin). So the hope really depends on Michigan at this point for Colorado to take care of business. PLAYOFF CHANCES: 3/10.
9. OKLAHOMA:
GETS IN PLAYOFF IF: Beats Oklahoma State, Ohio State loses to Michigan, and has Nebraska, ACC Coastal Winner, AND USC/Washington State win conferences.
The Sooners need desperate help, but still have a shot. Yes, they got their first playoff resume win. Despite they are ahead of the Gators, a 2-loss SEC Champ would be ahead of them. Any team not named Nebraska still in the Big Ten Championship will be ahead of them. So you now need the Coastal Champ from the ACC to beat Clemson and either USC or Washington State go. But if Ohio State wins Saturday, I think everything is shut out for the Sooners. Not even the Committee would propel the Sooners ahead of the Buckeyes with that head-to-head matchup. And plus, Big 12 fans can say what they want, but that 13th game that Oklahoma doesn't play stings them. Stung them last year when Michigan State jumped ahead of them for the 3rd spot. PLAYOFF CHANCES: 1/10
10. OKLAHOMA STATE:
GETS IN PLAYOFF IF: Beats Oklahoma, Ohio State loses to Michigan; Nebraska (maybe Penn State?), ACC Coastal Champ, AND Colorado/Washington State win PAC-12:
Similar to Oklahoma. But I do think the Cowboys of all things might have a better chance at getting in than their Bedlam rival largely because they avoided Ohio State. The Cowboys might even get the nod over Penn State at this point given they beat Pitt while Penn State did lose to them albeit early. But still, everything needs to fall in place for that to happen. PLAYOFF CHANCES: 1/10
11. FLORIDA:
GETS IN PLAYOFF IF: Beats Florida State and Alabama for SEC Championship
Beating Alabama alone will spike any team's chances. But if they could beat the Noles in Tallahassee and then turn around and beat Alabama the week after, that will easily get them in. But both tasks are insanely huge. I don't see them winning either game though. But what if, just what if they lose to Florida State and beat Alabama? Then everything changes................again and this post is as relevant as Louisville's playoff chances now. PLAYOFF CHANCES: 1/10
As for Nebraska, I don't see them having a legit shot for the 66-3 loss by the Buckeyes a few weeks back, even if they win out.
MY OBSTRUCTED PREDICTION: Alabama wins out, Clemson wins out, Ohio State beats Michigan but Wisconsin beats Penn State in Big Ten Championship, Washington loses to Washington State in Apple Cup while Colorado wins out, but won't be enough and Bedlam won't matter (Sooners win that game). So my playoff teams as of today would be: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Wisconsin.
Ask me again next week however.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
