Bowl Week #3 Predictions

By Joey Broback

• A State of Gameday

Jan. 01, 2016

OVERVIEW

January 1, 2016

Joe Broback

GAMES OF THE WEEK

*all rankings are based on Playoff Committee rankings

Overall Record: 36-24 Bowl Record: 17-14

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS

My pick: UCLA 34 Nebraska 27 ACTUAL: Nebraska 37 UCLA 29

My pick: Virginia Tech 23 Tulsa 19 ACTUAL: Virginia Tech 55 Tulsa 52

My pick: Indiana 33 Duke 30 ACTUAL: Duke 44 Indiana 41

My pick: Washington 30 Southern Miss 27 ACTUAL: Washington 44 Southern Miss 31

My pick: Washington State 42 Miami 30 ACTUAL: Washington State 20 Miami 14

My pick: UConn 21 Marshall 20 ACTUAL: Marshall 16 UConn 10

My pick: Minnesota 23 Central Michigan 17 ACTUAL: Minnesota 21 Central Michigan 14

My pick: Navy 21 Pitt 17 ACTUAL: Navy 44 Pitt 28

My pick: LSU 30 Texas Tech 21 ACTUAL: LSU 56 Texas Tech 27

My pick: Colorado State 28 Nevada 21 ACTUAL: Nevada 28 Colorado State 23

My pick: North Carolina 45 Baylor 20 ACTUAL: Baylor 49 North Carolina 38

My pick: Cal 44 Air Force 28 ACTUAL: Cal 55 Air Force 36

My pick: Wisconsin 23 USC 17 ACTUAL: Wisconsin 23 USC 21

My pick: Louisville 26 Texas A&M 21 ACTUAL: Louisville 27 Texas A&M 21

My pick: Mississippi State 35 North Carolina State 24 ACTUAL: Mississippi State 51 North Carolina State 28

My pick: Memphis 45 Auburn 31 ACTUAL: Auburn 31 Memphis 10

My pick: Florida State 28 Houston 27 ACTUAL: Houston 38 Florida State 24

My pick: Clemson 35 Oklahoma 28 ACTUAL: Clemson 37 Oklahoma 17

My pick: Alabama 20 Michigan State 17 ACTUAL: Alabama 38 Michigan State 0

FRIDAY, JANUARY 1

Outback: #13 Northwestern (10-2) vs. #23 Tennessee (8-4)

Both teams have been surprising this year, and both would love to finish the year with a win. Northwestern the season 5-0, eliciting much hype about this team being contenders. Then, Michigan and Iowa beat the Wildcats by a combined score of 78-10, wiping out playoff aspirations. Pat Fitzgerald rallied his team to finish the season with five straight wins for their first 10-win season since 1995. A win would give Northwestern their first 11 win season in school history, but that mark will be difficult to achieve. Fitzgerald has built Northwestern by focusing on defense and special teams, but now the offense is starting to contribute. Now they just need to win against a ranked opponent, which has proven difficult for Fitzgerald's teams in the past. Tennessee, as predicted, crumbled in their big games this year. Three of their four losses came to ranked opponents, with the fourth coming against a solid Arkansas team. Their best win came against Georgia, and the Bulldogs just fired their head coach, so it was hardly a memorable year. Butch Jones appears to have the Volunteers heading in a promising direction, and his team could use a win more than any team this bowl season. Without any early departures, Tennessee figures to have 17 returning starters next year (9 on offense and 8 on defense). Tennessee needs to prove it can stop Justin Jackson from gashing them, but the Wildcats need to do the same with Jalen Hurd. The X-factors appear to be the quarterback play, and I'm buying into Joshua Dobbs.

My pick: Tennessee 31 Northwestern 24

Citrus: #14 Michigan (9-3) vs. #19 Florida (10-3)

A roller coaster ride may be the most accurate way to describe both teams' seasons. Michigan was one botched play away from the top ten and Florida had a chance to be in the top five! Both weren't so lucky in achieving those feats. Both teams are coming off games in which they were physically dominated (Michigan to Ohio State and Florida to Alabama and Florida State). Jim Harbaugh and Jim McElwain, both first year coaches at their schools, have brought their teams to national relevancy again, but have a long ways to go. The atmosphere in Ann Arbor and Gainsville changed overnight with the hiring of these two, and the future looks promising. Florida's Jalen Tabor and Vernon Hargreaves III (above) are elite defensive backs and will pressure Amara Darboh Jehu Chesson. The real matchup comes down to who can guard Wolverines TE Jake Butt, who will be playing on Sundays in the future. Hargreaves III and Tabor can shut down the pass game (10th in the nation in pass defense), and Florida's run defense (17th) will give Michigan problems. A defense like that should make this pick easy, but the Wolverines are just as stout on defense. Michigan's run defense (18th) forces teams to pass against them, but with CB Jourdan Lewis and SS Jabrill Peppers, teams rarely find success against the 3rd best pass defense. Ultimately, this game comes down to which defense finally gives more. 

