The Obstructed NCAA Preview for Week 6
So........this is a late blog post before the games and I would have done Clemson/Boston College as one of my picks, but just a mega busy week (which explains why I only had my Kevin Sumlin post as my one for the week-by the way, check it out here). So it might not be the best of analyses I've done for a weekly preview (but I am not really an analyst anyway, just a blowhard fan by all accounts who talks out of their posterior sometimes). But whatever.
Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports
Last week I went 10-5 with my picks, so not the hottest of weeks (Florida State, Michigan State, Utah, TCU, and Missouri doomed me in) so I am now 38-17 on the season. Meh. I guess it isn't too bad, is it?
NOTRE DAME @ NC STATE, 12:00, ABC: Brian Kelly is probably the most scrutinized head coach now that Les Miles is gone from LSU. And the thing is, he got himself in that position after the Duke loss, blaming everybody and their mothers for the loss BUT himself. He even canned Brian VanGorder (though some Notre Dame fans that I am friends with say the AD said either you make changes or I will), albeit deserving of the firing. They beat Syracuse last week, but that doesn't hold a lot of water at this point and he will remain scrutinized. And NC State is a far better program than Syracuse.........and Duke. And it is in Raleigh, where the Wolfpack are pretty good at Carter-Finley Stadium. And given how the area is a giant mess with Hurricane Matthew, anything is possible, but this is not a game that Brian Kelly wants to play in. I think NC State gets the Irish here with their balanced offensive attack. Still could be high scoring, but I think Notre Dame will make too many mistakes. MY PREDICTION: NC STATE 34, NOTRE DAME 31
MARYLAND @ PENN STATE, 12:00, BTN: Yes, Maryland is on here, largely because they are 4-0. But they have ran roughshod so far. Granted it was against nobody at this point (and Purdue is nobody). Penn State has gone 3-2 and their wins are also against really nobody. The two losses were to Pitt and then the beatdown in Ann Arbor by Michigan. I figured at the beginning of the year that the Terps and Lions would be at these records, but how they have gotten there has been somewhat surprising. Penn State is too inconsistent on both sides of the ball for me to think they are going to win this one actually while Maryland seems to have fire on all cylinders. If the Terps win, this could be a team that MIGHT spoil somebody in the Big Ten East. And it will also put James Franklin squarely on the hot seat. MY PREDICTION: MARYLAND 33, PENN STATE 27
IOWA @ MINNESOTA, 12:00, ESPNU: How tides have changed with the Hawkeyes. After going to the Big Ten Championship and seconds away from a playoff berth at 13-0, they are pretty much clinging on for dear life in the Big Ten West after their home loss to Northwestern. So, what do the Hawkeyes need to do to get back? Play better defense obviously. 38 points allowed at home? Not good. Minnesota lost a heartbreaker in Happy Valley last week and they have somewhat surprised many for their early start. I am not sure however if they have played anybody of real quality to this point, but the game is at home for them. That said, I think the Gophers will have a challenge handling a physical team like Iowa, who will be playing angry. MY PREDICTION: IOWA 28, MINNESOTA 16
AUBURN @ MISSISSIPPI STATE, 12:00, ESPN: This game is hard to figure out. Anytime you think you have a pulse on what the Tigers will do, they do the opposite. Same goes for Mississippi State. Is Auburn's offense back on track or is it just smooth when they are playing lesser quality opponents? Mississippi State, is their defense solid or is it against lesser quality offenses? So we might find an answer today in Davis Wade. I think the key advantage will be that the game is in Starkville, in the land of Cowbells. And this is Auburn's first game away from Jordan Hare. I will give the slight advantage to Mississippi State here. MY PREDICTION: MISSISSIPPI STATE 20, AUBURN 14
TEXAS VS. (20) OKLAHOMA, FS1: Well, points will be put up in this one as the concept of defense has been largely ignored. However, the big news this week has been the rumblings of Charlie Strong possibly being canned by the end of the season (which means more Nick Saban rumors again?). Strong demoted his defensive coordinator and is taking over on that end, where he was strong (no pun intended) in Florida. So time will tell if the move pays off. But ironically, there are now rumblings of the Sooners fan base being angry with Bob Stoops and how this season has not gone to as planned. Yes, they beat TCU but nearly blew a huge lead in that game. So really, whoever loses this game, the temperature on the hot seat will be very very high. My guess is, with the move of Strong putting more of his hands on the defense, he will get them to respond better. I haven't seen the Sooners really respond after their losses yet. MY PREDICTION: TEXAS 41, OKLAHOMA 38
