National League Central Preview

Today we have the 4th in our series of baseball posts coming up, this time featuring the National League Central. I apologize for posting this preview a day later than promised, I broke a finger this weekend which resulted in time spent in doctor's offices rather than putting together this preview. Opening day is Sunday April 2, so it will be here before you know it! We have a schedule of posts set up so you can follow. All links to previous posts in the baseball series will be posted at the bottom of this post.

AL West: Friday March 10:

NL West: Sunday March 12

AL Central: Friday March 17

NL Central: Sunday March 19 (UPDATE: Monday, March 20)

AL East: Friday March 24

NL East: Sunday March 26

Preseason Award Favorites: Friday March 31

Way Too Early Postseason Predictions: Sunday April 2

For each team, there will be a quick review of last year, key additions and subtractions, possible impact in 2017 by prospects, and an outlook and prediction for 2017. For the additions and subtractions, we will simply be naming the guys who can make an impact. The guys who are last on the bench or last in the bullpen may be left out. The additions and subtractions will also be limited to guys added or lost in the offseason. Guys who came or went at the trade deadline last year were an addition or subtraction for last year, not so much for this year coming up (Example, Andrew Miller will not be a subtraction for the Yankees. Aroldis Chapman will be a subtraction for the Cubs). That said, let’s dig in to the NL Central:

Chicago Cubs: Last Year 103-58 (1st in NL Central)

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

2016 Review: 2016 was the best season for the Cubs in over 100 years, as their rebuild finally came to fruition and they won the World Series. This should just be just the beginning of a run of sustained success for the Cubs, as almost all their top players are extremely young. Kris Bryant inserted his name into the conversation for best player not named Mike Trout, while other guys like Addison Russell and Javier Baez played at or near an all-star level at a very young age. 

Key Additions: Brett Anderson, Koji Uehara, Jon Jay, Wade Davis

Key Subtractions: Dexter Fowler, Jorge Soler, David Ross, Aroldis Chapman, Trevor Cahill, Travis Wood, Jason Hammel

Possible Rookies to Watch: Albert Almora, Jeimer Candelario

2017 Outlook: Losing Dexter Fowler is a big loss because it seemed whenever he scored, the Cubs win. They will look to replace him with Jon Jay and Albert Almora. Chapman is a big loss after paying dearly for him at the trade deadline, but getting Wade Davis as a replacement certainly lessens the blow. Koji Uehara is another nice addition to the bullpen. Kyle Schwarber will be back healthy this season, adding even more punch to the middle of the lineup.

As far as rookies are concerned, Almora could have a sizable role this year as a replacement for Fowler. Candelario is MLB ready, but is blocked by star players, so it would take a major injury to see him in an extended role.

2016 was just the beginning for these Cubbies. They are probably still the best team in baseball with still a good amount of talent in the minors. Look for them to be back as serious contenders this year.

2017 Prediction: 102-60

St. Louis Cardinals: Last Year 86-76 (2nd in NL Central)

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

2016 Review: The Cardinals had a bit of a disappointing 2016 after being on top of the NL for several years. They didn’t even come close to competing with the Cubs. They were a good not great team that left several holes unaddressed, assuming they were good enough to make up for them. Turns out they were good enough, and turned into wild card contenders instead of World Series contenders.

Key Additions: Dexter Fowler, Brett Cecil

Key Subtractions: Jaime Garcia, Matt Holiday, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Brandon Moss, Seth Maness

Possible Rookies to Watch: Luke Weaver, Alex Reyes*

*Alex Reyes would be a front runner for rookie of the year as a starting pitcher, but will miss all of 2017 because of Tommy John surgery.

2017 Outlook: The Cardinals made some moves to address some needs on their roster by signing Fowler and Cecil. Fowler is a clear upgrade over Jon Jay, and Cecil adds depth to the bullpen. They’ll be looking for guys like Kolten Wong to bounce back in 2017 in order to better compete with the Cubs.

Having Alex Reyes for the entire season would have been a big boost to the rotation, which now leaves a hole on the roster. Luke Weaver may get an opportunity to step into the rotation at some point to try to fill the void. The farm system is deep, but not with many more guys that will make an impact in 2017.

The Cardinals seemed to be making positive moves in the offseason but the Reyes injury is a big shot to their 2017 hopes. They’ll still be in contention in September and will be a tough out, but they don’t have the feel of a serious World Series contender this year.

2017 Prediction: 88-74

Pittsburgh Pirates: Last Year 78-83 (3rd in NL Central)

Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

2016 Review: 2016 was a massively disappointing season for the Bucs. They came in with World Series ambitions but by the trade deadline they had become sellers. Gerrit Cole was injured and missed a bunch of starts, and even when he was around he wasn’t the same as 2015. Andrew McCutchen had an unprecedented regression in 2016, dropping from MVP contender to replacement level player in one year. Some of the youngsters had solid years but not great. Overall, 2016 backed Pittsburgh up a few years in their quest to make the World Series.

