Who Fed It: 2019 Week 17, Part 1
Who Fed It And Who Ate It on the final week of the regular season will be broken into two installments. Part 1 will be an examination into the 12 playoff qualifiers, while Part 2 will be covering what's happened with the 20 remaining teams with their seasons concluded.
With 17 weeks of football behind us, now we get to that special time known as the postseason, where reputations are made and legends are born.
That said, it should be noted that each of the other American based major team sports leagues all crowned first time champions. The National Hockey League (St. Louis Blues), National Basketball Association (Toronto Raptors), & Major League Baseball (Washington Nationals) titlists of 2019 did not have the pedigree of championship success as others in their respective tournaments, and were underdogs in part or in whole of their runs to their sport's summit.
So as your humble scribe will write a capsule on each team, one focus that will be made is what could be their exploitable weakness that could end their Super Bowl dreams.
NFC
1. San Francisco 49ers The Niners won a thrilling Sunday Night contest over the Seattle Seahawks on the road to ensure the road to the George S. Halas Trophy runs right through Santa Clara. With a tenacious defense and an explosive run game, currently led by RB Raheem Mostert, San Fran plays a game that can win games anywhere. If any of the other NFC teams wants to play in Super Bowl LIV, they will need to get that 49ers defense on its heels and stifle the three headed ground attack of Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Matt Breida. That puts the game in the hands of QB Jimmy Garoppolo, which is the best bet to turn away the NFC's 1 seed. Garoppolo has made some clutch throws through the year, yes, but his confidence can be shaken, especially if he gets off to a rough start. Plus, head coach and offensive play caller Kyle Shanahan can get overly aggressive in close games, which could work to Garoppolo's detriment. Beating the 49ers in Santa Clara will not be easy, but it is possible.
2. Green Bay Packers The infusion of new blood in head coach Matt Lafleur has pushed Titletown into a plum spot in the NFC playoffs as the Pack enjoys a first round bye and a home game at Lambeau Field, where the elements can be just as difficult to overcome as the squad dressed in green and gold. Oddly enough, even posting a 13-3 regular season record, Green Bay has been uneven. On offense, the skill positions, specifically at wide receiver, are teeming with youth. The issue with that is the lack of repetition with QB Aaron Rodgers, whose famed accuracy and playmaking ability has been stunted. Defensively, despite only surrendering 19.6 points per game, they are vulnerable once the pass rushing duo of Za'Darius Smith & Preston Smith have been neutralized. The Packers are not to be taken lightly, as Rodgers has a wealth of experience in January and does possess that 2 seed advantage. But if an opponent can win time of possession, wearing down that defense and limiting Rodgers' chances to score, the Pack can be sent home without a fifth Lombardi Trophy.
3. New Orleans Saints This is arguably the most complete team in the league. From future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees and his loaded offense to DE Cameron Jordan and a disruptive defense, the Saints should be viewed as the most dangerous team in the NFC. And as such, any edge that can be found needs to be exploited by their opposition. One glaring weakness is the Saints away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. They are 6-1 in those friendly confines under head coach Sean Payton, but 1-5 playing elsewhere in the playoffs. The Minnesota Vikings will have the daunting task of playing the Saints in that dome, so what can they do to pull off the upset? The only way teams can beat such competition: win in the trenches. The Vikings (or anyone facing the Saints this January) will need to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to give them the best chance to upend a New Orleans team that has been painfully close to winning their second Super Bowl berth in franchise history the last two years.
4. Philadelphia Eagles It's a little surprising to see the Eagles as the NFC East champion. After being outplayed by the talent bereft Miami Dolphins to slide to 5-7, everybody was putting the fork in Philly. Instead, the Eagles go on a tear, win four straight, all over division rivals, to take the NFC East and the conference's 4 seed. In truth, it seems as though that the Eagles weaknesses are well known and their strengths are forgotten. But this is a team that last won the Super Bowl for the NFC 3 years ago as underdogs, so does anyone want to write them off? To put these Green Birds down, the run game of Philly must be shut down to force QB Carson Wentz to rely on his depleted receiving corps, and the Eagles secondary needs to be hit early and often, as injuries have left that unit exposed.
5. Seattle Seahawks The Seahawks do not look all that impressive statistically, but they were literally three inches from winning the NFC West. Like some of the other teams in the NFC playoff field, their previous experience will serve them well once action begins on Sunday. Beating the 'Hawks will require two things; taking care of the ball and containing MVP candidate Russell Wilson. Seattle is not a stout unit in terms of limiting yardage and points, but they are aggressive in generating turnovers. Keep those ballhawks at bay and the defense loses its bite. On offense, they run the ball well, but are left with young rookie Travis Homer and re-signed Seahawk legend Marshawn Lynch. That means keeping Wilson in the defenses line of sight is key to eliminate the Seahawks.
6. Minnesota Vikings The Vikings got here with RB Dalvin Cook slashing through opposing defenses and a defensive front four that dominated opposing offenses. However, their Week 16 loss to the Green Bay Packers that decided the NFC North champion was a blueprint in defeating Minnesota, and that is make QB Kirk Cousins win the game. His best games this year were against defenses and/or secondaries in the lower tier of league metrics, and Cousins came up small against better competition with turnovers standing out more than anything else. This has been a knock on Cousins through his career, and it will continue to be one until he breaks it. This is the time to do it.
