Predicting the 2018 NFL Playoff Bracket
Believe it or not, football season is here. And with football season naturally come bold predictions and enticing debates. Today, I'm talking about the end game. I'm making my picks for the postseason lineup. That means all twelve teams and their seedings. We have a lot to cover here, so I'm just dive right in. Starting with the NFC.
NFC #1 Seed: L.A. Rams
The 2017 Rams shocked just about everyone when they pulled off 7-game improvement over their 2016 campaign. Sean McVay came right into L.A. as the youngest coach of the modern era, and he created one of the most electrifying offenses in the NFL. The defense wasn't half bad either. They had an early exit in January, but it was still an incredible turnaround.
That wasn't enough for the Rams. They had a busy offseason, in which they acquired Ndamukong Suh, Aqib Talib, and Marcus Peters. That defense is starting to look terrifying. This team could potentially be top 5 on both sides. That's just about a guarantee for a top seed.
However, as good as the off-season acquisitions make them, they could also be their downfall. I question how well they can hold up when they just added three of the more "colorful" personalities in the league. You probably remember the Bengals implosion in a 2016 AFC Wild Card Round. I worry this team could suffer a similar fate.
NFC #2 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles
I don't need to tell you about the talent of the defending Super Bowl Champions. They were the league's best last season, and they don't look any bit worse. The fact that I have them dropping one seed is strictly due to Rams increasing talent.
You would think, at the very least, we would have concerns about health, particularly at the QB position, that might make you hesitate on them. But we all saw Foles perform on the big stage, and the Eagles have good depth pretty much all around. There isn't any reason for them not to win their division, and they should get a bye.
NFC #3 Seed: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are littered with talent. First of all, they have the best defense in the NFL. No one allowed fewer yards or points than Minnesota in 2017. On the other side, they have arguably the best WR tandem in football in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. They also had a top 10 running game, and that was mostly without Dalvin Cook. On top of all that, they upgraded at the QB position when they added Kirk Cousins.
So you may ask, why #3? Well, although I do believe they upgraded at QB, I don't necessarily think switching QB's was the best for this team. Keenum did a good job with Minnesota. They knew they could win quite a few games with him. Some may say that Keenum couldn't take them to the next level, but to that I have to ask, will Cousins be that much better? The change could cost them a win or two early on due to any kinks they might have to work out. After that, it should be an improvement, but is the minor upgrade really worth the ridiculous contract?
This isn't to say that they aren't just as much of a threat as the teams ahead of them. I would put them on the same tier. I expect 11 or 12 wins from this team. Some years that could certainly result in a first round bye, but I'm not too sure it will this year.
NFC #4 Seed: New Orleans Saints
It's crazy to think that a team as good as the Saints could be a #4 seed. But that's just how good the NFC is right now. All the attention last year went to the Kamara and Ingram, the most incredible RB duo in football. You almost forgot that Drew Brees was the one giving them the ball sometimes. The Saints also seem to remember last year that defense was a thing, and they gave their offense much needed support. Their defense doesn't compare to a team like Minnesota, but it's the best defense they've had in years.
I would consider New Orleans to be my favorite to win the NFC. They might not have a roster as great as some others to get them through the regular season, but they have what they need for a playoff run. There are few things in the game more valuable than experience at QB and head coach. The Saints have that. It certainly doesn't hurt to have a surplus of young talent, which includes 2017's offensive AND defensive rookies of the year.
NFC #5 Seed: Green Bay Packers
The fate of this team lies solely on the shoulders of Aaron Rodgers, or more accurately, his collarbone. This team was certainly capable making the postseason if Rodgers would have stayed healthy. But as we saw, without him on the field, they really don't stand a chance. Landing a spot in the NFC playoff bracket is no easy task, but the Packers have a relatively smooth schedule. If Rodgers stays off IR, they can definitely pull off a wild card. Maybe even give Minnesota a hard time in the North.
Unfortunately for Green Bay, they likely won't have a legitimate shot a Super Bowl run even if they make it to January. There are just too many teams with much better rosters. Rodgers alone can only do so much.
NFC #6 Seed: Dallas Cowboys
This a big season for the Dallas Cowboys. With Prescott and Elliott both going into their 3rd season, we should find out what the two of them are really made of. Between the Elliott suspension, anthem controversies, and everything with Dez Bryant, off-field issues pretty much doomed the QB-RB tandem's sophomore year. Now it's time to move on and get back to work.
I believe the team's success will be dependent on how these young players can handle controversies such as the ones list above. Playing for the Cowboys is always an adventure. There is bound to be a spotlight and controversy around every corner. So far, I've been impressed with Prescott in this way. He doesn't appear susceptible to criticism. Which is good because there's been quite a bit of it between both his play and his stance on the anthem. He's not afraid to say or do what he believes is right, regardless of what backlash might come with it. That's what I want to see in a team leader.