My pick: Florida 21 Michigan 17

Fiesta: #8 Notre Dame (10-2) vs. #7 Ohio State (11-1)

I've been saying this game can go one of two ways, Notre Dame will win a thriller or Ohio State will be angry and crush the Irish. That keeps changing with various injuries and suspensions for each team. Ohio State has been filled with drama this year, most of it dealing with repeating as national champions. They didn't get in and, as much as they want to complain, need to move on. Some of their players have move on already, with Ezekiel Elliott and Cardale Jones saying they won't return after losing to Michigan State (coincidental timing? no way). Now, they have to deal with suspensions and arrests as well as coaches leaving. Chris Ash, the Buckeyes defensive coordinator, was hired as the head coach of Rutgers, Adolphus Washington was suspended, and Elliott was cited during a car accident. Throw that on top of worrying about who's leaving and who's staying, the Buckeyes have their hands full of distractions. Notre Dame is on the opposite side of that spectrum, but there are concerns in the secondary after losing three players.  Brian Kelly has limited distractions for his team and has good leadership among his players, so players leaving for the draft aren't causing issues. Ohio State has had so much drama this year, and I think it will boil over in the bowl game. 

My pick: Notre Dame 38 Ohio State 35

Rose: #6 Stanford (11-2) vs. #5 Iowa (12-1)

If you you liked the Big Ten Championship game for the style of play, this will be a duplicate version of that game. If you didn't like it, don't watch this game. Grind-it-out, tough, and gritty describe both teams perfectly. Iowa is the surprise story of the year, and Stanford recovered from an early slip-up to almost make the playoff. Christian McCaffrey (above) is the star of this game, and Stanford has the names you know, but Iowa is up and coming and will make sure you remember their names. Surprisingly, these teams have a common opponent played this year: Northwestern. Stanford lost 13-3 and Iowa won 40-10. Picking based on these results would be foolish, as they were earlier in the season. Stanford has turned into a different team since that road loss to open the season, and Iowa has silenced the naysayers all year. It comes down to who wants this win more. Iowa struggled to stop Michigan State's ground and pound drive to end the game, and Stanford will try to replicate that by using more offensive lineman. We saw what happens when Iowa wears down, and I think it will be more of the same against the Cardinal.

My pick: Stanford 31 Iowa 24

Sugar: #16 Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. #12 Ole Miss (9-3) 

Are there two more confusing teams in the nation? Probably not. Ole Miss defeated Alabama and then proceeded to lose to Memphis. Oklahoma State ruined TCU's playoff hopes and then were stunned by Baylor. Regardless of what happened during the regular season, this match-up is shaping up to be entertaining. Chad Kelly burst into the starting job at Ole Miss and hasn't looked back. Leaving his troubles in the past, Kelly has shown his cannon for an arm and his ability to extend plays. Sure it helps having a monster at receiver in Laquon Treadwell, but Kelly has give Rebels fans something to look forward to next year. Robert Nkemdiche has been suspended and played his last game at Ole Miss, which brings a great college career to a disappointing end. Nkemdiche will forever be known as the player who showed the nation that five stars can play for Hugh Freeze and win. The Cowboys know how to win with less. Oklahoma State ended it season with a thud, but now need to figure out if Mason Rudolph will play. His foot injury limited his action against Oklahoma to end the year, and JW Walsh has shown he still knows how to play. Whoever plays will be able to look for James Washington. Washington has been a viable safety valve for Cowboy quarterbacks, but you can bet Ole Miss will find a way to bracket him. A barn burner is expected for this game, but Ole Miss' defense has been more consistent this year. Chad Kelly knows to be aware of where defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah is, but double and triple teams should help limit his pressure. Ogbah's teammates have yet to prove they can help their star make plays, and that won't help against the Rebels.

My pick: Ole Miss 42 Oklahoma State 35

SATURDAY, JANUARY 2

Taxslayer: Penn State (7-5) vs. Georgia (9-3)

Taxslayer Bowl? Should be called the Dissapointment Bowl if you ask each fan base. Penn State and Georgia have endured letdowns in terms of winning (yet the Bulldogs won nine games). James Franklin's second year in Happy Valley didn't go much better than the first, and their first game was a perfect indication of how the season would play out. The Nittany Lions lost to Temple, and Christian Hackenberg was sacked 10 times. While the losing didn't continue as much (or as badly), the sight of Hackenberg on the ground did. Penn State ranked tied for 119th in sacks allowed, so Georgia's front seven should have their ears pinned back frequently. Georgia has fired its coach after a nine win season that included numerous injuries, but none more important than the loss of Nick Chubb (above). Sony Michel has done a great job finishing the season, but Chubb's production was sorely missed. In their biggest games this year, Georgia has flopped big time (losses to Alabama 38-10 and Florida 27-3), but the excitement of new hire Kirby Smart should boost the Bulldogs in this game. Talent-wise, this game isn't even close with all of the four and five-start players on Georgia's roster, and this game will show that disparity.

