Barry vs Emmitt: who's the Greatest of All Time; GOAT??? (and the stats to prove it)

The debate continues...and Ends!!!...

"he shd know i think he's the best of all time" - Emmitt Smith on Barry Sanders (HOFer, 3x Superbowl Champion, 4x All Pro, 1x MVP, & #1 on the All Time Career Rushing list)

You've heard the debate and all the arguments on both side; Barry was electric, Emmitt was a workhorse, Barry did it better, Emmitt did it longer, Barry was selfish, Emmitt was a product of an all-time O-Line. Here are some statistics to help guide the debate.  Now if you are into the longevity thing, than debate over. But it can't just be about longevity. Yes it is impressive Emmitt played for 15 years (when the average career of an NFL running back is 2.5 years), but the last 5 years of Emmitt's career were average. The 1st 10 years were great. Barry played only 10 years and those years were great. Now...Which were greater?

A brief college comparison is included here for background only!!!  A nice introduction to the microcosm of this great debate.   Barry Sanders was a back up running back to future Hall Of Famer and 4 year Collegiate starter Thurman Thomas at Oklahoma State and only started 1 year (the greatest RB season off all time in college football).  However even as primarily a kick returner and back up, rival Oklahoma coach Barry Switzer (who then coached Emmitt in the NFL) saw something special...

"Whatever you do, don't hurt Thurman.  You don't want to play against this freshman back they have named Barry Sanders."  - Barry Switzer (Oklahoma Coach 3x National Champion & Dallas Cowboy Coach 1x SuperBowl Champion)

Looking at career college stats, Emmitt had a more accomplished "career" (a 3 year starter at Florida).  But Barry was greater (arguably the greatest college football season of all time - 1988 Oklahoma State).  This does not affect my analysis of their NFL Careers, but it is a microcosm to what defines these 2 legends (the college example is more extreme, but it proves the same type of point).

Both were All American's in their final season in collage.  But this is what Barry did in his final year (38 records + Heisman Trophy + still being considered the greatest college football season 30 years later)...


1.  Awards 
2.  Stats - Rush Attempts / Yards / Yards Per Carry 
3.  Stats - # of 50, 100, 200 yard games / # of 4, 5, 6, 7 ypc games (bonus section -> TDs)
4.  Teammates
5.  Competition
6.  Playoffs / Superbowls (added due to popular demand by comments and readers)
7.  Other

1. Awards

Let's get the NFL awards out of the way.  Both won Offensive ROY.  Both won 1 MVP award.  Barry was a probowler 100% of the 10 years he played and was an all pro 1st team 60% of the 10 years.  Emmitt was a probowler 53% of his 15 years and an all pro 1st team only 27% of his career.  But is that fair?  Emmitt's last couple years weren't as productive?  Well why is it fair to add those semi productive years to defend his greatness but take them away when it diminishes it?  But even if we take it away, and only take Emmitt's 1st 10 years (equivalent to Barry's career), Emmitt was a probowler 80% (compared to 100% of Barry's 10 year career) and an All Pro 40% (compared to 60% of Barry's 10 year career).

“Barry Sanders is my new idol, I love the way the guy runs. When I grow up, I want to be just like him.” - Bo Jackson (only athlete to be an All Star in both NFL and MLB)
2. Stats - Rush Attempts / Yards / Yards Per Carry

Emmitt had more opportunities, but Barry did more with those opportunities.

"He didn't take a big hit. Guys were off-balance playing against him. Barry's was in a Michael Jordan-like zone. He was electrifying." - Thurman Thomas (HOFer, 2x All Pro, & 5x Probowler)

When comparing and ranking just the 2 players among themselves, Barry comes out on top.  Barry had less opportunities (years and carries), but produced more.  Barry averaged for the season 6+ yards/carry 1x, and 5+ yards/carry 4 other times in his career. Emmitt averaged 5+ yards/carry only 1x in his career behind a better offensive line, a better offense, and better team in general (scroll down to see that analysis).  The below chart shows Barry's and Emmitt's combined 25 years in the NFL, ranked from best to worst for each category.

