Best Bets for NCAA Football Week 7 and NFL Week 6
So we were down 1 stinking unit last week...BIG DEAL! This is a new week. A fresh start.....let's pick some winners!!!!!
All lines are current as of 8:00 AM MST from Scores and Odds . All bet are 1 unit ($110 to win 100) unless noted.
NCAA FOOTBALL
Alabama - 12 @ Tennessee (2 Unit Game!!)
Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports
You would have thought that I would have learned my lesson after laying 17 points with Houston and taking it on the chin. This line opened at 9 hit 13.5 and is now at 12. If not for a major comeback by Tennessee last week and getting the game to OT vs. Texas A&M, they were looking a 21 point loss in the face and this is a 17 to 19 point line. The stats of this game is this...Tennessee allows 91% scoring in the redzone and Alabama only allows 31.3% of 3rd down conversions. The other aspect to look at is can Tennessee's front block Alabama's front 7. What does that spell....Alabama might hit the mid-40's while Tennessee might not hit 20. Pretty easy one in my eyes. Tennessee is notorious for starting out slow and if they do that in this game.....well.....ask USC what happens. Bet 2 units on this one. BAMA in a ROUT... Alabama 45 Tennessee 17
Duke +35.5 @ Louisville (FRIDAY GAME!!)
Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports
So I can get Duke on 6 possessions if you count the hook against a Louisville defense that frankly is not a world beating defense? Sold! Look David Cutcliffe is a great offensive minded coach (see Peyton Manning) and Duke, while only 3-3 this year, has established a solid program. This line is a little over-hype on Louisville taking out frustration on Duke from the Clemson game and Vegas not thinking too much of Duke football...which I get that part. Don't forget, Duke went to South Bend and beat Notre Dame 38-35 as a 19.5 point dog. Louisville is 3-1-1 ATS this year, Duke is 3-3...it is a wash. Take the points and watch Louisville (the most hyped up team in years) win...but by something like 25. Duke covers, but Louisville wins 49-24.
Colorado State +28.5 @ Boise State
Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Another line that is too much hype on one team. Make no mistake, Boise State is good. They have about an 87% chance to run the table, be 12-0 and throw a conversation their way come playoff time. But while they are good, they are not the world beating team that this line shows. That and Colorado State has enough athletes to play this one decent. This line has dropped from 31.5 to 28.5 on Friday morning. That is a lot of movement to CSU. Neither team is great on 3rd down defense and neither is great on offense converting on 3rd down. Also, Boise allows 8.1 yards per pass which is right in the wheel house of the Rams. I will take the 31.5. Boise wins but CSU covers. Boise 38 Colorado State 21.
NFL
New England -9 vs. Cincinnati
Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
Do not over think this one. Yes Cincinnati has a good team and yes they can beat anyone on any Sunday.....except this Sunday. Did you not see what Tom Brady did last week? Just over 400 yards passing and looked like he had played the four previous weeks. This week he will be going against a team that got torched by Tony Romo...........wait.......I mean Dak Prescott. New England defensively is a bit underrated in my opinion and this one could get out of hand early. I will lay the 9 and go with New England 35 Cincinnati 20.
Detroit -3 -120 vs. Los Angeles
Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
To start the year, Los Angeles has been a great story. My wife and I were in LA last week and I will be the first to tell you that LA people are great. They were pleasant to talk to, did not mind if you asked them a question, and they showed manners. But as nice as they were, Buffalo exposed the 3-1 start they had. Todd Gurley is only getting 2.7 yards per carry and Case Keenum is still your QB. Not good. The Lions fought for a big win vs. Philly last weekend (thank you Ryan Matthews) and have enough speed to chew up the Rams on offense. I see Detroit getting up in this one 14-0 or so, then Keenum having to start making a play. No way...sorry for the rhyme there. I will lay the three points for a Detroit victory. Detroit 27 LA 16.
Oakland/Kansas City OVER 46.5
To say both these teams are bad against the pass is an understatement. Oakland is dead last vs. the pass and while Kansas City is 8th, they had the week off last week, so no 5th game. If you put a 250 yard game on KC in a mythical 5th game from last weekend, KC is sitting 17th. This also is a huge game for both. An Oakland win and they start to gain a foot hold on the division. KC needs this one and suddenly you could have a 3 way tie in the West. Andy Reid has shown in the past, the bigger the game, the more he opens the play book. The game is in Oakland, but I like Kansas City to win. That is not the bet. Take the OVER as this should go Kansas City 34 Oakland 28.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!!!!
