The Obstructed AFC Divisional Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Another playoff game, another rematch of a regular season tilt. The Steelers thumped the Chiefs in Pittsburgh earlier this year 43-14. After that game though, Kansas City went on a tear, winning 10 of their final 12 games en route to the AFC West championship and a 1st round bye. Pittsburgh had their moments, but they are also clicking as they have won 7 in a row and doing it with their high powered offense. Kansas City will have to exorcise some demons in terms of playoffs as they have been woeful (until last year), but they are playing in Arrowhead, which is the good news. The bad news? The last time the Chiefs won a playoff game at home was 1993, when Joe Montana was the quarterback. However, their opponent that day? The Pittsburgh Steelers. So which history repeats itself? The Chiefs home playoff woes or ending of the woes by beating the same team they last beat at home in the playoffs?
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 1:05, SUNDAY, NBC:
PITTSBURGH WINS IF:
Kansas City has lived off the turnover this year.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
1. THEY DO NOT TURN THE BALL OVER: If you look at the numbers, Kansas City may have overachieved this year thanks to big plays and key turnovers. Some of the games they won (Atlanta) they had big plays that turned the game around for them, and most of it has been via turnover. Roethlisberger has been typical Roethlisberger but has made more than a few ill-advised passes over the season, even in the blowout win against Miami. Pittsburgh can win this game if they do not turn the ball over at all. Anything past 1 turnover, and it is a problem.
Hill has been a game-changer for KC this season.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
2. AVOID GIVING UP THE BIG PLAY, NOTABLY FROM TYREEK HILL: Tyreek Hill has been this Chiefs Era's version of Dante Hall, maybe even more impactful. I think he has been Kansas City's MVP this season. The thing is though, you cannot have him running around creating havoc if you are going to try to win. It just hasn't worked for teams who have faced off against Kansas City. If you stop their big plays and the playmakers, the Chiefs will have a difficult time scoring. And given how Pittsburgh really did a good job of shutting down Jay Ajayi last week, it is possible they can do the same here.
Big Ben has issues when he is pressured a good bit.
James Lang-USA TODAY Sports
3. ROETHLISBERGER IS PROTECTED: When Roethlisberger is under pressure is when he has his issues. Decisions passing the ball in this way has not been his strongest suit, especially this season. While he is big, he is not a guy that is incredibly mobile. They've got to protect him as much as possible. If not, Pittsburgh will have issues all game moving the ball, even if they have the best RB/WR duo in the NFL.
The Steelers need to keep Ware at bay.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
4. MAKE KANSAS CITY ONE-DIMENSIONAL: Aside from Hill, the Chiefs offense is average at best. They are 19th in passing and 13th in rushing. If they can stop the run and make Alex Smith into a passer, even with the issues the Steelers have on defense, it will be to their advantage. The Chiefs aren't an offense that can put up 21 points in a quarter, regardless of who they play.
Bell could really slam the door on the Chiefs season, especially in the 4th.
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5. ATTACK IN THE 4TH QUARTER REGARDLESS: Whether they have a lead, tie, or are behind, Pittsburgh needs to just go after the Chiefs in the 4th quarter on offense. The Chiefs especially when they have a lead, like to sit back on their lead and it costed them a game at home with Tennessee late in the season. And if they have a lead, pressure the Chiefs to make a few scores instead of a score. They have Bell. Use him because he could have a great day against the 26th ranked defense against the run.
KANSAS CITY WINS IF:
The Chiefs defense will have a tough task defending Bell.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
1. THEY STOP BELL: As I mentioned before Le'Veon Bell could have a big day against the Chiefs and their problematic defense against the run. If Bell runs up and down the field, it will be a long day for the Chiefs and their fans at Arrowhead. Kansas City cannot shut down all aspects of Pittsburgh's offense and their monster of Roethlisberger/Bell/Brown, but if they make Bell a non-factor, they could have success against the Steelers passing game. But if they can't stop Bell..................uh oh.
Plays like punt-fakes, punt returns, and pick sixes are what the Chiefs need to get the crowd amped.
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
2. GET AN EARLY SCORE OR A BIG PLAY SCORE: Kansas City has what many believe is a great homefield advantage, one of the best in the NFL. Get them riled up by a first drive TD, big play TD, etc. but they got to get an early one to get the crowd remain amped up all game. If they don't, it might be a tough time getting the fans pumped. Teams who have gone into Kansas City and take early leads on the Chiefs, it does take some air out of the crowd early on to the visitors' advantage.
The Chiefs have to attack Big Ben all game.
Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
3. PRESSURE ROETHLISBERGER: You'll either sack him or cause turnovers, where Kansas City reigns supreme and Roethlisberger has issues turning the ball over. If they can get 2 or 3 turnovers I like the Chiefs chances. This might decide the game actually of how Pittsburgh protects Roethlisberger.
The Chiefs conservative approach in the 4th quarter has costed them or nearly cost them some wins this season.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
4. STAY AGGRESSIVE IN THE 4TH QUARTER, EVEN WITH A LEAD: If Kansas City holds the lead and sits back on it on both sides of the ball, they will lose. It is that simple. They have to attack, going after Roethlisberger and making sure he doesn't pick apart the defense. On the other side, aim for the first downs every chance they get and try to punch one in to make things more miserable for the Steelers. Pittsburgh is not a team you can sit a lead on. They will hurt you.
Smith will have to manage the clock almost perfectly.
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
5. WIN THE TIME OF POSSESSION WAR DECISIVELY: Same thing as I mentioned earlier. Keep the strongest trio of Ben/Brown/Bell on the sideline with long drives, but staying aggressive and getting first downs. It will keep the defense fresh while the Steelers defense weakened and use Kelce to bully the defense around. And win it by a wide margin. Pittsburgh could still run Kansas City off the field even if the Chiefs have the ball longer by an extra minute or two.
MY PREDICTION: I have not been on the Chiefs bandwagon all year and don't plan on being on it. I am not sold on them. Do I think they have been great at turning the ball over and making big plays? Yes. But when the playoffs begin, those plays more or less don't happen. Pittsburgh has the vast experience of playoff games and in hostile environments while Kansas City has those playoff demons. I don't think the Chiefs have any answer for Bell, which will open up the passing game for Pittsburgh and I don't see Alex Smith beating the Steelers with his arm, even if Pittsburgh's passing defense is average. The crowd will be amped, but I think by the third quarter, the Steelers take the crowd out of it and they handle Kansas City at Arrowhead. STEELERS 38, CHIEFS 21
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
