Games To Watch: Week 4

I give North Texas special teams a lot of credit for practicing this play. If Arkansas wasn’t already thrown off by their bad start, that basically is the cherry on top. Speaking of bad starts, most of the new coaches continue to have a hard time trying to get their program going but give them a break. You can’t expect them to just magically get good. It comes down to who’s bought in to the new coaching staff and who’s not. On the opposite end, Cincinnati, Boston College, Syracuse and Indiana are 3-0 for the 1st time in a little while. Minnesota is 3-0 for the 2nd time and are 6-0 against non-conference foes since P.J. Fleck became coach. North Texas is 3-0 for the first time since 1966 and 1st time in FBS. Buffalo is 3-0 for the first time in FBS history. BYU is ranked for the 1st time since 2015. California may make a run to about 6-7 wins before late October and Hawai’i could be dangerous in the West division of the Mountain West. Lastly, is Kansas…good??? They lead the nation in turnovers…but I’m somehow not sold on them. The Top 5 Games To Watch features plenty of potential upsets, including a Pac-12 matchup that could be battling for the North spot with Washington.
UPSET) ROAD GAMES FOR #10 PENN STATE (3-0) (FRIDAY) AND #24 MICHIGAN STATE (1-1) (SATURDAY)

For the 2nd time this season, I’m putting Michigan State and Penn State on upset alert. I’m iffy with choosing Penn State but when they played in Champagne two seasons ago, they lost. Illinois’ four wins in Champagne were by a touchdown or less. They’re also first in the Big Ten in interceptions (6). Their biggest challenge is stopping the best quarterback in the Big Ten in Trace McSorley. I doubt Illinois will slow down Penn State’s offense, but if they have as much heart and fight like Iowa, they’ll have their fans back in trying to do what Appalachian State almost did three weeks ago.
Michigan State is a simpler pick for an upset. Let’s be honest, they haven’t been that great. The offense at times were iffy and don’t let the 38 points against Utah State deceive you. There were times where Lewerke was indecisive with his throws. There were times to where the receivers weren’t following through. The running backs had a hard time breaking for more yardage due to the offensive lines inconsistencies. The defense was ebb and flow too. How they gave up 31 points against Utah State is beyond me. That’s why Arizona State had leverage over them 2 weeks ago. Hopefully the bye week did them some good to fix those issues because Indiana will be a tough matchup for them. Even though Michigan State won 6 of the last 7 games, the last two games were close.
4) #14 MISSISSIPPI STATE (3-0 OVERALL) AT KENTUCKY (3-0 OVERALL) - 4PM PT/7PM ET [ESPN]

Kentucky running back Benny Snell Jr. said he’s the best running back in the SEC and he can run on any defense. It’s possible. They’re home against Mississippi State and Kentucky is 14-9 against them and Mississippi State at times have struggled there. After upsetting Florida after losing the last 31 games to them, they should feel very confident. But let’s go back to them playing Mississippi State. Kentucky doesn’t have a true quarterback. The only offense they have is Benny Snell and the running game. Even though Florida was their true road game, they did give up 20 points against Central Michigan. Despite having experience defensive players, the statistics aren’t too good. Mississippi State has quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, a good run game and offensive line. Their defense has 10 sacks this season and hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown either. The Cats’ opportunity of upsetting Mississippi State comes from getting a rushing touchdown, getting the passing game going, the defense finding ways to get after the backfield and shutdown Nick. If the game is close, the Wildcats have the edge in field goal kicking. Mississippi State’s kicker is 1 of 3 this season.
3) FAU (2-1 OVERALL) AT #16 UCF (2-0 OVERALL) - 4PM PT/7PM ET [ESPN] (FRIDAY)

This game features two teams that are only 3 hours apart from each other and will be meeting for the 2nd time ever. FAU coach Lane Kiffin goes up against UCF’s head coach Josh Heupel and both run a pretty lethal offense. There’s plenty of passing, but don’t count out FAU running back Devin Singletary leading the running unit against UCF’s triple threat: Adrian Killins, Darriel Mack, and Greg McCrae. Despite the hurricane cancelling UCF’s game last week, they haven’t allowed 20 points this season. FAU’s defense struggled to stop Oklahoma’s offense, led by Kyler Murray. Trying to stop UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton will be a similar daunting task. If the defense fails to step up, the offense must keep up with UCF to even have a slight chance at an upset over a ranked team.
2) #18 WISCONSIN (2-1 OVERALL) AT IOWA (3-0 OVERALL) - 5:30PM PT/8:30PM ET [FOX]

Wisconsin won four of five games against Iowa, but this Badgers squad looked off last week. Their defense had to replace starters and were also beat up by injuries. BYU running back Squally Canada managed to run 100+ yards on them too. Losing to BYU was a huge blow to the Badgers’ playoff opportunity and going to Iowa City won’t help their situation. This should be a tough matchup featuring Wisconsin’s offensive line and Iowa’s defensive line. Iowa hasn’t allowed 20 points this season and they’re 2nd in the nation in total defense (209 yards allowed per game). They’re also tied 2nd against the rush, which should be a positive knowing that they’re dealing with Jonathan Taylor again. Iowa is 3rd in the nation in sacks, led by defensive lineman A.J. Epenesa (12 total tackles, four sacks, four tackles for losses, and two forced fumbles). Even though Running back Jonathan Taylor (515 rushing yards) may have nearly as many rushing yards as Iowa’s rushing total (521), he can’t do this all on his own. Wisconsin must find ways to make big plays downfield because Iowa won’t make it easy for them to move the ball. Wisconsin’s second loss eliminates them from playoff contention and opens things up for the Big Ten West.
1) #7 STANFORD (3-0 OVERALL) AT #20 OREGON (3-0 OVERALL) 5PM PT/8PM ET [ABC]

Oregon won 11 of 16 meetings, but Stanford won 4 of the last 6, including 2 straight and outscoring them 101-34. There’s plenty of similarities in this matchup. Both allowed 100-yard rushers in their 1st game, but then made sure it never happened again in the next two. Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert has been electric when healthy while Stanford quarterback KJ Costello can lead the offense alongside Bryce Love. Now here’s the difference: Bryce Love is the leading back (165 rushing yards) while Oregon has a stable of running backs in CJ Verdell (199 rushing yards), Tony Brooks-James (173 rushing yards), and Travis Dye (122 rushing yards). Stanford leads the nation in points allowed (7.7 points allowed per game) while Oregon leads the Pac-12 in scoring (51.7 points per game), in rushing (214 per game), and is 2nd in total offense (503 per game). The winner of this game will challenge Washington for the possible top spot in the Pac-12 North.
UNDERRATED PICK RESULTS FROM WEEK 3: 40-22
AAC: 1-1
ACC: 2-0
BIG 12: 2-0
BIG TEN: 0-1
C-USA: 2-0
INDEPENDENT: 0-1
MAC: 2-0
MWC: 1-1
PAC-12: 2-0
SEC: 1-1
SUN BELT: 1-1
GOOD WIN: TEMPLE, SYRACUSE, TEXAS, ARKANSAS STATE
BAD LOSS: NORTHWESTERN, BOISE STATE