Pick 6: NFL Week 5
Week 4 of this NFL season delivered plenty of excitement. The week started with the much anticipated Vikings-Rams game. That game met expectations, and the Rams took it 38-31 to remain undefeated. Another 3-0 team, the Dolphins, had their undefeated stretch come to a grinding halt with an embarrassment in New England. Speaking of embarrassments, "FitzMagic" came to an end in Tampa when Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched at halftime in Chicago. The Bears would win that game 48-10 led by Mitchell Trubisky and his unbelievable 6 TD performance.
Amoung the blowouts, there were some tight finishes, including three overtime thrillers. In Indianapolis, Colts head coach Frank Reich was criticized for going for a 4th down conversion in a tie game from their own 43 yard-line with 27 seconds to go in OT. The Colts couldn't convert, and the Texans would kick a game winning field goal. Meanwhile, in Tennessee, the Titans converted on 4th down 3 different times on their game winning OT drive. They weren't tied like the Colts. They were down by 3. They didn't have a choice on the first two, but they could've kicked a 50-yard field goal instead of going for it the 3rd time. Rookie coach Mike Vrabel took the risk, and it paid off with a win over the reigning Super Bowl Champs.
The week capped off with yet another impressive outing by Patrick Mahomes. This time he led a late 10-point comeback over the Broncos to make the Chiefs 4-0.
There hasn't been a dull week yet, and week 5 won't be an exception. There's 15 games this week. Let's pick 6.
Dolphins vs Bengals
Two surprise division leaders will face off at noon this Sunday. Both teams are 3-1, and I'm not sure how. I haven't seen any games featuring either team yet. Looking at the stats, nothing stands out. Tannehill and Dalton have been good, but not outstanding. Neither team has much to speak of in the backfield. Both defenses need work. However, somehow, someway, these teams have found ways to win football games this season. But one of them will not be able to do that his week.
I'm still not entirely sure what to make of either team. But I do see one thing in particular deciding this game. Turnovers. Miami has taken the ball away 10 times. That's tied for 3rd in the league, and they have a differential of +4. The Bengals have given the ball away 7 times, and their differential is -2. Turnovers make or break games. Miami's ball control will be the key factor in a close game.
Dolphins win, 26-24
Browns vs Ravens
There's something about Baker Mayfield that is really intriguing. I wasn't a fan of his going into the draft. I certainly didn't think he was worth a #1 pick. But he has impressed me with his confidence. I don't think I've ever seen a rookie QB show so much poise. His start last week was far from flawless. Four turnovers is a pretty big deal. However, I see a lot of potential. The Browns may have finally done something right for a change.
This Sunday, Baker plays his first divisional opponent, the Baltimore Ravens. Baker Mayfield is about to realize what it's like to be in the AFC North. Playing in this division is a whole different ballgame. These games are the ones that will shape his career as a Brown. He will have his work cut out for him Sunday.
Flacco won't have a walk in the park either. Cleveland's defense is good. Really good. Myles Garrett leads a fierce pass rush, and they lead the league in takeaways with 13.
Points will be hard to come by. Joe Flacco's experience will give a slight advantage to Baltimore.
Ravens win, 20-16
Jaguars vs Chiefs
The #1 offense is set to take on the #1 defense in Arrowhead. What Patrick Mahomes has done in 4 games is absolutely marvelous. This guy can fling the ball endzone to endzone with the flick of his wrist. He can improvise in the backfield and make any throw from just about any position. I don't think there will ever be another Brett Favre, but this is about as close as we'll get.
Mahomes will be given his biggest test of the regular season against Jacksonville. The Jags haven't topped the charts on sacks and takeaways like 2017, but they are only giving up 170 passing yards and 14 points per game. If anyone can lock down Tyreek Hill, it's Jalen Ramsey, and A.J. Bouye shouldn't have many problems with Sammy Watkins. The Chiefs need to establish their run game early because Mahomes will need all the help he can get.
There may be one obstacle for Mahomes that is larger than the Jags defense. His own defense. That is the constant struggle in Kansas City. Jacksonville's offense, especially without Fournette, doesn't turn many heads, but they should have a field day against KC.