When stacking their stats by year, you see Barry's career is top heavy.  Even his greatest season is a bit underrated.  In 1997 ( a year before he retired), Barry ran for an NFL record 14 consecutive 100 yard games (the next best is Marcus Allen with 11).  He started the season slow, but take away the 1st 2 games of that season and he still ran for 2000 yards.  in 14 games.  2000 yards in 14 games.   Emmitt's longest 100 yard game streak?  4.  

"Jim Brown would be different today, but Sanders would be the best back in the NFL in any era, regardless of what the players looked like." - Curtis Martin (HOFer, & #4 on the All Time NFL Career Rushing list)
3. Stats - # of 50, 100, 200 yard games / # of 4, 5, 6, 7 ypc games

Next.  "Barry was unpredictable and many times ran for losses.  Emmitt was a workhorse."  When looking at every game they played, Barry only ran for less than 50 yards in consecutive games 4x (and never more than 2 consecutive games), and Barry ran for 100 yards + in consecutive games 15x (with the longest being a 14 game streak).  Emmitt just cannot compete.  Even when you just look at Emmitt's 1st 153 games (equivalent to Barry's career), he had more consecutive sub 50 yard games and also had 100+ in consecutive games 15x (but his longest streak was 4 games).  

What about 100 yard games, 150 yard games, 200 yards games, 5 yard/carry games, 6 yard/carry games, 7 yard/carry games, etc.?  Emmitt played in 73 more games and has only 3 more 100 yard games and only 11 more times ran for more than 4 ypc.  In 73 more games, Emmitt had less 150 yard and 200 yard games.  Again Barry did it better, more often, and more consistently than Emmitt.  Barry ran for at least 50 yards in 84% of his games.  Emmitt in his 1st 153 games (equivalent to Barry's career) did it 83% of his games.  Barry ran for 100 yards in 50% of his games played.  Emmitt in 153 game equivalent ran in 41% of his games.

Recently a user sent a comment regarding some stats he felt I was missing.  Touchdowns.  175 (Smith) to 109 (Sanders).  That is a huge discrepancy.   Why would I not focus on Touchdowns?  Is it because it solidify's the argument for Emmitt?  Actually, 2 points...

1.  I believe TDs are like wins and playoff success.  They are a product of opportunity.  Opportunity driven by team success.  If your team has a HOF QB, a HOF WR, a All Pro TE, a HOF RB (Emmitt), and a HOF Offensive Line, would your opportunities for goal line carries or touchdowns be more or less than a team with a HOF RB and Scott Mitchell (no offense to Mitchell)??? 

2.  Further, 175 to 109 speaks to the Career stats fallacy.  If you take it on a per touch basis, or on a per game basis, their stats are much more similar even though Smith had an inarguable much better team.   Barry only played 10 years to score those 109 tds (at a rate of 0.71 TD's per game or a TD per 31.3 touches). Emmitt played 15 years to score the 175 tds (at a rate of 0.77 TD's per game or a TD per 28.4 touches).  0.71 per game vs 0.77 per game.  That's what we are talking about.

Touchdown stats

In 5 less years of work, with less opportunities, Barry Sanders has 2.5x more touchdowns of 50+ yards (15 vs 6).   Barry Sanders has 1.4x more touchdowns from between 20 and 50 yards (18 vs 13).   Those long touchdowns are proof of his talents, while the 1-5 yard touchdowns are a product of will, talent, and TEAMWORK.  To say Emmitt always got the goal line caries while Sanders went to the bench is misleading.  72x someone other then Emmitt scored a TD from 1-5 yards (and that doesn't account all the times Emmitt got the ball but couldn't score).  Now again, I can not state this enough, if you are a defense planning against the Cowboys on 1st and Goal from the 2, what do you do?  Stack the box and you have Michael Irvin on one on one?  Novacek off the line?  One of the most accurate QB's in the NFL?   Now think about a team game planning against Barry Sanders and the Detroit Lions at the 2 yard line?