This team has the talent. If they can ignore the noise and keep their eyes forward, they're gonna be dangerous.
AFC #1 Seed: L.A. Chargers
The Chargers have wasted many years of Philip Rivers' career by surrounding him with mediocrity. But as he approaches his final years, they seem to have finally figured it out.
The Chargers strength is in defense, which was relatively unnoticed by many in 2017. It was right up there with Minnesota and Jacksonville. The Chargers were 3rd in points and passing yards allowed and were t-5th in Sacks. The only need for improvement was their abysmal run defense, which ranked dead last in opponents yards per carry with a whopping 4.9 yards per touch. If they clean that up a little, this is an A+ defense.
While that defense was leading the team, Rivers quietly put up great numbers as well. Rivers was 2nd to Tom Brady in passing yards with 4,515, and he was t-5th in TD's with 28.
It is a wonder how this team didn't make the postseason last year. I expect a much better result this season. When you dominate the air on both sides of the ball, you should win A LOT of football games. The lack of ground control could bite them in January, but it could be a special regular season in Los Angeles.
AFC #2 Seed: New England Patriots
Yes, the Patriots are still here. They are just as good as always. I don't care what rumors are going around. I don't care how old Tom Brady is. The Patriots are still the team to beat in the AFC. As long as Belichick is on the sideline and Brady is under center, this team is here to stay. Brady hasn't even shown the slightest glimpse of a decline.
As you can see, I don't expect a top seed season from New England. However, they are easily my top choice to win the AFC. Beating the Patriots in the regular season is a whole lot different than beating them in the playoffs.
AFC #3 Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers
On paper, the Steelers should be a great football team. Pittsburgh is primarily led by "The Killer B's". Ben Roethlisberger appears to be on the road to the Hall of Fame, and Brown and Bell might not be far behind if things keep going the way they are. This defense is also better than many realize. It isn't quite the same as the Steelers' defense we watched win a Super Bowl a decade ago, but they get the job done. I also really like Mike Tomlin as their coach.
So why do I say, "Good on paper"? Well, for some reason, their locker room seems to be a major issue. The team cannot stay consistent, especially when controversy comes there way. And with Mason Rudolph drafted a few months ago and Le'veon Bell holding out, I question how well they can hold up.
However, I still think they can take the North and get a decent seed. That's simply due to lack of competition. If this team played in the NFC, I don't think I'd give them a spot.
AFC #4 Seed: Houston Texans
The Texans' 2017 campaign was ruined by the injury bug. If they could have avoided Watson and Watt's injuries, let alone all the others, they had a real shot at the postseason. Deshaun Watson appeared to be well on his way to an OROY award before a torn ACL sidelined him after just five games. And J.J. Watt, well, we know just how incredible he is, and how much his absence hurts this team.
If they can avoid those crucial injuries this year, they could be a legitimate contender. No QB wants to look up and see Watt, Clowney, and Mercilus coming after them. And if the QB can get the ball out of their hands, they have Johnathan Joseph on their #1 WR and Tyrann Mathieu roaming defensive backfield. This is a QB's worst nightmare.
But the scariest part of this team is the fact they actually have offensive potential for once. Houston has had defense for years, but they haven't had a QB to run the show. Now they do. And he has weapons. Now they just need to stay off of IR.
AFC #5 Seed: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens were oh so close to a playoff birth last season. All they needed to do was beat the Bengals in week 17. Even if they lost, they could get in with a Buffalo loss. But as we know, Buffalo won, Baltimore lost, and we had to watch the Bills play in the playoffs instead.
Baltimore just needs a little something extra this season to put them over the edge. I believe they got that little something in the draft. Lamar Jackson. But I don't believe Jackson will actually see the field this year. The rookie will help this team simply by putting pressure on Joe Flacco. Clearly Flacco needs something to push him. You might remember back in 2012 when he had a career year, which just so happened to be in his contract year. I believe putting a hot shot rookie behind could have a similar effect.
A good year from Flacco combined with this defense should be enough for a spot in the AFC bracket.
AFC #6 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs made a bold decision by trading Alex Smith to Washington, and thereby giving the keys to the 22-year-old Patrick Mahomes, who's yet to start an NFL game. This was an attempt to give them the little something extra that they need to get to the next level. It's scary to imagine the damage he could cause with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to throw to and Kareem Hunt in the backfield. Of course, we don't know what they really have in Mahomes, and even if he's the real deal, it could take a few games to work out the kinks. But all in all, I think this offense will give the toughest defenses trouble once they hit their stride.
Kansas City's defense has dropped off in the past couple years, but they aren't a burden. They'll get some takeaways and stop enough drives to keep them in the game.
Come playoff time, assuming they do make it that far, they could be really hit or miss. They could go haywire and make a deep run, or their inexperience could result in the same early exit that they've become accustomed to. But one things for sure, Chiefs fans are in for a wild ride.
