Oct. 19, 2016
Week 5 Picks.................................TOM BRADY IS BACK
Blaine Gabbert sucks, that's not news or cool. Bruno Mars released a new single, and it's really good, that's news and really cool. I really can't rant about Gabbert anymore, if you still think he's better than Kap you hate Afro's or something.
The NFL is getting harder to watch, and it's because there's a serious lack of talent. For now, I'll talk about QB's. These guys aren't that good. Issue is, the traditional stats you're used point to them being good. Completion percentage (which I hate) and QB Rating (which I also hate). These stats completely ignore the way the NFL has changed. Teams are ignoring the traditional run games for conservative pass concepts resulting in easy completions for QB's driving up these stats. If you just look at stats you completely ignore what a QB is supposed to do; make the defense adjust to the offense. In week 1 Kirk Cousins completed 69.8% of his passes, and threw for 329 yards. On the surface it's a good game right? Wrong, he did what the defense wanted him to do. Pittsburgh has a terrible secondary, so they played a cover 4 shell all game, because they wanted Cousins to check down, and he did time and time again. Taking what the defense allows isn't good QB play. Another QB is Derek Carr, and we'll focus on his week 2 performance. This week Carr averaged only 6.6 yards per attempt, for reference 25 QB's were better in this regard that week. He completed over 75% of his passes and had a great QB rating, at 115.0. Yet, in this game he continually checked down quickly. This was another bad performance traditional stats will tell you was good. When you simply "Box score scout" you can't account for game planning, and what the QB is actually asked to do. That's why so many people want to say Andrew Luck isn't playing well, but give him the DC Football team's weapons or the Raider's weapons and see what he can do. Not too mention both teams also have better offensive coordinators.
For some perspective, let's look at who I believe is the most accurate QB ever, Steve Young. We'll ignore his Tampa Years and focus on just his career averages with San Francisco. In SF, Steve Young had a career passer rating of 101.4 and a completion % of 65.8. There are currently 7 NFL players who are performing better than Young's career average. There's no way there are 7 NFL QB's who are better than Young was. Maybe 2 are in the same class, Brady and Rodgers, and that's where it stops. Keep in mind Young's best year came with a young Terrell Owens and JJ Stokes before you say; "He had the greatest WR ever." Young was simply a great QB, top 5 all time, and now players put up similar or better numbers and they aren't close to him. Fantasy Football and 24 hour coverage has warped people's minds into believing players are better than they actually are. It won't stop and will only get worse, but the list of truly great players in the NFL is very small, and it's only going to get worse.
I'd like to write more about QB's, but it's frustrating. There's not many truly great QB's in the NFL right now. 5 maybe 6? Luck, Newton, and Wilson are getting closer but they aren't there. Luck is still ahead of the other 2. Truly great QB's no where their WR is going to be/should be in the face of pressure, they ignore the pressure and throw the ball in time. It looks effortless, and they don't try to escape the pocket or check down when there's a clean pocket. Issue is, Luck, Wilson, Newton, Carr, Cousins, Dalton, etc either can't do this yet or don't. They make flash plays, and have talent around them, but they aren't consistently challenging defenses and making them adjust. Throw all the stats you want out there, but they aren't there. They aren't in the Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben, Rivers class. I know people will go "Rivers HA" QB wins aren't a stat and Rivers has been consistently great on a bad team. That second group isn't close to the first group. That first group might be remembered as the last truly great group of QB's to play at the same time.
Patriots over Browns
This week when Patriots players were asked how Tom Looked, 5 players responded; "Handsome" others responded; "Stylish, Ready, pumped up, handsome again." Tom Brady, welcome back you handsome mother fucker.
Lions over Eagles
I like Matt Stafford.
Colts over Bears
Andrew Luck needs to be rescued from Indy, but he won't be, ever and it's stupid. Meanwhile the Bears have no defense.
Dolphins over Titans
Mike Mularkey is an NFL Coach guys, he sucks.
Ravens over DC Football team
If not for drops, both from their defense and offense against the Raiders last week Baltimore would be 4-0.
Vikings over Texans
This Vikings defense is the class of the NFC, and Zimmer is coach of the year.
Steelers over Jets
I told you guys during the offseason sucks. Now he's proving me right.
Broncos over Falcons
Broncos won't have to worry about Julio as much because of their pass rush.
Bengals over Cowboys
Cowboys usually are better on the Road then home and the Bengals are a better team then their 2-2 record.
Rams over Bills
LA Rams huh? Weird to say, but the Bills are still struggling on offense, and playing Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn won't help.
Raiders over Chargers
I'm still not sold on the Raiders, but the Chargers are bad. They let Eric Weddle go (dumb) Jason Verret is out, and Joey Bosa held out and isn't playing well. Phillip Rivers career has been wasted.
Packers over Giants
Jordy is open, and Aaron will find him. Also, Packers are at home, for a night game.
Panthers over Bucs
Bleeding needs to stop for Panthers.
Take the Rams to cover the 2 point spread against the Bills.
Take the Steelers Jets over. At 48, it seems low. Steelers might score 30+ every week and garbage time helps gamblers on the Jets ends.
Take the Patriots and Browns over. 46.5? I feel like Brady wants to hang 50 this week.
Thanks for reading.