The Obstructed NCAA Preview: Week 4
We are pretty much near the start of the conference play of the college football season this year. Plenty of intrigue as always. But this year seems perhaps like it may be more of intrigue as possible upsets loom during Week 4 as some open up conference play (notably SEC, ACC, and Big 12) with some key marquee games. We can start separating the contenders from the pretenders beginning this week I believe. And who knows, it could be another topsy-turvy week.
Last week I went a horrible 8-7 with my picks. It's hard right now to really figure out certain teams on how good they really are or how rough they really are. It puts me up to 26-14. Hopefully I get back on track, but knowing my luck, I doubt it.
#23 UTAH @ ARIZONA, 10:30 (FRI), FS1: This is an intriguing one. Arizona seems like they are poised to get better with the run game. But the Wildcats haven't faced anybody of note and the one game they did, they only mustered 16 points against Houston. I would say homefield means something here but I don't know. Arizona seems to have their struggles at home. And Utah is also a good defensively sound squad. I don't know if the Wildcats can go against Utah's defense here. MY PREDICTION: UTAH 21, ARIZONA 17
NC STATE @ #12 FLORIDA STATE, 12:00, ABC: The Seminoles would love to get the nasty taste of their beginning of 2017 out of their mouths and fast. A loss to Alabama, the loss of Deondre Francois, and then 2 weeks without football. They return to Tallahassee to get an ACC rival that's given them fits over the years in NC State. The Seminoles have questions to answer after Francois's injury but will have to make sure to keep Finley at bay and not have him take over. The one thing that was forgotten in the Alabama game was Florida State did play an overall solid game against the Tide. If the Noles play that kind of defense and get at it and the problems at quarterback are solved, then things should be okay on Saturday. I think Jimbo will have his team ready, even if the Wolfpack feel an upset will happen. It will be close though. MY PREDICTION: FLORIDA STATE 24, NC STATE 17
TEXAS TECH @ HOUSTON, 12:00, ESPN2: It will be very interesting to see what Kliff Kingsbury does. The first half of last week's shoot-out with Arizona State was what we had expected, but then Kingsbury went "conservative" down the stretch and kept the ball and the scoring wasn't as high as what many believed (52-45 for the Sun Devils and Red Raiders is considered a defensive struggle). But it seems like Kingsbury is not as quick-strike as he has in the past. And that is good because it can really help his defense out. But facing Houston, who is becoming more of a defensively stout team, will present a challenge. Does he try to air it out like he so wants to do or will he try to beat the Cougars at their own game? My guess is that Houston is the home team will get the win as Texas Tech tries to be more of a physical team and come up short. MY PREDICTION: HOUSTON 31, TEXAS TECH 24
TEXAS A&M VS. ARKANSAS, 12:00, ESPN: The Aggies and Razorbacks meet again in North Texas for their annual game. So far, it is the one game the Aggies have fared greatly in. However, each time is when the Aggies got off to their typical hot start while Arkansas never had an answer. Texas A&M is under a lot of scrutiny now and everything Kevin Sumlin does will be tremendously zeroed in. He can say what he wants but I do think it has affected him. The good news is that Arkansas was embarrassed at home by TCU where they were just ugly and terrible. And now the seat is warming up strong on Bret Bielema. If he can't bring down the Aggies this year, he may not make it by the end. I think the game will be one where the Aggies and Razorbacks will keep it close by half and Texas A&M pulls away like they did agianst their week 2 and 3 opponents. MY PREDICTION: TEXAS A&M 31, ARKANSAS 17
#1 ALABAMA @ VANDERBILT: 3:30, CBS: Alabama has struggled so far, notably on defense. The Tide's defense has a lot of injuries in the linebacking section and the defensive line has generated no pressure on opposing quarterbacks since their week 1 win over Florida State. On the other hand, Vanderbilt had an impressive win over Kansas State, only allowing them to 7 points. Now, do the Tide have far more talent than the Commodores? Yes. Should the defense be better than Vanderbilt? Yes. However, this game isn't a game Alabama needs to get off to a slow start or it will be the Commodores dictating the tempo. And contrary to belief, I don't think Alabama is a program that just turns on a switch and then tears it up. I really don't. But I do think they get the job done this weekend, but too close to comfort for the Tide fans. MY PREDICTION: ALABAMA 20, VANDERBILT 10
#5 USC @ CALIFORNIA, 3:30, ABC: Well, USC going undefeated is no surprise, but Cal going undefeated to this point is. The Bears are playing a surprisingly balanced attack on both sides as they have looked very impressive to this point. USC? Not as much. Squeakers at home over Western Michigan and Texas has somewhat made people wonder while Sam Darnold has been great just not excellent to this point. This is a W that the Trojans need right now as they have scuffled a tad. And I think they get it as the defense is playing better and I think Darnold will turn it around and not turn it over. MY PREDICTION: USC 41, CALIFORNIA 27
