The Obstructed 2017 MLB Preview
We are on the eve of a new season. And Hope Springs Eternal for 30 teams (well, maybe not a few, but I know there have to be some diehards out there). I did my predictions on the divisions earlier in the past month so I won't re-hash that. But I will do this: I will make my predictions on MVP's, Cy Youngs, and others. Only right.
But first.....
TEAMS WHO HAVE LITTLE-TO-NO CHANCE OF OCTOBER BASEBALL: Rays, Twins, Reds, Athletics, Angels, Padres, Diamondbacks, White Sox. Sorry fans of these teams. I just can't see any of them being a legit shot. I know the Twins have a group of touted prospects, but overall they haven't panned out. Tampa Bay is young, but again, I just don't see a whole lot of talent outside of Longoria, Kiermaier, etc. The Reds can hit, but that is it. The A's are just filling a roster at this point. The Angels are Mike Trout and Mike Trout only. San Diego is a good bit away from making a huge push. And Arizona has made some sketchy moves (though the Taijuan Walker trade was a good one). Chicago is an interesting case because they can be competitive, but probably would rather get more prospects. They could be in the next category for me.
TEAMS WHO WILL BE COMPETITIVE, BUT MORE SUITED FOR 2018: Braves, Marlins, Phillies, Brewers, Rockies. Atlanta ran out and got veterans like Brandon Phillips, Bartolo Colon, etc. but really the young guys are what the Braves have in place. The Phillies are in a similar boat. The Marlins are still trying to pick up the pieces of Jose Fernandez and have no legit ace. Milwaukee could be a sleeper in this whole thing, but pitching will be a question. And we know Colorado can mash, but the staff historically gets mashed. There are young guns with the arms in Denver though.
TEAMS THAT CAN BE REALLY GOOD OR REALLY BAD: Royals, Pirates. Kansas City is not really the same power they were when they represented the AL in 2014 and 2015 and losing Ventura hurts. But the pitching hasn't held up and that is what really kills them. They didn't do anything in my eyes to really give them a jolt to re-take the AL Central away from the Indians. PIttsburgh is surprising in the sense of they SHOULD be good with the young arms and the young players like Marte, Cole, and Polanco leading the way, but something seems to really stick out in a negative manner.
TEAMS THAT WILL COMPETE FOR THE WILD CARD: Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners, Rangers, Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals. Pretty much I classify these as teams who are strong enough to make it but there are some holes that they need to fix before October or else they will only be considered a Wild Card team. Boston has the offense and should have starting pitching, but the key word is "should" and not overly sold on the pen just yet. Baltimore is in a similar boat, though the starting pitching needs to come around while it is a similar story in both Toronto and Detroit. Seattle looks to continue to be more offensive oriented, but they need Hernandez to get back to his old Cy Young ways. The Rangers.......well, similar thing. Need pitching outside of Darvish and Hamels. The Yankees look like they are having a strong youth movement, but with youth, it is hard to see if they can maintain it for 162. With the NL, the Dodgers will need to get more offense in their outfield with Puig and Pederson having to step up soon. The Mets need more offense as well and the Cardinals will have to stay healthy for a season, something that got them the last few seasons.
POWERHOUSES: Indians, Astros, Cubs, Giants, Nationals. Cleveland looks to have the best team in the AL for the second straight year and they have a strong, balanced roster all throughout. Houston has made huge steps in the offseason, adding key veterans like McCann, Beltran, and Reddick. The NL, the Cubs, while losing Fowler, and Chapman, still have a powerful group from top to bottom. The Giants solidified their bullpen woes from a year ago. And the Nationals are considered a powerhouse because there is talent all throughout, but the question is, will it ever get to be utilized?
