American League East Preview

Today we have the 5th in our series of baseball posts coming up, this time featuring the American League East. Opening day is Sunday April 2, so it will be here before you know it! We have a schedule of posts set up so you can follow. All links to previous posts in the baseball series will be posted at the bottom of this post.

AL West: Friday March 10:

NL West: Sunday March 12

AL Central: Friday March 17

NL Central: Sunday March 19 (UPDATE: Monday, March 20)

AL East: Friday March 24

NL East: Sunday March 26

Preseason Award Favorites: Friday March 31

Way Too Early Postseason Predictions: Sunday April 2

For each team, there will be a quick review of last year, key additions and subtractions, possible impact in 2017 by prospects, and an outlook and prediction for 2017. For the additions and subtractions, we will simply be naming the guys who can make an impact. The guys who are last on the bench or last in the bullpen may be left out. The additions and subtractions will also be limited to guys added or lost in the offseason. Guys who came or went at the trade deadline last year were an addition or subtraction for last year, not so much for this year coming up (Example, Andrew Miller will not be a subtraction for the Yankees. Aroldis Chapman will be a subtraction for the Cubs). That said, let’s dig in to the AL East.

Boston Red Sox: Last Year 93-69 (1st in AL East)

MLB: Spring Training-Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

2016 Review: 2016 was the year the Red Sox saw breakout seasons from a number of core young players. Mookie Betts established himself as one of the best two way players in the game, Xander Bogaerts had a big year at the plate, Andrew Benintendi broke onto the scene late, and Big Papi had a nearly flawless farewell tour. Setting aside a disappointing season by David Price, and it was overall a great year until they ultimately came up short in October.

Key Additions: Mitch Moreland, Chris Sale

Key Subtractions: David Ortiz, Clay Buchholz, Travis Shaw, Brad Zeigler, Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa

Possible Rookies to Watch: Andrew Benintendi

2017 Outlook: The Sox gave up some prized prospects but won the Chris Sale sweepstakes to add yet another Cy Young candidate to an already very good rotation. If there is one area of weakness on this team it will be the lack of depth in the bullpen with the loss of Zeigler, Uehara, and Tazawa.

Andrew Benintendi is the clear frontrunner for AL Rookie of the Year. Aside from him, the Sox still have a solid farm and good prospects, but none that are expected to contribute this year barring serious injury to a key player.

With the addition of Sale, the Red Sox will be on the short list of World Series favorites this season. Anything less than a sustained playoff run will be a failure.

2017 Prediction: 98-64

Baltimore Orioles: Last Year 89-73 (2nd in AL East)

MLB: Spring Training-Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

2016 Review: The O’s were a bit of a victim of a tough division last year. Overall they had a solid year but got stuck in the wild card game because of the Red Sox. They saw continued growth from superstar Manny Machado, who is legitimately in the conversation of best player not named Mike Trout. Britton has become the best closer in baseball, but overall the pitching staff was not up to par. A great offense carried the team at home but they struggled mightily on the road en route to a 39-42 road record.

Key Additions: Wellington Castillo, Richard Bleier

Key Subtractions: Matt Weiters, Vance Worley, Yovani Gallardo

Possible Rookies to Watch: None

2017 Outlook: It’s hard to look at the O’s roster and say they got any better this offseason. They certainly didn’t make any moves to push the needle to keep up with the Sox after the Chris Sale trade. They’ll be a good team again in wild card contention, but it’s hard to see them making a run at the division.

As far as rookies are concerned, they don’t have anyone expected to make much of an impact in 2017. Most of their prospects will not be ready for at least another year.

2017 Prediction: 87-75

Toronto Blue Jays: Last Year 89-73 (3rd in AL East)

MLB: Spring Training-Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays

2016 Review: The Blue Jays in classic Blue Jays fashion packed a fearsome punch in the middle of their lineup with Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion, and Tulo. The more surprising thing was the meaningful contributions they got out of their starting rotation. By the end of the year, they legitimately had five solid starters, some of which are young building blocks for the future.

Key Additions: Steve Pearce, Kendrys Morales

Key Subtractions: Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, Joaquin Benoit, Brett Cecil, R.A Dickey

Possible Rookies to Watch: None

2017 Outlook: The Jays lost some punch in their lineup with Encarnacion and Saunders leaving, and replaced that with substantially less punch in Morales and Pearce. They’ll still have a solid offense, but it will be on pitchers such as Stroman and Sanchzez to build on last year and show they can be two guys to sit atop the rotation for years to come.

