The Phil Jackson Effect: GOAT COACH or GOAT TIMING
Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images
By: Tamir Barkan
The Phil Jackson Effect: GOAT Coach or GOAT Timing
Many people consider Phil the greatest coach of all time in the NBA and maybe all of sports. There are others in the conversation, but he is definitely listed on the Mount Rushmore.
Unfortunately there is a "chicken and the egg" discussion here. Is he great because of Jordan/Pippen and Shaq/Kobe? or is the fact they never won without him proof the he is the "great" that put them over the top?
Below are graphs that show how the Bulls and Lakers performed before Phil arrived (BP) and after Phil Left (AP). This shows that a Phil change gives a team 17.3 games more than before or after Phil. Wow!!...or Wow?
In 1999, When Phil left the Chicago Bulls, the Bulls were 41 games worse than 1998 (with Phil).
But WAIT!!!!.
What else happened in 1999? Michael Jordan retired (2nd time), Pippen joined the Rockets, and Rodman joined the Lakers, and who replaced this Big 3? Elton Brand. So was Phil worth 41 wins (or less wins?)
In 2006, When Phil left the Lakers, the Lakers were 22 games worse than in 2006 (with Phil).
What else happened in 2005? Shaq was replaced by Lamar and Butler. So was Phil worth 22 wins (or less wins?)
So how can we calculate Phil's worth?
We can attempt to calculate Jordan, Pippen, Rodman, Shaq, Kobe, and Pau's worth, and give the remaining to Phil.
Basically we have to isolate each player/coach without other noise involved. For example, in Jordan's 2nd year he was injured for 64 games. We know the 18 games Jordan played the Bulls were 9 of 18 which equals 50% and can equate to 41 games when its applied to 82 games. Without Jordan that year the Bulls were 21 of 64 which equals 32.8% or about 27 wins in 82 games. So Jordan's impact for this year was 41-27= +14, and no other Phil/Pippen etc noise affects that
Lets start with Jordan -
There were 4 major times in Jordan's career where him joining or leaving the Bulls was the only major change to the team, and therefore we can more accurately calculate the "Jordan Effect". Other times he retired or left was along with other changes like Pippen and Phil leaving so those are excluded.
There were 4 major times in Pippen's career where him joining or leaving was the only major change to the team. The "Pippen Effect" is below -
There were 4 major times in Rodman's career where him joining or leaving was the only major change to the team. The "Rodman Effect" is below -
There were 4 major times in Shaq's career where him joining or leaving was the only major change to the team. The "Shaq Effect" is below -
So how does this affect the "Phil Effect". There were 4 major times in Phil's career where him joining or leaving was the only major change to the team. The "Phil Effect" is below -
So what would Phil's win curve look like without the other player effects?
Still impressive. But; GOAT???
Whats more telling, that he won 11 rings with a combination of Jordan/Pippen/Grant, Jordan/Pippen/Rodman, Shaq/Kobe, and Kobe/Pau, or that he lost 2 finals with Shaq/Kobe/Malone/Payton, and Kobe/Pau?
Other faulty arguments -
Jordan and Pippen were there before Phil and didn't win. That is a true statement but it is misleading. Look at the graph below that shows Jordan's 6 years before Phil and how he the trend line assumes Jordan was on pace to win without Phil too. And when Phil got there Scottie was in his 3rd year and still developing. When people say Jordan and Scottie were there before Phil, that is true but though Jordan was already a superstar, Pippen was still developing.
The same argument can be made with Shaq and Kobe. Kobe was 21 and still emerging as an All NBA talent. Saying Kobe/Shaq were there before Phil and couldn't win is misleading, because it assumes they were both in their prime and couldn't win without Phil.