AFC
1. Baltimore Ravens The NFL's top team, going 14-2, running a 12 game win streak into the playoffs, all the while riding the lightning bolt that is prohibitive NFL MVP favorite QB Lamar Jackson.... It looks like everything's coming up Baltimore. Allow your humble scribe to be a proverbial wet blanket. The Ravens only losses this year were in September; on the short end of a shootout in Kansas City and a dud against Cleveland. Further, while the Ravens have earned the AFC's top seed, they also take a week off amidst this long win streak. The great concern with this team is how they will respond to adversity. Everything has went so well for the Charmed City Birds, how will they react when giveaways sap momentum? Or if the defense finds themselves in a hole? And will they have a bit of rust due to that first round bye? The Ravens have all the pieces to grab their third Super Bowl title in franchise history, but many great teams through time have fallen short. They must avoid any pitfalls to keep their Lombardi Trophy aspirations alive.
2. Kansas City Chiefs Last year's top seed in the AFC experienced some adversity this year, as reigning league MVP Patrick Mahomes missed a handful of games due to a knee injury and the much maligned defense still struggled under new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. But as the season wore on, the Chiefs got better with Mahomes returning to the lineup and the D getting their sea legs, especially against the pass. So entering this postseason, the Chiefs need to be wary of teams who prefer to run the football. KC's defense is ranked 26th in yards allowed, and teams who run the ball effectively on offense serve a defensive function by keeping the dangerous Mahomes on the sidelines. The Chiefs are hot at just the right time and look to rectify coming up short last year. But like many playoff teams, they need to play their game to be successful. The Chiefs can ill afford to surrender control of the game tempo, and an opponent slowing the game with a meticulous run attack is KC's worst case scenario.
3. New England Patriots The defending Super Bowl champions find themselves in an unfamiliar circumstance as the Patriots will be playing on Wild Card Weekend, the first time the Boston Bling Company will do so in a decade. And it should be noted that the Patriots under head coach Bill Belichick have never reached the Super Bowl playing three consecutive postseason weekends. This is not to say that it's impossible. It would be wise not to rule out these Pats until they are officially eliminated from contention. And if any teams want to send the champs packing, they will need to stymie New England's offense. Even with future first ballot Hall of Famer Tom Brady under center, the Patriots offense plays small ball. Without a legitimate deep threat to take the lid off opposing defenses, the Pats are relegated to moving the chains. If opponents can bottle up the offense, even the league leading defense in both points and yardage surrendered will eventually crack. Expect the Patriots to make a spirited title defense, but they are far from invincible entering this postseason.
4. Houston Texans This is one of the more puzzling teams in all of football, regardless of level. The Texans can run a wire to wire victory over the Patriots, then turn in a clunker against a middling Denver Broncos team that was going nowhere. With QB Deshaun Watson, WR DeAndre Hopkins, and a returning DE J.J. Watt, the Texans have the talent to take the AFC by storm. But for some reason or another, they can never put it all together. Since Houston has the capability of beating any team in their path, the only team they must avoid beating is the Texans. 2011 was the last time a team lower than a 2 seed in either conference advanced to the Super Bowl, and Houston is the best team in a while to buck that trend. But they must play their best ball and not be their worst enemy.
5. Buffalo Bills This has been a pleasant surprise for those in upstate New York, as their Bills rebounded from a down 2018 to post their best record in 20 years to earn a wild card berth. Buffalo was unable to wrest control of the AFC East from the Patriots, and went on a put up a sluggish 1-3 December. The defense, especially against the pass, have brought the Bills to the postseason dance, but if they want to make the Super Bowl stage, they have to avoid putting the game in QB Josh Allen's hands. He may be the future franchise player, but it is too soon for this second year signal caller to put the Bills on his back to take them to the promised land. Buffalo can run the ball and can play defense, two necessities of January football. But they are not serious Super Bowl contenders in 2019. The experience gained by this young team will serve them in the long run.
6. Tennessee Titans Earlier in the season, the Titans were left for dead. Quarterbacks were changed, as Marcus Mariota was benched and veteran Ryan Tannehill was promoted. The formerly deposed Miami Dolphins starter enjoyed a renaissance campaign, as his play was key in bringing Tennessee within striking distance of the AFC South crown. They ultimately lost it to the Texans, but they still punched their ticket to the playoffs. If the New England Patriots, or any other AFC contender, wants to beat the Titans, they must not let Tennessee control the tempo of the game. Titans RB Derrick Henry is one of the most powerful rushers in the league today, and Tannehill uses that ground threat to open up the passing game. The Titans cannot do so if their defense finds themselves in a shootout. Anyone dismissing the Titans out of hand do so at their own peril. The Blues and Nationals were at one point in their respective seasons considered down and out, only to make the mother of all runs to hoist the hardware when it was said and done. And given the history of the NFL, does anyone want to give up on the Tennessee Titans?