Despite everything stacked against him, I still think Mahomes will pull out a win. This kid is special, and I'm not betting against him any time soon.
Chiefs win, 31-30
Falcons vs Steelers
Two top tier contenders are seeking their second win of the year. A lot of people predicted one or both of these teams to make a Super Bowl appearance this season. Well, that's certainly an uphill battle now. A 1-4 or 1-3-1 start is nearly impossible to recover from.
On paper, these teams aren't too much different. Both teams have a great passer and a top tier WR to get the bulk of the targets. Both teams have paper thin defenses. Normally both teams have great running games, but, as we all know, Le'Veon Bell is still absent, which swings a point in Atlanta's favor.
More importantly than the running game, Atlanta's locker room is more stable. The Steelers are like a reality TV show. There's always some kind of drama with them, and that leads to a lot of inconsistent play. When was the last time the Falcons had any off-field drama? I can't recall a time. That's part of why they are so much more reliable. Even though they are 1-3, the Falcons have still had strong showings against very good football teams. The Steelers have had a couple ugly ones.
Pittsburgh should be a much better team than they are, and normally, I would like them at home against just about anybody. But I just can't trust them anymore.
Falcons win, 31-23
Vikings vs Eagles
Two more teams in a seemingly "must-win" situation. There are some talented teams in the North and East, and digging out of a hole won't be easy. These teams need to get their act together real quickly. One of them will take a step in the right direction this week, barring another tie.
Neither team has looked anything like their normal selves. Minnesota had the top ranked defense last season. One would have thought that would continue into 2018, considering they lost very little. However, the Vikings are allowing 11.7 points and 105.6 yards more than they were last year. Most of that has been due to a sharp decline in the secondary's performance. Mike Zimmer was asked about their passing defense. He responded, "Probably, anywhere I've ever been, I've never been this poor in pass coverage, so we're going to have to look at everything we're doing and get back to doing things correctly." If the secondary can regroup and find their groove again, this team will start winning. After all, the offense is doing just fine. The question is, can they really get back to their old form?
The Eagles' struggles can't be pinpointed quite like the Minnesota's. Pretty much everything is at least a little bit worse than last year. It makes me wonder, are they suffering from the "Super Bowl hangover", or was this team just a one-hit wonder? Both are entirely plausible, although I lean towards the former. One thing is for sure, this year's team isn't the same as last year's. Far from it.
It's impossible to know which team will get on track first, if either ever does at all. But I do believe Minnesota has a lot more to prove. Philly won their Super Bowl last year. If that's where the success ends for this group of players, at least they still made it on top once. The Vikings haven't won anything in a long, long time. They need to win with this core of players. They went all in on the next couple years when they signed Cousins. It could be a long road back if they fail. If this team really has anything in them, they'll right the ship quickly. Starting this Sunday.
Vikings win, 28-22
Raiders vs Chargers
Yet another pair of disappointments. Many people had one or the other winning the West this year. I myself had the Chargers winning the #1 seed. Yeah, I kinda miss-fired on that one. They're in an uphill battle for a wild card spot now. Because let's face it, neither of them are catching Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs.
The new Jon Gruden era of the Raiders is off to a rough start. They ran into a brick wall named the L.A. Rams in week 1, and they followed that up with two narrow losses to semi-decent teams. Gruden managed to claim his first win in his return to coaching against the Cleveland Browns in OT. This team is in rough shape, and it's hard for me to see them being very successful any time soon Derek Carr looks average right now. Lynch has been pretty good, but he's probably on his last legs. Worst of all, this defense is bad. If only they had a top tier pass rusher to give the defense some life...
The Chargers are a much more talented team. Rivers is still among the best passers in the game today. It's amazing he doesn't get more credit for what he's doing this late in his career. Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler have been a real solid backfield duo. And this defense has a ton of potential. However, this team just isn't producing. I think the fanbase, or lack there of, is a big contributor to that. It has to be discouraging to see a sea of your opponents colors in your own stadium. It's almost like they don't have a home game. I think this will be a particularly big problem this week. The Raiders have a big following in L.A., and it will show this Sunday.
Raiders win, 30-21
