Why Your Favorite Conference USA Team Will and Won't Make a Playoff Run
Many experts have pegged the Conference USA and Sun Belt as the worst conferences in the FBS, and that the two should be combined. Trust me, they're sick of hearing that. Neither conference wants anything to do with a merger, so let's just end that discussion here. Conference USA seems to be out to prove something, and the top teams will challenge the Power 5 competition on their schedule. Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech are pegged to win the two divisions, but teams like Middle Tennessee, UTSA, North Texas, and Old Dominion might have something to say about that. It is a long shot for any of these teams to make a playoff run, but that doesn't mean they aren't entertaining to watch.
PREVIOUSLY: BIG 12, MAC, PAC-12, MOUNTAIN WEST, SEC, SUN BELT
LOUISIANA TECH
WILL: Ryan Higgins had one of the best passing seasons in college football last year, but he almost didn't get an opportunity to do so. Higgins sat out the first game, and J’Mar Smith was given the start. Smith nearly led the Bulldogs to an upset of Arkansas, but Higgins was still given the start the next week. Now that he is gone, Smith will be given control of the offense. This team is still dangerous and has been consistent under Skip Holtz.
WON’T: The word about Holtz is that he’s good for nine wins a year. Need five wins? He’ll get you nine. Need 11 wins? He’ll get you nine. While that consistency isn’t a bad thing, fans are expecting him to take the next step with Smith in 2017. Problem is, Smith needs to gel with new targets. Carlos Henderson and Trent Taylor, two of the best Bulldog players in the school’s history, are off to the NFL. It may be hard for Smith to find weapons, and, believe it or not, fans may not be happy with another nine win season.
WESTERN KENTUCKY
WILL: Mike White (above) returns as one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and the Hilltoppers will once again score a lot of points (Week 3 against Louisiana Tech is going to be insane). Under his leadership, Western Kentucky was one of the top offenses in the country, finishing 1st in scoring and 5th in yards per game. What fans may not have realized was the Hilltoppers defense also posted a good season, finishing in the top 40. New head coach Mike Sanford has plenty of talent to work with in order to make a run.
WON’T: Even if they go undefeated, there’s no chance they make the playoff. As with nearly all Conference USA teams, a playoff run just isn’t going to happen due to strength of schedule. Unless the playoff gets expanded, these teams are going to have to either steal better recruits or create more difficult schedules. Sanford also has big shoes to fill with the exit of Jeff Brohm, and that could create extra pressure.
OLD DOMINION
WILL: Ray Lawry will be one of the best backs in the conference, and the Monarchs have proven they are capable of double digit wins. In just their third year in the conference, Bobby Wilder’s team is a contender, and could make some noise in their non-conference games. Games against North Carolina and Virginia Tech will determine how far they’ve come.
WON’T: Games against North Carolina and Virginia Tech will probably show us how far they still have to go. Old Dominion’s first three seasons at the FBS level have resulted in an 0-4 record against Power 5 competition by an average of over 19 points. They should compete for the conference title, but this conference just isn’t poised for a run.
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WILL: Two players to watch: Ito Smith and Allenzae Staggers. Smith is the workhorse, and never rushed for less than 60 yards in any game last season, while also scoring a touchdown in 11 of their 13 games. Whoever wins the quarterback job will get the luxury of throwing to Staggers, who has the potential to be a star. He finished with 1,165 yards and seven touchdowns, and also had two games of 200+ yards receiving.
WON’T: Even with fourth year starter Nick Mullens, the Golden Eagles finished just 7-6. Now he’s gone, and even with Smith and Staggers, it will be tough for them to get back to a bowl game. Two SEC teams (Kentucky and Tennessee) also present themselves on this year’s schedule, and that doesn’t bode well for a playoff run.
UTEP
WILL: Well, at least guard Will Hernandez will be good.
WON’T: The Miners may improve, but they have only had one winning season since 2005. Oklahoma awaits in Week 1. A bowl game should be more of a goal.
FIU
WILL: Head coach Butch Davis had success at North Carolina before a scandal forced him off campus. The Panthers could use a little boost.
WON’T: I can only find one guaranteed win on the schedule. Doesn’t mean that FIU won’t surprise me, but it does prove that a playoff run isn’t feasible.
CHARLOTTE
WILL: Kemba Walker is one of the most underrated players in the….oh, wrong Charlotte? At least Michael Jordan owns the team. Wrong again? Oh well. Remember when Kemba sent Pitt’s Gary McGhee to the ground and basically carried UConn in the postseason? Good times.
WON’T: We didn't even talk about the 49ers in the "Will" section so I think you get the idea.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WILL: Brent Stockstill (above) is a southpaw quarterback who can light up defenses, and he has two of his top targets back Richie James and Ty Lee, who both stand at 5’9”, give the Blue Raiders a lethal offense that will be hard to stop. If MTSU can start the year 3-0, they may have a chance at a playoff run.
WON’T: Vanderbilt, at Syracuse, and at Minnesota are the first three games. It will be tough to make it out undefeated, and that still might not be enough. Unless the Conference USA gets significantly better, this team may struggle to break the top 25.
UAB
WILL: It’s the first year back after a bizarre discontinuation and revival, but I think everyone involved is happy the Blazers are back.
WON’T: No one even knows what year any of their players are. There is still plenty to figure out within the program, so just winning a couple games will be the goal.
RICE
WILL: Last time the Owls went 3-9, they followed it up with a 10-3 season.
WON’T: Current debate of what’s worse: the team or their new logo.
NORTH TEXAS
WILL: Offensive coordinator Graham Harrell knows a thing or two about scoring points, and, along with the talent returning, the Mean Green are expected to compete for West crown this year.
WON’T: Just like Harrell’s Texas Tech teams, the Mean Green were bad defensively. A reality check in Week 3 against Iowa also will put a damper on the beginning of the season.
FAU
WILL: Lane Kiffin is the most talked about coach in the Group of 5, and quite possibly the nation right now. He has snagged some interesting talent to come to campus, and there are some returners that could provide an exciting run.
WON’T: Is it sad that Nick Saban chewing him out might have been as good as it gets for Kiffin? His track record as a head coach is less than impressive, and now he doesn’t have the talent he used to.
MARSHALL
WILL: Doc Holliday has shown he can produce a winner in Huntington, and all of this talk of him being on the hot seat is comical. He returns soon-to-be three-year starter Chase Litton, and there should be plenty of options around him.
WON’T: It could be that Holliday’s run is over. In a win-now college football world, he may not have time to turn things around from last year. Apparently a three-win season erases the 33 he had the three years previously, and that is ridiculous. Marshall should bounce back, not enough to make a run, but a bowl game isn’t out of the question.
UTSA
WILL: Frank Wilson is off to a hot start, and has the Roadrunners in a position to be competitive in the conference. Many experts have them pegged as a dark horse to win their division, and Wilson’s recruiting and energy are a big reason. If quarterback Dalton Sturm can improve, they will take a step in the right direction.
WON’T: Houston and Baylor are their first two opponents. Houston may have turnover and Baylor may be dealing with scandal, but the Roadrunners aren’t nearly as talented as either team. The focus probably will be on the conference championship to begin with, and they probably will be facing an 0-2 start.
