The Obstructed NFC Championship Preview: Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Two games left. Two games away from deciding who goes to the Super Bowl. In the NFC, the Packers, many still penned them given they are always a favorite in the NFC North and a favorite with Aaron Rodgers. The Falcons, many penned them to have another down year with a rebuilding defense and an offense that Matt Ryan hadn't grasped a hold of. Yet, the Falcons went 11-5 en route to their 3rd Division Championship in 7 years while they have their second NFC Championship appearance in 5 years and have a prolific offense. The defense, still shoddy at times, has improved over the season with rookie of the year candidates in a few areas such as Keanu Neal & Dion Jones as well as a Defensive Player of the Year hopeful in Vic Beasley. Green Bay, after struggles midway through, rolled past teams despite injuries to the offense and defense and at times, somehow magically winning these games. Of course, Aaron Rodgers had something to do with it. So who will pull it out Sunday?
GREEN BAY WINS IF:
Green Bay's quick start adding with Dallas's slow start really was the game.
William Glasheen-USA TODAY Sports
1. THEY STICK TO THE FORMULA THAT HAS WORKED THE LAST FEW WEEKS: Some of it was self-inflicted by the Giants, Detroit, and Dallas where there were key drops and missed opportunities. But it is more of Green Bay holding serve in the first half and let Rodgers take over in the second half. If they let Atlanta get a lead and a somewhat of a big one, Green Bay will be in a strange position and probably not a comfortable one.
Matthews and the defense will need to make a few more stops next Sunday.
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
2. MAKE A FEW KEY STOPS ON DEFENSE: Nobody has really stopped Atlanta's offense at all. There are just far too many weapons to handle. But in a game where it will be a shootout from all likelihoods, one or two stops in Atlanta's own territory may decide the game. Easier said than done with all the weapons the Falcons have.
Green Bay will need to get swings from turnovers.
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
3. GET TWO TURNOVERS: Atlanta doesn't turn the ball over much. But they lost a few games this year turning the ball over. If Green Bay can take two possessions away, it could be the game right there.
Even Green Bay struggled Sunday deep in their own territory.
William Glasheen-USA TODAY Sports
4. THEY WIN FIELD POSITION: Even when Rodgers has been on his game, burying him deep in his own territory hasn't panned out well for the Packers. Atlanta is also a team who loves burying teams deep. The entire game changed against Seattle with the safety and the Seahawks really didn't get it going on offense the rest of the way. Granted Seattle's offense is no Green Bay, but if you give Atlanta short field, they can dictate what they want to do.
Packers have to find a way of stopping Atlanta's offense early.
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
5. KEEP ATLANTA AT BAY IN THE FIRST HALF: Back to that formula bit I talked about. They cannot afford to give up 21 points in the first half, even if Green Bay scores some. Atlanta is in a rhythm and has pretty much picked apart every defense that has been thrown at them since the bye week back in November. They need to keep it low and possibly have a lead at halftime.
ATLANTA WINS IF:
Ryan and the Falcons have a knack of putting games away early.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
1. THEY SCORE EARLY AND OFTEN: As I mentioned, the Lions, Giants, and Cowboys have all blown major opportunities in the first halves of games this year. The Lions and Cowboys messed up where they couldn't get over that hump in the second half while the Giants flat-out quit. If a team jumped on Green Bay early, it may trigger a different mindset for the Packers, one where they are definitely not accustomed to. The Packers' backs may have been to the wall for the last part of the season, but in those games, they were never really in that mode. Atlanta has the offense to really do that to Green Bay. So if they can do it, it may put the Packers at a very unfamiliar and unwelcomed spot.
Getting to Rodgers even a few times might give Atlanta a big boost.
William Glasheen-USA TODAY Sports
2. GET TO RODGERS MORE THAN A FEW TIMES: Way easier said than done. Atlanta's pass rush is "okay," but they have to make sure they hit Rodgers more than a few times, even if it is after a pass, just to let him know they are there. And again, even against Dallas, he was frustrated when things weren't working for him. Atlanta will have to use blitzes I think in order to get Green Bay out of rhythm. Worked for Dallas.
Atlanta loves to lower the boom on teams, but Green Bay isn't one they need to do it with.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
3. TACKLE: Simple, but a rare thing. Atlanta's defensive issues resides to an extent of the youngsters trying to lower the boom on players. Yes, they can do that pretty well, but against a team that is physical and in open field, you got to wrap up. Atlanta had issues against Seattle that way and Dallas had issues with Green Bay. They have to TACKLE. If not, they won't stop anything.
Freeman is a key guy in the Falcons offensive tempo.
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
4. CONTROL THE TEMPO OF THE GAME: The one thing that Atlanta is so deadly on offense is they can score on a play or two, or they can score with a lengthy 7 minute drive like they had against Seattle. Now, the first reaction is make sure Rodgers sits on the sideline for the majority of the game, which is true. But also pick their spots of making big plays and giving Atlanta momentum. They have to find any way possible to disrupt Green Bay's tempo.
Rodgers finds ways to get easy 5 yards off of silly penalties by the defenses.
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
5. THEY KEEP THE PENALTIES AND TURNOVERS DOWN: Obviously in a game where it could be Shootout Central, any turnover on either side could be a huge swing. So it will be really about if the Falcons can keep the ball, avoid interceptions and fumbles while trying to find any way of getting a turnover themselves. IF they can get a turnover or two and make them pay, Atlanta will find themselves in Houston playing either the Steelers or Patriots. Also, Rodgers likes to get defenses on cheap 5-10 yard penalties. He did against Dallas on a few occasions. He has done that against Detroit too. Atlanta has to be VERY alert on this part.
MY PREDICTION: I predicted Green Bay to lose the last two weeks and failed miserably. On a side note, I am just flat-out tired of hearing about Aaron Rodgers being the golden boy of the NFL, especially after reading that he's somewhat of a jerk away from the football field (just my own pet peeve). But I cannot bash how he has played down the stretch. I know this sounds funny, but the game MIGHT be decided in the first half if Atlanta jumps to a big lead. And while the majority of the Falcons players are gone from the 2010 game where Rodgers tortured Atlanta, the new players are in a unique situation of playing the last game at the Georgia Dome while having to handle Rodgers and the Packers. Of course, there will be questions on who will be ready for the Packers if it is Nelson, Burnett, or any linemen who were dinged up in Dallas so it makes Atlanta's preparation a bit of an issue.
That said, I think Atlanta will put up points in the first half on Green Bay, but will get matched by it. The interesting thing is the Falcons and Packers love to hold the football right until half so that might be a key moment there. It may be that game where the last play decides. Hail Mary? My logic keeps saying Falcons will win this largely because they are balanced offensively and can run the ball well while Green Bay isn't in the best of shape with that and the defense of the Packers is horrid. But Green Bay doesn't quit and finds ways to win. So maybe because I want to reverse the jinx I am going with Green Bay and I have that ugly gut feeling. JINX/GUT FEELING PREDICTION: PACKERS 44, FALCONS 41; OBSTRUCTED LOGIC PREDICTION: FALCONS 45, PACKERS 41
So.............that's where I stand.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
