AFC Championship Preview and Prediction
It’s the quarterback matchup that football fans dream of, with 4 time super bowl winner Tom Brady taking on 2 time super bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger battling for the AFC championship. These two were set to go head to head in the regular season, but that was derailed by a Ben injury that forced him to sit out. Backup Landry Jones hung in there as well as he could, but Brady and the Patriots were simply too much and won 27-16. Last time it was in Pittsburgh, this time the game is in Foxborough. Let’s take a look at the keys to victory for each team and our prediction.
Steelers:
1) Control the tempo of the game- The Steelers have been masterful at playing at their preferred pace by having superstar running back Le’Veon Bell pound the rock. Bell has been racking up a ton of yards and having his way with opposing defenses. The best way to beat Tom Brady is to keep him on the sideline and keep your own defense fresh. The Patriots have not allowed a 90-yard rusher in 24 games. Something has to give, and if the Steelers have their way it will be a long day for the Patriots.
2) Get after Tom Brady- the Steelers have a young an inexperienced secondary that could be easily exposed by one of the all-time greats, but fortunately they have a very strong front seven. Brady only had 227 yards in the last matchup, but that had to do more with the style of the game than Brady struggling. He was able to take whatever he wanted, he just only had 26 pass attempts which kept his counting numbers down. The Steelers have been one of the best at sacking the quarterback during their 9-game winning streak, and if they are going to continue that streak they are going to need to make Brady uncomfortable. If he has too much time to throw, he will expose the secondary.
3) Win the turnover battle- The Steelers won the turnover battle last time around, but they were unable to take advantage. Part of the reason for that was they weren’t able to take advantage offensively. This time, if the Steelers are going to be successful they need to win the turnover battle and they need to score off any turnovers they manage to force. Brady only has 4 interceptions on the season when you include the postseason, so interceptions may be hard to come by, but they managed two forced fumbles last time. A similar result this time around may mean more success for Pittsburgh.
Patriots:
1) Keep Tom Brady clean- As mentioned above, if Brady has time to throw he will carve up the Steelers secondary. The Pats offensive line must have a big game because they have their hands full with the Steelers pass rush. If he is kept standing, he will have his way with the Steelers defense, but if he is running for his life it could be a long day on offense.
2) Take away Bell- The Pats have not allowed a 90-yard rusher in 24 games, and if they keep Bell under 90 yards again in this game that drastically increases their chances to win. The thing about Bell though, you don’t stop him just by taking away the run. Bell is one of the best running backs in the league at splitting out wide and exploiting matchups against linebackers and safeties. If the Steelers can’t get going on the ground, look for them to manufacture yards by getting Bell going in the pass game. Safety Devin McCourty will play a critical role in stopping Bell if Bell splits out wide often, and he will need to be up to the task.
3) Bend but don’t break- The Patriots had the top scoring defense in the NFL this season, but by no means does that mean they are the best or most talented defense in the league. They do an extremely good job of complimenting the offense while playing a bend but don’t break style on defense. Sound familiar? The Chiefs just forced the Steelers into 6 field goals and an interception on 7 trips inside the 25-yard line last week. Unfortunately for KC, they couldn’t take advantage offensively. If the Steelers can’t manage to put the ball in the end zone this week, the Pats offense will be able to capitalize in ways KC couldn’t. If the Pats can keep the Steelers out of the end zone again this week, they will win.
Prediction: This game feels a heck of a lot like the game against KC last week. It should be another great game, and will most likely be very close. Both quarterbacks are as good as any at doing whatever they need to do to will their team to victory. This one is sure to be at the maximum level of intensity and emotion. It’s an extremely tough game to pick. The brain is saying go with New England while the gut is saying to go with Pittsburgh. They say you shouldn’t go against your gut right? Let’s hope we don’t regret it this time.
Final Score: New England 23 Pittsburgh 21
That leaves us with a super bowl prediction of New England against Atlanta. Who do you think is going to win this weekend? Comment and let us know! Stay tuned for more current sports stories. Don't forget to follow us on social media. You can find us on Facebook, Instagram @beyondthemetrics, and Twitter @byondthemetrics