#16 TCU @ #6 OKLAHOMA STATE: So far, the conference that has been impressive has been the Big 12. Yes, Oklahoma is the power there, but the teams of Oklahoma State and TCU have shown they are also legit. Well Oklahoma State has. TCU got a nice win 2 weeks ago against Arkansas in Arkansas. However, they did struggle a bit against SMU before pulling away in the 2nd half. I think Oklahoma State will try to jump on TCU fast in this game (and will) and it will frustrate the Frogs, but I do think Oklahoma State does have a question or two on the defensive side that will make some wonder and it may get TCU back in the game. MY PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA STATE 45, TCU 37
#8 MICHIGAN @ PURDUE, 4:00, FOX: Maybe more than Alabama, USC, or Oklahoma State, Michigan is the top 10 team right now that is on high alert for an upset. Purdue has been giving everybody nightmares on offense their defense surprisingly has been solid to this point. Michigan has a great defense, which isn't a surprise under Harbaugh but the offense has scuffled to start the year, whether to Florida, Cincinnati, or Air Force. If Michigan thinks Purdue will let them walk all over, it will be a long day for Michigan. This isn't the Darrell Hazell Boilermakers here. I'm not calling an upset here because I do think defense will win out and Purdue is probably a little bit away from being that team to take down a power team like Michigan but it will be a game Michigan will be glad to see end. MY PREDICTION: MICHIGAN 27, PURDUE 24
#17 MISSISSIPPI STATE @ #11 GEORGIA, 7:00, ESPN: No team had a more surprising win last week than Mississippi State as they DOMINATED LSU. Not won, DOMINATED. For Georgia that has to be a big concern. Had Mississippi State won it in a close battle, I would have never given it a 2nd thought on Georgia winning this week in Athens as Mississippi State may had a "well, we beat LSU so we're good!" bit. The one thing I think may be very interesting is Kirby Smart has never planned great against mobile quarterbacks when he was at Alabama and even last year he had difficulty with stopping a few. Fitzgerald is the real deal to me and that should cause great concern for Georgia. This may be a game where the score will surprise many, but I don't know if Mississippi State is ready to take down a SEC heavyweight on the road. MY PREDICTION: GEORGIA 38, MISSISSIPPI STATE 35.
SYRACUSE @ #25 LSU, 7:00, ESPN2: This game is also one that could be very intriguing. LSU got embarrassed at Starkville last week. And it may be more of the same with Orgeron as it was with Les Miles. Syracuse is a better team than what it has been for the last few years so this game may not be a gimme for the Tigers. Do I think this is an upset? No. But I do think it will be pretty close for a half, maybe even midway through the third quarter before LSU pulls away. MY PREDICTION: LSU 34, SYRACUSE 20
#4 PENN STATE @ IOWA, 7:30, ABC: Upset here? Doubtful, but Iowa plays the top dogs tough always. Yeah, they've scuffled with Iowa State and then North Texas, but when it comes to conference games, anything is possible with Iowa, especially at Kinnick Stadium. But Penn State likes to play physical and with speed as well so that really hurts the Hawkeyes on what they want to do. And I think it will decide the game. MY PREDICTION: PENN STATE 31, IOWA 17
#20 FLORIDA @ KENTUCKY, 7:30, SEC: I know this won't be much of analysis on this one but even if the Gators do not have Callaway or Scarlett I will always pick them against Kentucky until the Wildcats can show they can win against their Sunshine State foes. It will be close, but I think that demon of 30 years of not winning will haunt Kentucky here. MY PREDICTION: FLORIDA 17, KENTUCKY 13
NOTRE DAME @ MICHIGAN STATE, 8:00, FOX: Questions abound if both the Irish and Spartans are back into the mix of being nationally competitive squads. Hard to tell for both right now as Notre Dame has beaten two weak schools in Boston College and Temple while Michigan State has their share of MAC schools they brought down. Most people in Michigan State believe that last year as an aberration and that this is a new group that can really be a part of something grand in East Lansing. So far, Sparty has not allowed any touchdowns from their defense. Again MAC schools, but still a great feat given how they slipped with their defensive numbers in 2016. The question will be is can Notre Dame handle Michigan State's defense because they did not fare well against Georgia's defense a few weeks ago. This may be problematic and the ultimate factor for this game. MY PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE 21, NOTRE DAME 14
#7 WASHINGTON @ COLORADO, 10:00, FS1: The PAC-12 Championship rematch. Hard to really tell if either one has been better since last year. From the outside they look about the same as last year. It is hard to go against Washington however as the Buffaloes just do not have the same talent as the Huskies. They may play inspired football but I think Washington pulls away in the 2nd half. MY PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 37, COLORADO 20
That is it for this week. Enjoy the games!
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
