National League East Preview
Today we have the 6th in our series of baseball posts coming up, this time featuring the National League East. This is the last of the divisions to preview. Opening day is Sunday April 2, so it will be here before you know it! We have a schedule of posts set up so you can follow. All links to previous posts in the baseball series will be posted at the bottom of this post.
AL West: Friday March 10:
NL West: Sunday March 12
AL Central: Friday March 17
NL Central: Sunday March 19 (UPDATE: Monday, March 20)
AL East: Friday March 24
NL East: Sunday March 26
Preseason Award Favorites: Friday March 31
Way Too Early Postseason Predictions: Sunday April 2
For each team, there will be a quick review of last year, key additions and subtractions, possible impact in 2017 by prospects, and an outlook and prediction for 2017. For the additions and subtractions, we will simply be naming the guys who can make an impact. The guys who are last on the bench or last in the bullpen may be left out. The additions and subtractions will also be limited to guys added or lost in the offseason. Guys who came or went at the trade deadline last year were an addition or subtraction for last year, not so much for this year coming up (Example, Andrew Miller will not be a subtraction for the Yankees. Aroldis Chapman will be a subtraction for the Cubs). That said, let’s dig in to the NL East.
Washington Nationals: Last Year 95-67 (1st in NL East)
2016 Review: 2016 was a miserable year for Bryce Harper, but the Nats got MVP like production from midseason call up Trea Turner. They got great production from the top of the rotation in Scherzer and Roark, while Strasburg was hurt again and Gio struggled. Overall it was an all or nothing year from most of their players, and if all were hot they were going to be World Series contenders, but since that wasn’t the case it was an early October exit.
Key Additions: Adam Eaton, Matt Weiters, Adam Lind, Vance Worley
Key Subtractions: Ben Revere, Danny Espinosa, Wilson Ramos, Mark Melancon, Matt Belisle, Johnathon Papelbon, Yosmerio Petit
Possible Rookies to Watch: Koda Glover, Erick Fedde, AJ Cole, Austin Voth
2017 Outlook: The Nats made some really bold moves this offseason, seemingly making panic moves after losing out in the Chris Sale sweepstakes. They sold their soul for Adam Eaton, letting a couple really good prospects in Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez go. They also lose Wilson Ramos who had a monster year in 2016, while bringing in Matt Weiters to replace him. They lost several arms in the bullpen, which was probably the weakest area of the team in 2016.
Koda Glover could help boost the bullpen some, and should be expected to throw some high leverage innings this season. Fedde, Cole, and Voth could all also factor into the bullpen at some point this season.
The Nats made some big-time additions this offseason but also lost a lot to get them. They should still be considered the favorites in the NL East, but we’re not so sure the moves pushed the needle at all.
2017 Prediction: 94-68
New York Mets: Last Year 87-75 (2nd in NL East)
2016 Review: 2016 was a bit of a disappointing year for the Mets, as they were reduced to competing for a wild card rather than a World Series. This was mainly due to injuries, as their anticipated big four in their rotation of deGrom, Harvey, Syndegaard, and Matz only made 93 combined starts out of a possible 130. Still, with all the injuries they managed a very respectable 87 wins. They added Jay Bruce at the deadline hoping to add some pop to their lineup, but he did not live up to expectations after switching teams.
Key Additions: None
Key Subtractions: James Loney, Alejandro De Aza, Big Sexy Bartolo Colon, Jim Henderson, Logan Verett
Possible Rookies to Watch: Robert Gsellman, Brandon Nimmo, Gavin Cecchini
2017 Outlook: The Mets are mostly staying the course in 2017, believing that they have the tools necessary to make it back to the World Series with what they have. They will be looking for more out f Jay Bruce, after he drove in only 19 runs in 50 games after they dealt for him. Provided their top four pitchers are mostly healthy in 2017, they will already see a big boost from 2016 and will boast one of the best rotations in all of baseball. If their top four can make at least 115 out of a possible 130 starts, they will be competing for the division crown.
While the Mets lose Big Sexy to the Braves, they’ll replace him with rookie Robert Gsellman, who flashed some good stuff in a brief look last season. He could be a candidate for 2017 rookie of the year. Nimmo will likely be a fourth outfielder, and Cecchini could be a utility infielder who may step into a bigger role if there is any injuries.
The Mets will be in contention again this year provided they can stay healthy. Provided they have health, with the addition of Gsellman to the rotation they can boast five really young really good starters. The success of this team rests solely on those five arms.
2017 Prediction: 90-72
Miami Marlins: Last year 79-82 (3rd in NL East)
2016 Review: 2016 saw superstar Giancarlo Stanton miss a lot of time, but the Marlins did not miss a beat. Their young lineup stepped up in his absence, and their pitching was mostly able to hold their own to keep them in games. They took a step forward as a team to reckon with in the wild card chase, but came up short in September.