My pick: Georgia 24 Penn State 14

Liberty: Kansas State (6-6) vs. Arkansas (7-5)

Bill Snyder is one of the most iconic figures in college football, and somehow he keeps producing teams that make bowl games. Snyder's Wildcats finished 6-6 after going 3-6 in Big 12 play. Positive outlooks for the seasoned dwindled quickly when K-State lost their first six conference games, but they became bowl eligible by finishing the year with three wins (two by a combined four points against Iowa State and West Virginia). I don't know if you can call this a reward, but the Wildcats are rewarded by facing the most physical team they will face all year. Arkansas' lineman are massive, and that has helped Alex Collins run all over Razorback's opponents even after the early loss of Jonathan Williams. Bret Bielema may have lost a few year's on his life with all the drama this year, but not all was bad. Hunter Henry's lateral on fourth and 25 against Ole Miss led to a stunner, Arkansas put a beatdown on #9 LSU the next week, and then lost a heart-breaker to Mississippi State 51-50 the week after. What used to be a one dimensional offense has now evolved into a potent attack via the run and pass. Brandon Allen (above) has gone from mediocre passer to a threat throwing the ball in his third year at starting quarterback. Arkansas' offense used to be line up 8 hogs on the line and give the ball to Collins while using play action to keep defenses honest. Now, they can use shotgun as well as under center, which makes defenses worry. Kansas State played the best in the Big 12, but they haven't seen an offensive line with the size the Razorbacks have. It may be a long day for the Wildcats on defense.

My pick: Arkansas 38 Kansas State 24

Alamo: #15 Oregon (9-3) vs. #11 TCU (10-2)

Games that are hyped up to provide a lot of scoring usually don't live up to that hype. Sure they may still be high scoring, but the scores often times are moon shots. TCU and Oregon know how to put up a lot of points and to do it quickly. Oregon's been trying to outscore opponents for years now, while TCU started the trend last year. Both teams have dealt with much adversity this year: Oregon went from championship contender to three loss chumps in six weeks, while TCU lost pretty much every starter that stepped on the field to injury. Both were projected to make the playoff this year, but they will have to settle for playing each other in the Alamo Bowl. Oregon's Royce Freeman is one of the best in the nation, and he has carried his team while the quarterback situation was figured out. Vernon Adams Jr. (above) has been dealing with an injured index finger on his throwing arm, which limited him or kept him out of multiple games. In a season of what-ifs, Adams provided the best case based on his performance in the games he participated (also while healthy). I have no doubt Oregon would have made the playoff or a New Year's Six bowl game had Adams been healthy the whole season. TCU has another good case of what-if, but their case has too many individual what-ifs. I've lost count as to how many Horned Frogs made their debut this year, because it seemed like every week there was a new player lining up to play. The fact that they are 10-2 is actually astonishing, but TCU is still disappointed. Trevone Boykin has been a nightmare for defenses with his arm and scrambling abilities (even getting a high five from Dana Holgorsen). For this game, he will have to play without his favorite target, Josh Doctson. Doctson has been outstanding this year and his athleticism help him stand out on game day, but his latest injury will prevent the college football world from watching. Bruised and battered, this Frogs team can still compete and the Ducks know that. Oregon's improvement on defense will be the difference in the game.

My pick: Oregon 40 TCU 39

Cactus: West Virginia (7-5) vs. Arizona State (6-6) 

Sometimes, high expectations catch up to teams. Expectations are great to have, but they can ruin a team quickly if the team isn't living up to those standards. The Mountaineers and Sun Devils learned that this year. High aspirations should be what they focused on. West Virginia and Arizona State both wanted better seasons, but they hype of people saying they were good turned things south quickly. Todd Graham had his team mentally prepared for this season, and it appeared the Sun Devils had the right attitude even after graduating one of their most prolific players in Taylor Kelly. What they weren't prepared for was Texas A&M, and the Aggies provided a rude wake-up call in the first game of the year. Mike Bercovici has shown he can produce as a starter, and that last year was not a fluke. A name that has been forgotten is DJ Foster (above), who at the beginning of the year was considered a dark horse for the Heisman. The Sun Devil's struggles are illustrated Foster's lack of productions as teams were able to limit his production all year. If Graham wants momentum for next year, Foster needs to get going quick against the Mountaineers. West Virginia came out of the gate on fire at 3-0, but proceeded to lose four straight. While Dana Holgorsen righted the ship, a loss to Kansas State was a disappointing end to the year. Skyler Howard has been erratic at times, making WVU rely on Wendell Smallwood and the running game heavily. While Smallwood has rushed for almost 1500 yards, the Mountaineers need Howard to be accurate to compete with ASU. 

My pick: Arizona State 33 West Virginia 30

College Football

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Written by

Joey Broback

UWEC alum. College football enthusiast from the State of Hockey.

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