NFL Week 9 Preview
We are now at the half-way point of this NFL season. Everyone has either played out their first 8 games or will do so this coming week. Now that we are just as close to the end of the season as we are to the beginning, there is a sense of urgency around many teams. Or at least there should be. If you have 2 or fewer losses going into to this point in the season, you feel relatively secure in your position. But anyone with 3 or more losses already can't afford too many slips. There are a few teams in each of those 2 groups featured this week, and all of them are facing a tough assignment this Sunday. Let's start in London with an ever important division game.
Texans vs Jaguars
The AFC South race is about as tight as could be. With all teams having 4 or 5 wins, anyone could take command of the division with a string of wins. Before the year started, I would have thought that Houston would be in firm control of the South, but that has clearly not been the case. With one of the brightest young stars in the league under center, a handful of good skill position players, and solid defense, the Texans have so much potential. While they are still a good team by any measure, I think it's fair to say that they are underachieving.
The Jaguars' season has been a totally different story. After the newly acquired Nick Foles went down in week 1, some little-known QB named Gardner Minshew has had to run the show. Gardner would be set up with a mediocre O-line, a RB who's never reached his potential, a nameless WR group, and a defense whose best days are behind them. Yet somehow, this team is really hanging in there. Minshew has surprised everyone. Fournette is finally hitting his stride. And the defense, while not as good as it used to be, is still doing it's job. As a result, the Jaguars have scratched and clawed their way to some early wins to put them within striking distance of the top spot in the South. Although they don't have as much talent as a team like Houston, they are full of life and have the drive and determination that you need to win games in this game. I think they will continue to show that this week in London.
Jaguars win, 22-20
Vikings vs Chiefs
Coming into 2019, Minnesota and Kansas City were in very different positions as far as their expectations were concerned. The Vikings had a whole lot of question marks around them as the new season began. Starting the season 2-2 with a pair of division losses didn't help matters. The Chiefs on the other hand were coming off of a 1st seed finish, and a similar result was expected as a follow-up. Their 4-0 start was was no surprise. Just business as usual. But now, things have switched a bit. The Vikings have taken 4 in a row by multiple scores, but the Chiefs have dropped 3 of their last 4. Both are still in playoff position, but both are also aiming to move up the ranks.
At this point, I don't know who is better between the two. But what I do know is that the Vikings match up really well for this game. The Chiefs' abysmal run defense should allow Dalvin Cook to tear it up right out of the gate. That will open up the passing game early for Minnesota, and they could really do some damage. The Vikings also have strengths in rushing the QB and picking them off. Whether it is Matt Moore or an injured Patrick Mahomes running the offense, those things will cause a lot of problems for KC. As much as I want to see a really tight game between two contenders in Kansas City this week, I really feel that a romp is more likely.
Vikings win, 38-21
Titans vs Panthers
There is an uphill climb ahead for both Tennessee and Carolina. With 4 wins putting them right around the middle of their conferences, each of them will have to put in some work to put themselves above the other contenders in the league. But only one of them can take a step closer to achieving that this week. The other will sink a little further down in the standings, making a playoff run seem almost unreachable. The winning team will still have a tough road ahead of them, but every step closer counts.
When I look at these two teams, they seem to be near carbon copies of one another. Both are rooted in their superstar RB's. They have both protected the football well, but have not always done the same for their QB's. They have, however, applied plenty of pressure to opposing passers. That pass rushing ability has been a key contributor in their strong defenses. The Titans' D appears a bit better on paper, but also having easier competition, it's hard to say. Both teams were led by athletic, former top 2 draft picks at the QB position, but they have both been on the bench recently, and their teams have been better since. On top of it all, the Titans and Panthers are both coached by Super Bowl Champion players.
There is, however, one factor that tilts the scales in one team's favor. Christian McCaffrey. The 23-year-old RB has established himself as one of the league's very best in just his 3rd season. He is a true X-factor on the football field. In a matchup as even as this, the best players find a way to break the tie and carry the team on their back. I believe that's just what McCaffrey will do this week.
Panthers win, 26-20
Patriots vs Ravens
The Patriots just don't go away. Nearly two decades into their dynasty, they are still a cut above the rest. They have been aided by a poor schedule this season. Their opponents have a combined record of 14-37. However, that takes very little away from their performance. It all starts with the defense. New England has allowed a minuscule 7.6 points per game. That is mostly due to how they have absolutely manhandled every QB they have faced. Opposing passers have been picked off 19 times, sacked 31 times, and have combined for a passer rating of 40.6. New England is also good against the run, but that has been pretty much a non-factor since teams are always playing from behind. The Patriots offense hasn't been particularly special compared to some of their other seasons. All they've done is lead the league in points, scoring 31.3 per game. I don't care who they've played. This level of dominance is utterly absurd.
If there is any offense that can break through the great wall of New England, it might be right here in Baltimore. The Ravens are just a hair behind the Patriots in terms of scoring points, putting up 30.6 per game. Nobody has ran the ball quite like Baltimore. With nearly 1,500 yards already and 5.5 yards per touch, they really are in a class of their own. Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have both been effective when used, but the real star has been Lamar Jackson who has lead the team in rushing yards with 576 through just 7 games. Jackson has also improved as a passer, but still does have some room for improvement.
The Patriots have been somewhat untested in stopping the run to this point. I think they could be a bit overwhelmed with this unorthodox, run-heavy offense. But Belichick always find a way to adapt and overcome. The Ravens also have stopped opponents passers very well, albeit, not nearly as well as New England. However, they do have very little pass rush, which is a vital factor in stopping Tom Brady. The Ravens can certainly put up a fight this week, but they are simply outmatched by the Patriots, just like everyone else.
Patriots win, 31-27