So let's check on the Picks I have for October:
AL East Winner: Boston
AL Central Winner: Cleveland
AL West Winner: Houston
Wild Cards: New York Yankees, Detroit
NL East Winner: Washington
NL Central Winner: Chicago Cubs
NL West Winner: San Francisco:
Wild Cards: Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis
Wild Card games:
Tigers over Yankees
Cardinals over Dodgers
ALDS:
Astros over Tigers
Indians over Red Sox
NLDS:
Cubs over Cardinals
Giants over Nationals
ALCS:
Astros over Indians
NLCS:
Cubs over Giants
World Series:
Cubs over Astros
MY TAKE ON ALL OF IT: Many have ripped Detroit for not doing much, but they're good enough to still be a threat. They can be as hot as any team. Hence why I do have them getting back to October baseball one final time with the group they have and I think a Tigers/Astros series would be pushed to 5. Houston just has better pitching all around which gives the nod. I think the Indians and Astros could either go to the World Series, but something keeps me from going all in on Cleveland this season though they may be the BEST team in the AL. On the other side, the Cardinals will get back to their ways and get in October once more, but I think the Cubs would be too much. The Giants pitching would just stymie the Nationals bats and have Washington's window opening start to narrow and it would be a fight with Chicago. The Cubs I think would be too much for Houston in the end.
AL MVP: MIKE TROUT (ANGELS): Notice how nobody is griping about Trout winning on a team that was mediocre last year compared to A-Rod and when he won it on a lowly Rangers squad in 2003. But Trout is just a beast. Too bad he is on a team that really has no shot at October.
NL MVP: STARLING MARTE (PIRATES): IF Marte can keep healthy, you could see him lead the league in average, doubles, triples, have 25+ HR and 70 SB. And on top of that, he can win a Gold Glove. If Pittsburgh can gel with their rotation and get some key pieces in that bullpen as well as have a rebound year from McCutchen (and keep him), the Pirates could really make havoc in 2017.
AL CY YOUNG: KEVIN GAUSMAN (ORIOLES): The obvious choices are always going to be Sale, Verlander, Porcello (now), Price, King Felix, etc. But I think Gausman puts everything together in 2017 for Baltimore. They need him to in order for the Orioles to stay in the thick of a playoff race. But I think this makes up for Arrieta.
NL CY YOUNG: CLAYTON KERSHAW (DODGERS): If he wasn't injured, he'd be the winner of it last year too. He's just flat-out sick.
AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: AARON JUDGE (YANKEES): This guy could be the next big Yankee. Even if he puts up similar numbers to any kind of rookie, he will get voted in.
NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: DANSBY SWANSON (BRAVES): There is a lot of hope for Swanson in Atlanta with a new ballpark and trying to get fans in through the gates. He's a hometown boy, but unlike previous hometown kids of Jeff Francoeur and Jason Heyward where they buckled, he seems to take everything in stride. And he got some at-bats last year to really help his cause.
AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR: AJ HINCH (ASTROS): He has gotten the Astros rolling. This year, everything pans out for Hinch.
NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR: BRUCE BOCHY (GIANTS): Unless a team in the NL comes out of nowhere....Bochy out of the three division winners probably doesn't have the same amount of talent as the others.
TWO PLAYERS IN NL THAT WILL BE TRADED BY THE DEADLINE: Ryan Braun (Brewers), Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks). Even if Milwaukee is competitive, I can see the Brewers move him to get a nice sum and maybe MLB-ready talent. It's possible to see it happen. Greinke probably would veto a trade pending on where it may be. So my ideas of where these two go for Braun is the Dodgers and Greinke to the Astros
TWO PLAYERS IN THE AL THAT WILL BE TRADED BY THE DEADLINE: Jose Quintana (White Sox) and Stephen Vogt (Athletics). Quintana was evidently close to being moved this off-season and if he pitches great, I can see him net a large sum back for the Pale Hose. I think the ChiSox raid Washington a second time for their prospects. If not Washington, a sleeper could be St. Louis. As for Vogt, Oakland knows no limits and need prospects or at least something in return. And at this point, he could go anywhere. The Mets would be the best bet given Travis d'Arnaud's injury struggles and struggles at the plate.
MANAGER ON THE HOTTEST SEAT IN THE NL: Bryan Price (Reds). Yes, Cincinnati is not exactly a hotbed for contention right now but if they struggle early and quickly, he will be in the unemployment line. Also keep an eye on Walt Weiss and Clint Hurdle if the Pirates scuffle.
MANAGER ON THE HOTTEST SEAT IN THE AL: Kevin Cash (Rays). Again, Tampa Bay doesn't have a lot for them but it wasn't like Joe Maddon had a lot to work with either in Tampa Bay. Fair or not, Cash is in a world of trouble if the Rays crash and burn at any moment. Brad Ausmus could also be let go if the Tigers get off to a slow start.
That's pretty much it. Look forward to a great 2017 season!
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