Another example of how "touchdowns" can be misleading.  In 2015, the NFL leaders in Touchdowns were Devonte Freeman, Jeremy Hill, Adrian Peterson, Deangelo Williams with 11, followed by Todd Gurley and Cam Newton with 10. Yes Cam Newton was tied for 5th most TDs last year.  A perfect example of opportunity.  Here are the YPG rushing leaders 2015; Adrian Peterson, Lavion Bell, Doug Martin, Todd Gurley, and Jonathan Stewart. Which list best represents the talent level at the RB position.   Again the point isn't that Emmitt isn't good, or even an all time great.  The only point is that Barry was better.

4. Teammates

Barry played with a total of 29 probowlers broken down as follows; 9 O-line, 4 Offensive, 10 Defensive, and 6 Special Teams.  Emmitt played with a total of 64 probowlers (all but 5 were in his 1st 10 seasons) broken down as follows; 24 O-line (2x had a year with 4 probowl offensive linemen, and 2x had a year with 3 probowl offensive lineman), 18 Offensive, and 22 Defensive.  One of the years that Emmitt had 4 probowl linemen, he himself was not even a probowl.

We already saw that Barry did more with less opportunity.  He also did more with less help.  He had less than half the probowl offensive linemen as Emmitt, yet averaged more YPC.  He had 1/3rd the amount of offensive position probowlers than Emmitt so other teams could stack the box more on Barry.  He had 1/3 the amount of Defensive probowlers.  

Here is the same graphic using All Pro as the criteria.  Barry made 1st or 2nd team AP All Pro every year of his career even with only 4 All Pro Linemen vs Emmit's 13 in his career.  Emmitt was 1st or 2nd team AP All Pro only 5x in his career.

The below says it all...

"If they get you a fullback and a tightend, you will be unstoppable." - Lawrence Taylor (HOFer, 2x Superbowl Champion, 3x DPOY, 1x MVP) after Barry's 2nd career game
5. Competition
“There was one guy since I’ve been playing that I was afraid of because he could beat us at any moment. That was Barry”. - Reggie White (HOFer, 1x Superbowl Champion, 2x NFL Def POY, & 8x All Pro)

Who ran against better defenses?  Not a perfect statistical analysis, but taking each year's defensive rushing yards team ranks, in their 1st ten years (to make it apples to apples to Barry's career), Barry played 60 games against top 10 ranked defenses, while Emmitt played 49 games against top 10 defenses.  Defenses ranked worse than top 20 in their 1st 10 years?  Barry 43x vs Emmitt 62x.


DISCLAIMER:  EMMITT IS GREAT!!!!  A top 10 RB of all time.  But like the "Kobe is better than Jordan" debates...they just have to stop.  Barry is 1A or 1B with Jim Brown.  Period!!!.  


6.  Playoffs / Superbowls

Originally I did not have a Playoff/Superbowl analysis, because in the NFL wins and losses are a team effort more than any other sport.  1 man, even the greatest RB of all time can not do it on his own...

Please see my post Championships do NOT matter; Unless you are a Quarterback or NBA Superstar.  Emmitt has 3 superbowl rings and 17 playoff games.  Barry has zero rings and has only 6 playoff games played.  That is true and that is true.  We are now focusing on team success to judge the merits of a single player.  Football more than any other sport is a team game.   

Who has the most Superbowl Rings? Charles Haley with 5. Charles Haley was a great linebacker. 5 Probowls and 2 All Pro selections. Would anyone argue that he is a better Linebacker than Lawrence Taylor (2 rings), Mike Singletary (1 ring), Ray Lewis (2 rings), Dick Butkus (0 rings), Derrick Thomas (0 rings), Junior Seau (0 rings)...etc etc etc. Nobody would argue that Haley is better than those guys. Why is the standard for ranking Emmitt over Barry different than ranking Haley over Taylor?  By the Superbowl rings argument one would say that Franco Harris (4 Rings) was better than Walter Payton (1 Ring). Roger Craig (2 rings) better than Eric Dickerson (0 rings)? This ridiculous ring comparison can go on forever and get you nowhere.  