GEORGIA TECH @ PITT 12:30: Speaking of guys on hot seats, Paul Johnson. He starts off 3-0 but then plays Clemson and loses. Plays Miami and loses. The thing is simple with Tech when you play them: jump on them early. And that is an easy thing to do if you are a high quality program like most of the teams in the ACC has and are disciplined enough. And are familiar with how Tech's offense works. In other words, they are predictable as predictable can come. The biggest question will be can Tech pass the ball worth a flip? Pitt has shown they are very suspect against the pass. If the Jackets can do that, they have a shot. If not, this will be another long game for Johnson and get the Tech fan base wanting a new head coach. MY PREDICTION: PITT 34, GEORGIA TECH 21
BYU @ MICHIGAN STATE, 3:30 ESPN2/ABC: In a rare non-conference game that doesn't involve Notre Dame in October for a major school, this is that game. Michigan State is reeling a bit with two straight losses (first time that has happened since 2012) and the major issue is making foolish, silly mistakes which is very unlike a Dantonio team. The captains had a players only meeting to talk and get the team fired up. BYU has a good defense at the very least so it could be problematic for the Spartans to move the ball, unless they can stay out of trouble with the yellow flags. If the Spartans play smarter, this game could be easily had. MY PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE 27, BYU 14
(25) VIRGINIA TECH @ (17) NORTH CAROLINA ESPN2/ABC: What kind of UNC squad will be up today after their dramatic win against Florida State last week? They have won the last two weeks pretty much on the last play. And Virginia Tech is nothing to sneer at either, especially seeing them back in the top 25. The offense is rolling and the defense remains strong so this could pose a bigger problem for the Tar Heels than they might want. But I think the offense will give the Hokies defense fits and with homefield on their side, I think the Heels win this game but it might be another last play to do it. MY PREDICTION: NORTH CAROLINA 41, VIRGINIA TECH 38
(9) TENNESSEE @ (8) TEXAS A&M, 3:30, CBS: The game of the week and probably could decide the fate of the SEC East if Tennessee wins. The Vols have the emotional high after winning in Georgia on the Hail Mary. But no Jalen Hurd this week, which will pose a big issue. But let's face it, the Vols so far have pulled Michigan State's page from last year and coming out with miraculous plays. I don't think it continues this weekend in College Station. Honestly, the Vols have gotten away with it against some less talented teams (App State, Ohio), teams trying to figure things out with their coaches (Virginia Tech, Georgia), or teams who have coaches making some brain-dead decisions (Florida and Georgia again). Out of their 5 wins, Tennessee has been down by double digits in 4 of those games. If they get down by double digits to the Aggies in College Station, this game will get out of control and fast. Texas A&M's defense IS legit as we have seen so far this year. And Kevin Sumlin will NOT play conservative on the Vols in the 2nd half, so it might be very ugly come the 4th quarter. MY PREDICTION: TEXAS A&M 44, TENNESSEE 21
(1) ALABAMA @ (16) ARKANSAS, 7:00, ESPN: The last two years the Razorbacks have given Alabama major fits. This year it seems Arkansas looks primed for a possible upset. They are a better team than the last time they played in Fayetteville (Alabama won 14-13 to a bad Razorback squad), but honestly, the Tide's defense THIS year is off the charts good. If Arkansas can't pass the ball today, Alabama should have this game. But the game is in Arkansas so anything is possible (though Alabama hasn't lost a road game since 2014). A lot is also talked about Alabama's offense and how streaky they are, but I think it is much ado about nothing. Just as long as Kiffin can try to establish the run game early on or get Hurts out of the pocket, they should be okay. But the one thing that does make me wonder is how much of the "emotion card" will be played for Arkansas and their offensive lineman who lost his father this week? Never underestimate that. This game might be close though on paper Alabama should win. MY PREDICTION: ALABAMA 20, ARKANSAS 17
