Games To Watch: Week 6
UPSET) TULANE (2-3 OVERALL; 1-0 AAC) AT CINCINNATI (5-0 OVERALL; 1-0 AAC) - 9AM PT/ 12PM ET [ESPNU]
This upset doesn’t seem important, but Cincinnati is gunning for the Top 25 for the 1st time since 2012 when the Big East still existed. They could also remain undefeated before NOVEMBER. The success comes from their defense led by defensive lineman Cortez Broughton (8.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, and one forced fumble). They’re 2nd in the NCAA in points allowed (12.2) behind Washington, 9th in pass defense (158.8), 6th in total yards allowed (273) and tied 4th in points allowed in total (61). They’re right in the thick of the division with UCF and USF.
So why the upset? Discount the 2-3 record by Tulane. If you’ve watched them, they’re competitive. They nearly upset Wake Forest and managed a big win over Memphis last week. Their defense has a bend, but don’t break mentality. The defensive line can disrupt the passing game led by rising defensive lineman Cameron Sample. Although, the pass defense is a weak spot and big plays hurt them. Despite being 5-21 on the road since joining the AAC, they are competitive and it’s showing some growth. If their defense can make Cincinnati’s young offense struggle, the Green Wave’s run game will wear them down. It’s their strength and it will get the job done.
4) FRESNO STATE (3-1 OVERALL; 0-0 MWC) AT NEVADA (3-2 OVERALL; 1-0 MWC) - 7:30PM PT/ 10:30PM ET [ESPNU]
It’s rare to put Fresno State and my Alma Mater Nevada on the Games to Watch list, but it’s for good reason. The Air Raid offense is strong and lethal, thanks to coach Jay Norvell, quarterback Ty Gangi, and running back Toa Taua. However, Gangi will not be available this weekend due to a leg injury, but everyone seems to have faith in backup quarterback Christian Solano. The receivers are talented and have potential to be the best group in the future. McLane Mannix and Kaleb Fossum lead the receivers with 399 yards each, but Mannix has five touchdowns. For the 2nd straight season, the Bulldogs have a strong defense with similar stats (18.8 points allowed/game). That helped them to a 10-win season including a divisional title and a bowl win. The offense has back Marcus McMaryion, Jordan Mims, Josh Hokit, and leading receiver Keesean Johnson, who improved Fresno State’s points to 45 per game (27.1 pts/g in 2017). Fresno State won four of their last 6 meetings when DeRuyter became their coach for four seasons in 2012. Nevada’s offense and Fresno State’s defense are the focus of the game, but the Wolfpack need better all-around play from their defense to have a shot at a home win. The winner is in a race with Hawai’i for the West division.
3) #6 NOTRE DAME (5-0 OVERALL) AT #24 VIRGINIA TECH (3-1 OVERALL) - 5PM PT/ 8PM ET [ABC]
Notre Dame’s true road test comes in Blacksburg. Quarterback Ian Book may be the new chapter for the offense and throwing nearly 300 yards on Stanford’s defense was a big example. Notre Dame’s defense also allowed three points in the 2nd half. Virginia Tech came off an embarrassing loss against former winless Old Dominion, only to go on the road and down former ranked Duke. The Hokies’ backup quarterback Ryan Willis has quality and experience, and that builds confidence in their offense.
Now Virginia Tech hasn’t been successful against ranked teams since 2011. They’re 3-14 and it puts them in danger of being out of the rankings again. They also haven’t lost to a non-conference opponent at home since 2015 against Ohio State. Discount the 49 points the Hokies gave up two weeks ago. Half came from turnovers and 4th quarter mistakes. Their rushing defense is tied 5th in total rush yards allowed and rush yards allowed per game. It should come in handy but containing Ian Book is the next step. Virginia Tech’s win likely boots Notre Dame out of the playoff race, but Notre Dame’s big road win sets themselves up for an easy ride through their last six games. But they will need some help and chaos to control their own destiny.
2) #5 LSU (5-0 OVERALL; 2-0 SEC) AT #22 FLORIDA (4-1 OVERALL; 2-1 SEC) - 12:30PM PT/ 3:30PM ET [CBS]
Even though coach Dan Mullen moved back to the SEC East, he can’t avoid LSU. He’s 1-7 all-time against LSU. However, Ed Orgeron is 0-1 against Florida when he coached at Ole Miss in 2007. For the first time in a few years, LSU and Florida probably found their quarterback that play consistently. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow hasn’t thrown an interception yet and Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks is slowly improving while Florida’s offensive stats are going up.
Since Tim Tebow left for the NFL, Florida has won only two games in the last eight meetings. The last four games were also decided by a touchdown or less. While both teams have similar offensive and defensive stats, LSU allows more passing yards while Florida allows more rushing yards. This will be a true test for both teams to see if either or both can prove to be a challenge against their top SEC division counterparts (Georgia and Alabama). Florida’s loss eliminates them from playoff contention.
1) #19 TEXAS (4-1 OVERALL; 2-0 BIG 12) VS #7 OKLAHOMA (5-0 OVERALL; 2-0 BIG 12) - 9AM PT/ 12PM ET [FOX]
I’m not biased, but I feel that this is the best game to watch this weekend, and I look forward to watching it. It has been six years since both teams met while ranked, and this will also be the 39th time that this matchup features both teams ranked.
While Oklahoma’s offense fired on all cylinders with Kyler Murray at the helm, Texas’ defense proved to be an issue for Big 12 offenses. They’re slowly improving their program, but flaws come from their offense. However, quarterback Sam Ehlinger may be the Guy that Texas was looking for since Colt McCoy left. That could work to their advantage against Oklahoma’s defense that has been about as subpar as they come.
The Sooners offense is as good as it has been. Fans, don’t worry about Mayfield not being there anymore. Kyler Murray is as good as this offense gets. He accounts for most of the offensive yards and touchdowns. The offense is as lethal as last years, but the defense continue to be an issue for the past few years. The missed tackles and allowing big plays are major issues. This could become a problem when they deal with Sam Ehlinger and the receivers once again.
While Texas has an overall better record in this matchup, Oklahoma won six of the last eight meetings. The last four games were decided by a touchdown or less. In that span, Oklahoma worked with only two starting quarterbacks while Texas worked with four starting quarterbacks, but Sam Ehlinger will make his second straight start in the Red River Rivalry. Last year, Texas nearly came away with a big upset because of Ehlinger’s instant spark on the offense. The winner of this matchup will be in the Top 2 Big 12 race with West Virginia.
UNDERRATED TEAM RESULTS FROM WEEK 5: 60-39
AAC: 1-1
ACC: 0-2
BIG TEN: 1-1
BIG 12: 2-0
C-USA: 1-1
INDEPENDENT: 0-1
MAC: 1-1
MWC: 1-0
PAC-12: 1-1
SEC: 1-0
SUN BELT: 0-2
GOOD WIN: TULANE, WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, OREGON
BAD LOSS: DUKE, FAU, BUFFALO, UL MONROE