If you look at playoff performances, the Great Walter Payton averaged 3.5 YPC and his teams won 4 of 9 games played (1 SB win).  The Great Ladanian Tomlinson averaged 3.6 YPC and his teams won 4 of 10 games played (no SB appearances).  Adrian Peterson averaged 3.6 YPC and his teams won 1 of 5 (no SB appearances).  The Great OJ Simpson only played in 1 playoff game and averaged 3.3 YPC (no SB appearances).  What do these all time great RB's have in common.  Look up their quarterbacks and look up their defensive team stats!!!  When a playoff team prepared for the Detroit Lions they had exactly 1 concern...BARRY SANDERS (and his Career 4.3 playoff YPC compared to Emmitt Smith's 4.5 YPC).  When a team focused on the Cowboys, they had a lot to worry about.  Regular season is less impacted because teams have less time to game plan and less film to study.  Regular season includes the entire spectrum of defensive teams, while in the playoffs, usually the defenses are in the top tier.  

What did their teams look like?  We already mentioned probowlers and quarterback discrepancy.  What about team defense and team offense?  The Dallas Cowboys (with Emmitt Smith) won 3 Superbowls.  In those years their team offense (points scored) and team defense (points allowed) were both ranked in the top 5.  Barry Sanders never had both offense and defense in top 5.  In fact, staying true to the argument that Defense wins championships, in the 9 years that their careers overlapped (between 1990 and 1998), Barry Sander's Lions made the playoffs 5x in those 9 years, and it is no coincidence it happened in the 5 best defensive years 1991 ranked 11th, 1993 ranked 15th, 1994 ranked 19th, 1995 ranked 14th, and 1997 ranked 10th.  Barry Sander's Lions best defensive ranking was 10th.  In those years Emmitt Smith's Cowboys had 6 season in top 5 defensive rankings.  Teams Matter, Coaches Matter, Organizations Matter.  This is the problem attaching team success to their individual greatness.  Emmitt Smith had opportunity to add to his legend by great teams doing great things.

One reader commented that Barry would trade for Emmitt's career.  And that if you had 1 game to win you would take Emmitt Smith.  Well the 1st comment is true.  I would bet Barry Sanders would agree too.  Players play for rings.  For Championships.  Just because Barry would trade for Emmitt's Career does not mean that Emmitt is better.  I bet Dan Marino would take Eli's career if he could, and that does not mean Eli is better.  The second comment is partially true, yet I would change that to..."if you had to Win 1 game I would pick Cowboys (Aikman, Emmitt, Irvin, Daryl Johnston, Jay Novachek, Leon Lett, Darren Woodson, Nate Newton, Mark Tuinei, Mark Stepnoski, Charles Haley and the 11 Cowboy probowlers in 1994) over the Detroit Lions in 1995 Detroit had 5 probowlers (Sanders, Moore, Brown, Spielman, and Grey)."

One user said Barry choked in Playoffs while Emmitt always showed up.  That's a big accusation to make based on Barry Sanders having 1 playoff game with Negative yards.  What about Barry Sanders best playoff game 169 yards which is better than any of Emmitts 17 playoff games.  What about this.  Emmitt and his greatness played in 3 Superbowls.  Only has 1 Superbowl MVP.  If he is always so clutch and at his best in Superbowls, why only 1 Superbowl MVP (The other 2 were Troy Aikman and a Cornerback.  yes he lost out to a Cornerback).  In his last Superbowl he had 49 yards rushing at 2.7 YPC.  But his team still won.  And that's my point.  Its a team game.  And lets not forget the 1x they played heads up in the Playoffs...Barry Sander's Lions beat Emmitt Smiths Cowboys in 1991 38-6.  

7. Other

Some other comments that users made that I wanted to address.  Emmitt was a workhorse.  Only missed 7 games in his years in Dallas (13 years).  Barry only missed 7 games in 10 years.  Thats 0.5 gms missed / season for Emmitt, and 0.7 gms missed / season for Barry.  Not exactly a big difference.  In Fact.  Barry played all 16 games 7 of 10 years he played = 70%.  In Emmitts 13 years in Dallas he played all 16 games 8x = 61%.  Also a little FUN FACT.  Barry Sanders had 2 seasons with ZERO FUMBLES.  Emmitt has ZERO seasons with ZERO FUMBLES.