Twins 2016 Preview
The Boys of Summer are dusting off their gloves and spikes preparing for the 2016 season. Where does the 2016 season go? There's room for optimism, but plenty of unanswered needs and players that have to prove themselves. Let's break down positions and see where it leads.
STARTING PITCHING
Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson are locks for, and lead the rotation. While none of them have shown ace potential, all have been very capable in the past. They also have been prone to the long ball , which makes them scary at times. If these 3 can combine for 40-45 wins that will keep the Twins competitive. Tyler Duffey has to prove that his 2015 success was legit and build upon it. Tommy Milone has an early edge as the 5th starter, always around .500 he fits the 5th starter role well. The frustrating and often injured Ricky Nolasco will battle for a rotation spot with Duffey and Milone and looks to slip into the rotation should one of them falter or become injured. If he, Milone and Duffey can get 20 wins they've done their jobs this year.
Jose Berrios is a rising star, he may get an early or midseason call up if he gets off to a good start in the minors. Trevor May proved himself successful in the bullpen in 2015, a switch to a starter could be a possibility if injuries mount up.
BULLPEN
Closer Glen Perkins has broken down in the 2nd half of the season the past 2 years. A healthy Perkins is very effective and will need to prove that early to hang on to the role. Kevin Jepsen will be a top set up man and offers insurance should Perkins prove ineffective. Trevor May and Casey Fien look to be key roles in holding games in the late to middle innings. Left handed pitchers Fernando Abad, Aaron Thompson and Ryan O'Rourke will compete for the specialists spot against lefties. Ricky Nolasco will be the long relief man if he doesn't get a starting spot. Ryan Pressly, J.R. Graham and Logan Darnell will compete for the other long relief roles. Alex Meyer throws absolute upper 90's gas, if he can find command he could be a dark horse surprise.
If this bullpen can stay healthy, they should prove to be very effective.
OUTFIELD
This is a an area of mystery as we head to 2016. Eddie Rosario was a pleasant surprise of speed, power and defense in 2015. If he can continue the trend, left field is his to lock down. If a sophomore slump hits, that will hurt. Byron Buxton has the defense in center field, being one of the fastest players in MLB, but needs to make more consistent contact and stay injury free. He needs to add more mass to his frame and refine his fundamentals but his unlimited upside make him exciting to watch. Miguel Sano takes all 260 pounds of him to right field, defensively this could be a liability. If he slugs 25-35 home runs it's a liability worth having.
For the 4th outfielder Oswaldo Arcia has to show more of a consistent stroke in spring, he has upside but must put up numbers as he's running out of options. Journeyman Darin Mastroianni is back to provide depth, he has speed and defense but has proven light hitting against major league pitching. If ex-MLB all-star Carlos Quentin can prove he's healthy and still has some skills left he could also help add depth in case of injury. Danny Santana has played OF before and is an effective utility man. Max Kepler could be a call up if he shows improvement in the minors.
I am nervous on the Twins outfield right now.
INFIELD/DH
This is an area of somewhat stability. 1B/DH Joe Mauer is back at 1B, this is an important year for Mauer to up his production as he has 2 more big contract years of $23M remaining. If he can't put up more numbers, the Twins might and his career may start to wind down a bit. I do think Mauer is due for a big year. Korean newcomer Byung-Ho Park and minor league slugger Kennys Vargas offer competition at 1B/DH and have shown power overseas and in the minors. Vargas or Park will go in as the DH whoever makes the club out of spring training, the latter will have to go to AA or AAA.
BrIan Dozier is back at second base, his 1st half was exceptional last season and his 2nd half was a huge disappointment. He has to prove his 1st half is more of the trend. His speed and defense make him very safe for now. The Twins need his power. Eduardo Escobar wrestled away shortstop from Danny Santana, if he stays consistent and shows the power he did in 2015 it's his job to keep. Trevor Plouffe is in a key career year, if he can put up same or similar numbers he will see another big $$ contract. If he runs cold, which he does from time to time, he may not be a Twin by the end of the season. Eduardo Nunez and Danny Santana are solid back ups who can play all positions in the infield and move to the OF if need be with each having decent speed.
CATCHER
Veteran Kurt Suzuki will go in as the incumbent starter and look to get closer to his 2014 numbers. He's a good clubhouse guy but a career .255 hitter with a so-so arm, makes Suzuki a safe but limited player behind the dish. Offseason trade pick up John Ryan Murphy is the primary back up and could see that role increase if he can take a step forward in his MLB development. He showed promise in limited but increasing roles with the Yankees the past 3 seasons, hopefully ready to possibly become the catcher of the future.
IN SUMMARY
Strengths- Bullpen, infield stability, overall team speed
Weaknesses- No #1 starter, an unproven outfield, consistent power, hitters strike out alot
KEYS TO SUCCESS
- Mauer must be more productive with his offense
- Dozier, Plouffe, Park/Vargas can hit for power all season
- Perkins can stay healthy and consistent all year
- The starting rotation stays solid and has an E.R.A under 4.00
- Buxton steps up his offense
- Rosario and Sano show they belong
My High End Prediction: 88-74 and win the central
My Low End Prediction: 72-90 injuries, depth and sophomore slumps doom the season
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