Key Additions: Dan Straily, Junichi Tazawa, AJ Ellis, Jeff Locke, Edison Volquez
Key Subtractions: Jose Fernandez*, Chris Johnson, Mike Dunn, Fernando Rodney
*Jose Fernandez was tragically killed in a boating accident in September of last season
Possible Rookies to Watch: JT Riddle, Drew Steckenrider, Jarlin Garcia
2017 Outlook: The Marlins undoubtedly were dramatically set back with the loss of Jose Fernandez. He was one of the most exciting and most electric young pitchers in the game, and you don’t just replace him in the rotation or in the locker room. The weakness of the Marlins in 2016 was their rotation, and with Jose’s passing, they needed to make the rotation their #1 priority this offseason. They added Straily and Volqeuz to help boost their production. They still boast one of the best outfields in all of baseball with Giancarlo, Ozuna, and Yelich, and the strength of the team will still be the lineup.
JT Riddle is a Ben Zobrist like prospect, who can legitimately play 5 or 6 positions. Garcia will factor into either the bullpen or rotation depending on need, and Steckenrider could be another bullpen addition.
The Marlins were a team on the cusp, but with the loss of Fernandez, they likely won’t take the same expected step forward. We expect others to step up, but the overall production to remain about the same.
2017 Prediction: 78-84
Philadelphia Phillies: Last Year 71-91 (4th in NL East)
2016 Review: The Phillies flashed early with Vince Velasquez and Aaron Nola pitching great and Odubel Herrera setting the table getting on base at a Mike Trout like rate. Then Nola and Velasquez both regressed some and missed starts, and Herrera also regressed a bit, and the Philles started coming apart at the seams. They were never meant to contend in 2016 though, so the fact that they showed a lot of promise early was a good sign for the future.
Key Additions: Pat Venditte, Michael Saunders, Joaquin Benoit, Howie Kendrick
Key Subtractions: AJ Ellis, Peter Bourjas, Cody Asche, Ryan Howard, David Hernandez
Possible Rookies to Watch: Victor Arano, Roman Quinn
2017 Outlook: The Phillies should start to see some growth this year as their rebuild will start moving in a positive direction. They did not have any major losses, and the additions they made are mostly players who can help them win some extra games, but will not block any young players from making an impact. If Velasquez and Nola can pitch like they did in April and May last year, and Herrera and Franco show a little growth from last year, this team will be a challenge each and every game.
Victor Arano is someone who could be added to the bullpen, and has absolutely electric stuff. He has the stuff to be the next Ken Giles for the Phillies. Roman Quinn is a burner who will also play very good outfield defense. He could find a role for himself alongside Herrera and Saunders.
The biggest thing for the Phillies is to see continued growth from their young players this year. They shouldn’t be expected to contend, but should take a nice step forward provided their youngsters stay healthy and continue to grow.
2017 Prediction: 77-85
Atlanta Braves: Last Year 68-93 (Last in NL East)
2016 Review: 2016 was hopefully a bottom out year for the Braves in their rebuild. Unless Julio Tehran was pitching they were flat out awful. They held on to Freddie Freeman to be their big hitter of the next great Braves team, and he had a great year with little to no help. They also saw prized prospect Dansby Swanson debut and be effective, giving them more hope for the future.
Key Additions: Brandon Phillips, Kurt Suzuki, Kris Medlen, Jacob Lindgren, Sean Rodriguez, Big Sexy Bartolo Colon, RA Dickey
Key Subtractions: Gordon Beckham, AJ Pierzynski, Mallex Smith, Erick Aybar, Jeff Francoeur, Chris Withrow, Alexi Ogando
Possible Rookies to Watch: Dansby Swanson, AJ Minter
2017 Outlook: The Braves made some moves this offseason that were head scratching to some, but they actually make a lot of sense. Adding veterans like Phillips, Colon, Suzuki, and Dickey will help them bridge the gap a bit in their rebuild, allowing them to be more competitive now while not blocking any major prospects years down the road. The Braves have as good of a farm system as anyone, with nine top 100 prospects, but most of them will not be ready this year. This is why it makes sense to add guys like they did to fill the holes for the next year or two in the interim.
The most prized prospect in the system is without a doubt Dansby Swanson, who is a top 3 prospect in all of baseball no matter who you ask. He is the frontrunner for rookie of the year in the NL this year, much like Andrew Benintendi in the AL. AJ Minter will start the year in the minors, but could be added to the Braves bullpen midway through the season. He is an absolutely electric arm and could be the closer of the future.
This will be a big year for the Braves in developing their young talent. They will be just as concerned with how their top prospects are performing in the minors as they are with their big league team. They especially want to see Swanson excel this season.
2017 Prediction: 70-92
In summary, the projected standings for the NL East in 2017 are as follows:
Nationals 94-68
Mets 90-72
Marlins 78-84
Phillies 77-85
Braves 70-92
That’s a wrap on the NL East. What do you think? Who is going to win the division? Who is the one addition or subtraction that will make the biggest difference? Who is the top rookie to watch in the division? Comment and let us know! Stay tuned for more current sports stories. Don't forget to follow us on social media. You can find us on Facebook, Instagram @beyondthemetrics, and Twitter @byondthemetrics
Check out our other baseball previews:
https://www.sportsblog.com/beyondthemetrics/american-league-west-preview/
https://www.sportsblog.com/beyondthemetrics/national-league-west-preview/
https://www.sportsblog.com/beyondthemetrics/american-league-central-preview/
https://www.sportsblog.com/beyondthemetrics/national-league-central-preview/
https://www.sportsblog.com/beyondthemetrics/american-league-east-preview/