While the Jays farm system has some quality talent, there is no one expected to make much of an impact this season. This is why it is all the more important that Stroman and Sanchez play up to and beyond the same level as last year.

The Jays should once again be in wild card contention, but the loss of Encarnacion is probably going to hurt more than they may think now. They won’t be able to simply out power teams as often. Any regression from 2016 Cy Young candidate JA Happ will also be very detrimental.

2017 Prediction: 89-73

New York Yankees: Last Year 84-78 (4th in AL East)

MLB: Spring Training-New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies

2016 Review: 2016 was the year the Yankees finally decided to commit to the long term rather than the short term. They were sellers at the trade deadline for the first time in ages, and boy did they cash in big time (more on that later). They watched some of their youngsters come up with mixed success, and saw the end of the road for long time players in Alex Rodriguez and Mark Texiera. 2016 ended up being about getting younger and loading up for the future, and on that front they succeeded.

Key Additions: Chris Carter, Aroldis Chapman, Matt Holiday

Key Subtractions: Brian McCann, Mark Texiera, Alex Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi

Possible Rookies to Watch: Aaron Judge

2017 Outlook: It feels funny putting Chapman in key additions considering he was a Yankee until the deadline last year, but that makes his trade look all the more better. In trading Chapman, the Yankees got back one of the elite prospects in all of baseball in Gleyber Torres, and then Chapman came back making Torres essentially free. The bullpen will again be dominant, with Clippard, Betances, and Chapman holding down the back end. Texiera, McCann, and A-Rod all result in addition by subtraction, because they open up spots for Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, and a revolving DH (Mostly filled by Holiday and Carter).

Aaron Judge is likely to get the bulk of the time in right field, and if he can fill some holes in the zone he can be a key contributor right away. Bird no longer qualifies as a rookie, but will take over for Texiera at 1st base. He has been tearing the cover off the ball all spring, which may be a sign of big things to come. He farm is deep with elite talent, but unless there are injuries to starters, there likely won’t be any openings for other position rookies this season. Some pitchers may shuttle back and forth between New York and Scranton.

The Yankees are a tough team to figure this season. If Sanchez is 80% of what he was last year and Bird continues his hot spring into the summer, the Yankees could challenge for the playoffs. If the youngsters struggle a bit, they could struggle as a team to about a .500 record. This team is likely 1-2 years away from making major noise, but some production from the young guns is what will be the key to success this year.

2017 Prediction: 85-77

Tampa Bay Rays: Last Year 68-94 (Last in AL East)

MLB: Spring Training-Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

2016 Review: 2016 was a bit of a weird year in Tampa. Nobody quite lived up to expectations and the team struggled to win games. Although the record was terrible, they lost a lot of close and winnable games. Their run differential was more so like a 74-76 win team rather than a 68 win team, meaning they were a little more competitive than their record would otherwise suggest.

Key Additions: Colby Rasmus

Key Subtractions: Logan Forsythe, Desmond Jennings, Drew Smyly

Possible Rookies to Watch: Casey Gillaspie, Jose De Leon

2017 Outlook: The biggest thing the Rays will be looking for is a bounce back year from ace Chris Archer, who went 9-19 last year. Don’t be entirely surprised if the completely flips that record this year to 19-9. They’ll aslo be looking for most of the rest of the roster, who largely underperformed last year, to just play to their potential this year.

Jose De Leon should slot right into the starting rotation this year, and Gillaspie could get a shot at first base at some point. De Loen could be a dark horse rookie of the year candidate in the American league.

The Rays are also a little tough to place this year. Look for a bit of a bounce back year, but expect them to still struggle in a very strong AL East

2017 Prediction: 75-87

In Summary, the projected records for the AL East this year are as follows:

Red Sox 98-64

Blue Jays 89-73

Orioles 87-75

Yankees 85-77

Rays 75-87

That’s a wrap on the AL East. What do you think? Who is going to win the division? Who is the one addition or subtraction that will make the biggest difference? Who is the top rookie to watch in the division? Comment and let us know! Stay tuned for more current sports stories. Don't forget to follow us on social media. You can find us on Facebook, Instagram @beyondthemetrics, and Twitter @byondthemetrics

Check out our other baseball previews:

https://www.sportsblog.com/beyondthemetrics/american-league-west-preview/

https://www.sportsblog.com/beyondthemetrics/national-league-west-preview/

https://www.sportsblog.com/beyondthemetrics/american-league-central-preview/

https://www.sportsblog.com/beyondthemetrics/national-league-central-preview/