March Madness Upset Alert Special

We see it every year. We know there is going to be a number of upsets in the March Madness tournament. Everybody will so confidently fill out a bracket, just to see it destroyed by unexpected upsets in the first few days. That’s why we’re here to give you an upset alert special post. By no means should this be taken as a guarantee that these upsets will occur, we just want to advise of some of the more likely upsets. Undoubtedly, there will also be upsets that don’t make this list. There is just no way to predict all the madness.

For the purposes of our list, we will not review 8 vs 9 matchups because they can hardly be considered an upset one way or another. We will only include seeds 10 or lower with a good chance of winning. That said, let’s take a look at what we believe are the five most likely upsets.

South Carolina (7) vs Marquette (10)

South Carolina is a very top heavy team with only 4 guys averaging over 6 points per game, while Marquette is much deeper and has 7 guys averaging over 8 per game. Add in the fact that Marquette has some very impressive wins on the resume over top seed Villanova and Creighton, and it is easy to see how they can take down South Carolina. If they can keep Thornwell in check, it may be one and done for the Gamecocks.

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Maryland (6) vs Xavier (11)

Xavier has a very potent big 3 in Bluiett, Sumner, and Macura, combining to average nearly 50 points per game, while Maryland relies mostly on Trimble followed by a committee. The gameplan for Xavier has to be to keep Trimble in check and make the other guys beat you. If they can hold Trimble to his average of 17 points per game or less, this game may favor Xavier. Maryland has the better resume of wins and losses, but they also stumbled into the tournament going 4-6 in their last 10 games after starting 20-2.

Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Creighton (6) vs Rhode Island (11)

Creighton should have an edge in talent and have a deep enough team that if one man is cold the rest can make up for it, but them being on upset alert is more for us about who’s hot and who’s not. Rhode Island comes in winners of 14 of their last 17 games heading into the tournament, while Creighton started off the season red hot at 18-1, before falling apart and going 7-8 in their last 15 games. Rhode Island very well may be catching Creighton at just the right time to keep their hot streak going.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota (5) vs Middle Tennessee (12)

Middle Tennessee is easily the more top heavy team, relying mostly on 3 players in Williams, Potts, and Upshaw to carry the team, while Minnesota gets key contributions going 7 or 8 deep. Middle Tennessee also comes from a weak conference with a weak schedule, while Minnesota has faced tougher opponents. The thing is, Minnesota for the most part has lost to those tougher opponents, struggling to beat anyone in the top 25 all season, going 1-4 in such games. Middle Tennessee gets the perfect chance to prove there are stronger than their weak schedule indicates.

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Dayton (7) vs Wichita State (10)

This one will almost feel like an upset if Dayton wins. No disrespect to Dayton, they are a quality team, but Wichita State certainly feels like the better team. Wichita State is perhaps the deepest team in the tournament, and regularly play a 10 man rotation. They come in red hot, winner of 15 straight, while Dayton lost their last 2 coming into the tournament. The only reason to pump the brakes on Wichita State in this matchup is the fact that they had a weak schedule and 2 of their 4 losses came in their only 2 games verses ranked opponents. At the same time, Dayton went 0-1 versus top 25 opponents and hardly faced a much tougher schedule.

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

We know what you’re thinking, 5’s, 6’s, and 7’s win every year, you guys didn’t pick anyone higher than a 5 to lose! We know, but the fact is the top 4 seeds in each bracket this year are very strong and it would seem even more unlikely than usual to see one of those 16 teams go down in the first round, BUT, if we had to pick one:

Florida State (3) vs Florida Gulf Coast (14)

Florida State falls in to a similar trap as some other teams on this list, as they can only count on 4 guys to do any type of scoring. Florida Gulf Coast is a much more balanced offensive attack, having 4 guys averaging in double figured and two others who are easily capable provided they play enough minutes. Florida State played big time versus top opponents, going 7-3 in games versus teams ranked in the top 25, while Florida Gulf Coast played a much weaker schedule and only went 0-1 in games versus top 25 teams. Florida Gulf Coast comes in hot, winners of 16 of their last 18, while Florida State fell off a bit down the stretch finishing 9-7 in their last 16 after starting the season 16-1. This one is all about balance, and who’s hot coming in. Florida State should win, but if one or two of their top four scorers is a little off the mark, Florida Gulf Coast could definitely pull the upset.

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Who is everyone's picks for upsets this year? Who do you think is most likely to make a Cinderella run? Comment and let us know! We'll keep you posted on the March Madness tournament as more unfolds. We will also be posting our official picks so everyone gets to laugh at how messed up our bracket is after the first couple days. Stay tuned for more current sports stories. Don't forget to follow us on social media. You can find us on Facebook, Instagram @beyondthemetrics, and Twitter @byondthemetrics