The Obstructed Preview for the NCAA Week 3
What a week of football last week. Probably the best of the early weeks, or as I call it the early non-conference weeks, took place last week with some great games. So what is the follow-up for one of the better weeks we've had in college football history?
Meh.
The big highlight game would have been Florida State/Miami but thanks to Hurricane Irma, it was postponed until October 7th.
The first week I went 9-2 and last week I went 9-5 had I didn't leave off TCU/Arkansas, which I did and the same goes for Utah/BYU, I would have gone 10-6 (had Arkansas & Utah winning). So I am 18-7 officially on my early season picks. I don't bet on games and do not really care for "spreads" as we are getting into the era where I think it is incredibly hard to take odds anyway.
So what holds up for Week 3 at hand? Here are the major games.
ILLINOIS @ #22 USF, 7:00, (FRI), ESPN: Regardless of the scenario so far, USF, probably the favorite of the "group of 5" to make a New Year's Bowl, has not impressed to this point. They got off to a VERY sluggish start at San Jose State to begin the year and then had massive difficulty beating Stony Brook 31-17. Illinois hasn't been a world-beater themselves nor have they been, but they have two wins and had a good defensive showing against Western Kentucky last weekend. This game may be very tough for the Bulls who were off last week thanks to the hurricane, so this may be a low scoring fight where Illinois could have a late lead. But I think USF BARELY pulls one out in Tampa. MY PREDICTION: USF 20, ILLINOIS 17
AIR FORCE @ #7 MICHIGAN, 12:00, BTN: While many believed Michigan would struggle, how Cincinnati stood toe to toe with them was a cause of some concern. Air Force is a different animal too with their option style offense. Cincinnati did an okay job of running against Michigan's defense, and if the Wolverines aren't disciplined enough, they will have massive issues all day and keep Air Force in the game. However, Michigan does play well agianst the pass so if they can build an early lead, things will look good for them. So the first quarter may dictate who controls the tempo. But Michigan needs a fast start. And they may get it. MY PREDICTION: MICHIGAN 31, AIR FORCE 17
#9 OKLAHOMA STATE @ PITTSBURGH, 12:00, ESPN: A revenge game from last year when the Cowboys beat Pitt in Stillwater. But I don't think the Panthers have the same ammunition like they had last year and it has shown with their offense. They are going to have problems putting up points and they don't have the horses to play shoot-out with the Cowboys this time around. Yes, the defense isn't horrid, but you saw the problems they had when the offense kept on having short series. They will get gassed and it may get ugly, even in Heinz Field. MY PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA STATE 38, PITTSBURGH 14
#25 UCLA @ MEMPHIS, 12:00, ABC: Maybe the 44-10 comeback is UCLA's spinach. A week later the Bruins dominated Hawaii 56-23. So the one thing certain is, points will be put up. But this is a game however that could be a bit of a trap for the Bruins. They have to come nearly cross-country and play a team that has a good offense and can put up a fight on others. And they have had an extra week to practice because of the hurricane (so in other words, another hurricane may actually hurt UCLA of all things-remember 98?). By common logic, the Bruins should win this game, but it may be more difficult than expected I believe. But they should escape Memphis with a W. MY PREDICTION: UCLA 41, MEMPHIS 31
NOTRE DAME @ BOSTON COLLEGE, 3:30, ESPN: Boston College showed their offense remains inept after the Eagles turned the ball over 4 times in an ugly loss to Wake Forest. The defense wasn't bad, but still allowed 300+ yards on a Wake offense that is not really known as a juggernaut. Notre Dame comes off a loss to Georgia where they were probably outplayed in every aspect but still nearly pulled it out. If the Irish hold on to the ball and can establish a running game, I believe they will win with relative ease. And they may. MY PREDICTION: NOTRE DAME 31, BOSTON COLLEGE 13
PURDUE @ MISSOURI, 3:30, SEC: Much was made of the Michigan/Florida game with Big Ten/SEC bragging rights, but this is interesting as this is really the bottom rung of the Big Ten against the bottom rung of the SEC. Purdue put up a strong showing against Louisville 2 weeks ago and then dominated Ohio while Missouri put up 70 against Missouri State (and allowing 43) while getting embarrassed at home to South Carolina. Mizzou made news this week by firing their defensive coordinator as the Tigers have been horrible the last couple of years on that side. But I don't know if the coordinator is the problem over there. What I felt like would be a win for Missouri I am no longer sure about given how Purdue has played to begin the year. This game will be a high scoring one, but I don't know if the Boilermakers are there yet of beating a team on the road, even if Missouri is not a power. MY PREDICTION: MISSOURI 42, PURDUE 37
#23 TENNESSEE @ #24 FLORIDA, 3:30, CBS: Hard to make this game out. Florida gets those players back from suspension but haven't faced anybody since their Michigan debacle. But the Vols are going to the little shop of horrors with Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, a place where they've been owned. I think the Volunteers won't have an easy time with Florida like they did with Georgia Tech on the offense. I think the Gators play a physical defense that Tennessee will buckle and I think with Jordan Scarlett back, the Gators will be fine running the ball on a weak Tennessee run game. The only question will be can the Gators not turn the ball over? I hope not because I don't want to see that stupid garbage can on the sideline from the Volunteers. MY PREDICTION: FLORIDA 24, TENNESSEE 17