TEXAS TECH @ KANSAS STATE, 7:00, ESPNU: The Wildcats are one of the few Big 12 schools that ATTEMPT to play defense. Texas Tech fans were probably excited they held Kansas to 19 points last week, which is actually a surprise coming from the Red Raiders. But the Wildcats are more of a physical squad which to me is bad news for the Red Raiders. I think Texas Tech will have a bit of difficulty moving the ball on K-State. On the other side, if the Wildcats can get into a rhythm early, it will be a very long day for the Red Raiders. MY PREDICTION: KANSAS STATE 48, TEXAS TECH 38
(5) WASHINGTON @ OREGON, 7:30, FOX: This game has normally been a top 5 team vs. an unranked, near .500 or below team the last few years. Just that it normally has been Oregon as the top 5 while Washington was languishing. We saw what the Huskies did to Stanford and just own them. They can beat you on both sides of the ball. Oregon has been exposed as being a small and non-physical while just being out-gunned on really both sides of the ball now. Outscoring their opponents isn't working either anymore as the team's offense has taken a step or two back. It is no wonder Mark Helfrich is on the hot seat. And he is also a guy right now who seems to be bothered by the rumblings of his possible dismissal. This isn't the game for him to have that. One analyst said after the Ducks loss to Washington State last week that the Huskies are going to play a sleeping giant. My take is, the Mariota battery is no longer inside the giant's back and they are still asleep. The Ducks look like a beaten team as it is. MY PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 52, OREGON 26
(23) FLORIDA STATE @ (10) MIAMI, 8:00, ABC: What a difference a month makes. People had put FSU as the ACC favorite and a perennial power. But we are seeing that the Noles have massive issues on defense as they allowed 30 or more in 4 of their 5 games. And right now, add in that the Noles have issues in the kicking game and it is becoming a slow disaster. And the Hurricanes under Mark Richt are firing on all cylinders. Offense, defense, and special teams. So, a 3rd loss for Florida State this early? More than possible as I think Miami will have a field day on offense and I think the Canes will make necessary stops to take down the Noles. MY PREDICTION: MIAMI 41, FLORIDA STATE 27
UCLA @ ARIZONA STATE, 10:30, ESPN2: Did the Bruins find what they lost on offense last week? I think so. That or it is just they played a team that doesn't play defense worth a poo. So this week Josh Rosen could have another big game against a mediocre defense. And if the Bruins are able to make a couple of stops on the Sun Devils quick strike offense, it doesn't matter where this game is played, the Bruins will walk out on top. MY PREDICTION: UCLA 44, ARIZONA STATE 37
WASHINGTON STATE @ (15) STANFORD, 10:30, ESPN: The Huskies exposed Stanford for being what they really are: a 1-dimensional offensive team. If McCaffrey is stopped, Stanford becomes a house of cards and will fall in on itself. Now, I don't see Washington State having the same success though as their in-state rivals did, especially in Palo Alto, but if they could get a few stops they could make a game out of it. But I am not sure if they can and we could see McCaffrey have a huge day once again. But the Cardinal defense must improve better as well after that poor showing too. They might exact some revenge this week though the Cougars offense is nothing to sneer at whatsoever. MY PREDICTION: STANFORD 37, WASHINGTON STATE 28
GEORGIA @ SOUTH CAROLINA, 2:30 SEC (SUNDAY): This game was pushed because of Hurricane Matthew. How does it affect both teams psychologically? It might be more on Georgia given they are the road team here. But they are probably still stinging from the loss to Tennessee as well so they are very much itching to get back on the field. South Carolina, by all accounts has put up fights but that offense is a giant mess at this point. However, this is a rivalry game and the Gamecocks have given Georgia fits over the years. Not sure if this is going to be that year for them with the offensive issues. But you do have to applaud both schools for at least finding a way to play this game, unlike other teams in the SEC who try to take advantage of it (yes, I am taking a shot at Florida and LSU here). MY PREDICTION: GEORGIA 21, SOUTH CAROLINA 7
Enjoy the games!
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