Key Additions: Daniel Hudson

Key Subtractions: Sean Rodriguez, Matt Joyce, Neftali Feliz, Ryan Vogelsong, Jeff Locke, Jonathon Neise

Possible Rookies to Watch: Dovydas Neverauskas, Steven Brault, Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, Josh Bell

2017 Outlook: The Pirates in 2017 almost have the same kind of feel as the Yankees of 2017: they will be a decent team that won’t be capable of a World Series run, but have a world of talent coming through the pipeline soon. Not to worry Pittsburgh fans, they will be back in contention sooner rather than later, but 2017 doesn’t feel like the year. One thing to keep an eye on in 2017 is if they shop Andrew McCutchen at the trade deadline to further bolster their farm while opening up a spot for prized prospect Austin Meadows. They are likely going to be a wait and see kind of team before they decide whether they’ll be buying or selling at the trade deadline. McCutchen will be making a move to right field, opening center field for Starling Marte.

As mentioned above, the Pirates have a world of talent coming soon. They own five of the top 30-40 prospects in all of baseball and several others that are either top 100, or close to the top 100. Glasnow could find himself in the rotation this year after getting his first taste last year, and Josh Bell could play a prominent role after playing reasonably well in the big leagues late last year. Meadows will likely only make an impact if there is an injury or trade, but if there is either of those, keep an eye on this kid because he’s one of the best prospects out there. Brault and Neverauskas at this point would likely only be depth additions to the team.

The Pirates right now are in a sort of competitive rebuild. They trimmed some of the older players from the roster to open up spots for youngsters, while keeping in tact their core of players. They’ll be competitive this year but likely won’t go deep into October. A bounce back year from McCutchen and Cole could be all they need to make a reasonable run at a wild card spot.

2017 Prediction: 85-77

Milwaukee Brewers: Last Year 73-89 (4th in NL Central)

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

2016 Review: The Brewers were mildly competitive last year. They weren’t a free win for the opposing team, but more times than not they were still going to lose the series. They finally fully committed to rebuilding and bringing in more young talent when they let Johnathon Lucroy go at the trade deadline. It took a while, but they finally realized being a 70-75 win team is probably the worst situation to stay in when trying to build a contender.

Key Additions: No key additions for 2017

Key Subtractions: Chris Carter, Martin Maldonado, Tyler Thornburg, Blaine Boyer

Possible Rookies to Watch: Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, Michael Reed

2017 Outlook: While the Brewers were mildly competitive last year, expect them to take a step back in 2017 as they finally commit to a rebuild. They may not be as bad as teams such as the Twins, but the real focus this year is going to be on developing their young players. The Brewers also have a ton of talent coming through their system, with as many top 100 prospects as any other team in baseball.

While the Brewers didn’t go an add any veteran free agents, they let some go, which will open up holes for several rookies to try to prove themselves. Phillips and Reed will both have the opportunity to make the big-league roster as a potential 4th outfielder for now, while Hader and Woodruff will be looking for a spot at the back end of the rotation. Lopez could find himself in the bullpen at some point as a long relief type of pitcher. Hader and Woodruff are both top 100 guys, so it will be a great opportunity for one or the other or possibly both to showcase their talent this season.

The Brewers will not be good this year, but they have a lot to look forward to in coming years with eight top 100 prospects. If only half of those guys hit on their potential, they’ll still have a nice influx of good young talent. This year will be about getting some of those guys an opportunity.

2017 Prediction: 66-96

Cincinnati Reds: Last Year 68-94 (Last in NL Central)

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

2016 Review: There’s not much positive to say about the Reds in 2016. They just flat out stunk and didn’t have a ton to look forward to with an aging roster and not a ton of young talent coming up. They sold Chapman to the Yankees for pennies on the dollar, but hung on to other potential trade bait until finally selling Jay Bruce at the trade deadline. The selling of Jay Bruce finally signaled what was way overdue, which is the Reds fully committing to their imminent rebuild.

Key Additions: Ryan Raburn, Scott Feldman, Drew Storen

Key Subtractions: Brandon Phillips, Ramon Cabrera, Dan Straily

Possible Rookies to Watch: Robert Stephenson, Nick Senzel

2017 Outlook: While the Reds are finally tearing it down to rebuild, they have made some questionable moves in doing so. They sold Chapman for a box of sunflower seeds, Bruce for okay but not that good prospects, and sold Brandon Phillips about two years too late when his value was watered down to almost nothing. That said, the Reds do have a pretty good farm system, but not much that should be expected to make an impact this season.

Stephenson could find himself in the rotation at some point this season. It may be a bit of a reach for Senzel to make the big leagues this year, but he’s the type of player expected to fly through the minors because of his advanced college career. He is more likely a prime candidate for 2018 rookie of the year (possibly against Alex Reyes?)

This year for the Reds will be much like the Brewers. It will be all about developing young players. They’ll be looking for a few young players such as Jose Pereza, Eugenio Suarez, and Adam Duvall to take a step forward this year to prove they are three guys worth keeping in their lineup for the long haul. The same applies to Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan in their starting rotation. This may very well be the last of the bottom out years before starting to move up in the standings.

2017 Prediction: 66-96

In summary, the projected standings for the NL Central this year are as follows:

Cubs 102-60

Cardinals 88-74

Pirates 85-77

Brewers 66-96

Reds 66-96

That’s a wrap on the NL Central. What do you think? Who is going to win the division? Who is the one addition or subtraction that will make the biggest difference? Who is the top rookie to watch in the division? Comment and let us know! Stay tuned for more current sports stories. Don't forget to follow us on social media. You can find us on Facebook, Instagram @beyondthemetrics, and Twitter @byondthemetrics

Check out our other baseball previews: