What If? An analysis of what might have been: Jordan, Magic, Bird, Walton, Hill, McGrady, Hardaway
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By: Tamir Barkan
WHAT IF? Stats Adjusted for Injuries &/or Untimely Retirements
There are so many "what if's" in sports that leaves us wondering what could have been. What if Magic didn't contract HIV at a time when it was thought to be a death sentence? What if Bird didn't hurt his back, or Jordan didn't retire? What if Grant Hill and Penny Hardaway never got hurt? Glimpses of greatness and legendary careers that weren't. Jordan is widely considered the greatest of all time anyway, but what if? what if it could not even be debated?
I have put together what if scenarios for the following NBA players -
Jordan (what if he didn't get hurt year 2, retire 2x, and gracefully retired at the right time and didn't come back to the Wizards?)
Magic (what if he didn't contract HIV, or at least was able to continue playing with it?)
Bird (what if he didn't injure his back with at least 3-5 great years left?)
Bill Walton (what if he didn't get injured after only 4 years in the NBA?)
Tracy McGrady, Grant Hill, and Penny Hardaway (what if injuries didn't derail their path to all timeness?)
Methodology -
I used the average of the 10-12 best players from the 80's, 90's, and 2000's to get an idea of what the career arc was for great players, and applied it to the years missed in these superstars' careers. Why different decades? Because the career arc of Jordan would have been much closer to Olajuwan and Barkley, while Hardaway's arc would have been much closer to Kobe's. Different decades had different circumstances (travel, medicine, league rules, etc).
JORDAN -
For Jordan I replaced his 18 games in year 2 and 17 games in 1st comeback year with a career arc replacement, and then assumed he would have continued to play several years after the 2nd repeat.
There is some objectivity here and its not an exact science. For the stats, I used the average career arc of other great players in that era, but for awards I used some judgement. Jordan won 3 championships, retired, then won 3 more when he returned, so is it a stretch to think he was capable of winning the 2 years in between (during his baseball hiatus)? and after his 2nd 3peat, is it hard to believe that they could have won one during the strike shortened season that followed? Same thought went into All NBA and All Def, etc.
MAGIC -
For Magic I replaced his year 2 injury plagued year with a full year as well as his 4 missed years due to HIV and the 1 year comeback.
BIRD -
I replaced his Injury season and the handful that followed as he was never the same after that back injury.
WALTON -
Should have been an all time great. By his 4th year he had won an MVP and Finals MVP, but not 1 time in his 1st 10 years did he play more than 65 games and essentially missed 4 complete seasons. If anyone deserves this Adjusted Career arc its Bill Walton. Top 2-3 college player of all time, a great team mate, wonderful disciple of the great John Wooden, and the king of "what might have been" (and the start of the Portland Big Man Curse: Walton, Bowie, Oden)
The next 3 were all great, but will miss out on All Timer mentions due to injuries in the prime of their careers that derailed their career arc: Tmac, Grant Hill, and Penny Hardaway. 3 players that were before their time. Tall, agile, multi-talented, change the game type players that lost their careers way too soon.