COLORADO STATE @ #1 ALABAMA, 7:00, ESPN2: Surprised this is on here? No, I don't think an upset of epic proportions will happen here, and probably not going to be a close of a game. However, any Alabama fan who saw the Fresno State game was underwhelmed on how the Tide played, especially on defense. Numerous missed tackles, blown coverages, and they were not beating the line as much as expected. One argument was that the Tide were getting off that huge win against Florida State and a letdown was expected, but Saban & Co. don't want to hear it. This game may be a sign for things to come with Alabama this year if they repeat their Fresno performance or they repeat their Florida State performance on defense. Expect a hungrier defense Saturday. MY PREDICTION: ALABAMA 42, COLORADO STATE 6
#12 LSU @ MISSISSIPPI STATE, 7:00, ESPN2: One of the more fun rivalry games that gets unnoticed is this one. Mississippi State always plays LSU tough, home or road. And this year it seems like there is a push with the Bulldogs that they may be like those teams of 2014-15 with Dak Prescott. LSU looks pretty solid on both sides of the ball so this game may be a great game to watch and one that may be decided on the last play. However, I like LSU's line on both sides of the ball to really control the tempo and give Guice a big game. MY PREDICTION: LSU 31, MISSISSIPPI STATE 27
KENTUCKY @ SOUTH CAROLINA, 7:30 ESPN2: Both teams are 2-0 and doing it differently. Kentucky getting by closer than comfort I think with wins against Southern Miss and then FCS Eastern Kentucky. South Carolina I've actually been impressed with their play, beating a good NC State squad and then stalling Missouri's offense while their offense is clicking. This could be a sleeper team in the SEC East if nobody is going to pay attention. In this game, I think Carolina stops Kentucky's offense dead in their tracks and the offense will have another big day. Maybe we see more Jake Bentley throwing it in this game. MY PREDICTION: SOUTH CAROLINA 34, KENTUCKY 13
#18 KANSAS STATE @ VANDERBILT, 7:30, ESPNU: Granted, Vandy has not faced the toughest of competition (Middle Tennessee State & Alabama A&M), but have outscored their opponents 70-6 in the first two weeks. It is not really a normal thing in Nashville for them, but there is hope. Well, the next 4 games will be against top 25 teams (Kansas State, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia). And Kansas State has put up 55 points each of the first two weeks. So that phrase "something's gotta give" applies here. The Wildcats are a sleeper in the Big 12 and probably the only other team besides Oklahoma State to give the Sooners a run for their money. But the offense is clicking and the defense is fast and physical. I'd be surprised if the Commodores do too much on Kansas State's defense while at the same time hold their offense in check. It does not look like a good match-up for Vanderbilt here. MY PREDICTION: KANSAS STATE 38, VANDERBILT 20
#2 CLEMSON @ #14 LOUISVILLE, 8:00, ABC: This is obviously the game of the week with the Tigers and the Cardinals having a rematch of last year's classic where Clemson won late. It looks like Lamar Jackson is silencing his critics of he cannot pass as efficient as somebody like Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold, but so far he has shown he can this year. However, Clemson's defense is not Purdue's or North Carolina's. They gave Auburn nightmares with 11 sacks and stifled their receivers. I don't think Clemson will repeat their performances of week 1 or 2 but I think Jackson wont' have an easy time. The biggest question I have is can the Tigers offense generate anything agianst a far weaker Cardinals defense. For some reason I think they may have issues this week and Louisville will come up with some key stops. And Jackson will come up with some huge plays and exact a measure of revenge on Clemson from last year. MY PREDICTION: LOUISVILLE 30, CLEMSON 28
ARIZONA STATE @ TEXAS TECH, 8:00, FS1: As I said I am not a betting man, but if I was, bet the over here. A lot of points will be scored and it may resemble that of a basketball score when all is said & done. However, it seems to me Kliff Kingsbury seems more inclined to be more focused on defense as they held FCS Eastern Washington to 10 points and under 300 yards. Now while it is an FCS school, EWU has been a power for a while so this surprised me a bit. And they had a week off to look at the Sun Devils and their embarrassing home loss to San Diego State where the big play ruined them. Texas Tech may have a field day here. Never though I'd ever say that. MY PREDICTION: TEXAS TECH 63, ARIZONA STATE 38
TEXAS @ #4 USC, 8:30, FOX: The rematch of the 2005 National Championship. Of course far different players and far different coaches. Texas rebounded after the embarrassing defeat by Maryland to wallop lowly San Jose State. USC had a more impressive win after their near hiccup to Western Michigan and Sam Darnold looked more like the Heisman candidate we all expected. So is Texas finally in rhythm or was the San Jose State game more of a scrimmage? My guess is the latter as I can see Darnold pick apart the Longhorns relatively weak defense. If he can do it to Stanford, he can do it to Texas. And that will be the deciding factor. But I do think Texas's offense holds their own in this game. MY PREDICTION: USC 44, TEXAS 31
OLE MISS @ CAL, 10:30, ESPN: In a rare SEC/PAC-12 game (I know Texas A&M played UCLA), we see the Rebels, who have defeated two relatively weaker squads go against a Cal team that has raised eyebrows with a 2-0 start (though not as impressive against Weber State). If this game is built on talent, Ole Miss probably wins it, but it is a cross-country trip for the Rebels so that may have a factor in it. If California jumps off to a fast start on Ole Miss, that may be the game, but I think it will be close for most of the way and I think Ole Miss ekes out a win on the Bears, but Cal is better than I imagined. MY PREDICTION: OLE MISS 33, CAL 30.
That's it for this week.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
