College Football Eliminator 2016-17: Week 12
I eliminated several teams that actually have a reasonable shot of making the playoff. Unbelievable. With just a few weeks left before the final College Football Playoff ranking is released, there are not six teams in the mix like I had anticipated. There are really about twelve teams still hoping to hear their names called on Selection Sunday. Instead of just listing those teams, we'll talk about everyone's path to the playoff this week, including those eight teams I eliminated before this week. With rivalry week approaching, check out the twelve teams left and how each can clinch a spot in the playoff.
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The Four Playoff Teams
#1 Alabama, #4 Clemson, #2 Ohio State, and #6 Washington are the top four in that order. Alabama deserves every number one vote they received in the AP Poll (which was all 61) and will face a test in the Iron Bowl against Auburn before a rematch with Florida in Atlanta, hoping to go into the playoff untouched at 13-0.
Clemson makes the playoff with a win over South Carolina and a victory in the ACC Championship Game over Virginia Tech. Seems easy enough, but who knows.
Ohio State needs a win over Michigan (only the greatest college football rivalry game of all-time), they would most likely stall at 11-1 and slip into the playoff because Penn State would only need a win over Michigan State in that case to win the Big Ten East and represent the division in the Big Ten Championship Game. That would most likely be enough to put them in rather than any of the possible two-loss teams in the Big Ten, even a conference champion. Weird, right? I'll explain more when we get to Michigan and Penn State.
Washington also has a tough road ahead: the Apple Cup versus Wazzu is the Pac-12 North title game and the winner moves on to the Pac-12 Championship Game against either Colorado or USC. They must beat Washington State, then (most likely) Colorado to take the division and join the playoff squad with just one loss. Not as easy as it sounds though. These four teams have the best chance of getting in, but there are plenty of teams re-entering the race late that would love to have one of these four coveted spots, including the two just outside and looking in.
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Outside Looking In
Next week, this category will have to be filled with teams that were eliminated last week. This week, however, just two teams sit on the outside looking in and they are #3 Michigan and #14 Western Michigan. Just Michigan teams. If Michigan wins out, they are in. Not Oklahoma or Colorado or anyone else. Ohio State out, Michigan in. Right now, a handful of teams have re-entered the race but only Michigan controls their own destiny for sure. A win over Ohio State and a win in the Big Ten Championship Game over Wisconsin would send the Wolverines to their first playoff.
Western Michigan, on the other hand, is asking 'Why not us?' after beating every team they have faced this season, staring down Toledo and the MAC Championship Game before a New Year's Six date. If they can win all three, there will definitely be some controversy as to who is qualified to make the playoff. Two-loss teams that have a chance at winning their conferences (Colorado, Florida, Wisconsin, etc.) are hoping Western Michigan loses and drops out of the picture before selection week.
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Previously Eliminated Serious Playoff Contenders
The six previously-eliminated teams still looking for a spot in the playoff are #5 Wisconsin, #7 Oklahoma, #9 Colorado, #8 Penn State, #10 Oklahoma State, and #13 Florida in that order. They all have different roads to the playoff, and most of them involve the other five not making it. None of them really control their own destinies, although some have easier roads than others. Let's start from the top. If Wisconsin beats Minnesota and Penn State in the title game, they will have a hard time fighting with an 11-1 Ohio State for the playoff representative from the Big Ten. However, if Michigan beats Ohio State and makes the Big Ten Championship Game instead of Penn State, a win over that team would definitely make Wisconsin look better than a win over Penn State. Good grief. Hopefully, this whole thing gets sorted out with the Gophers upsetting the Badgers so I don't have to think about all these hypothetical scenarios.
The loser of the Bedlam Game, Oklahoma-Oklahoma State, goes home and the winner needs some other top teams to lose to find the playoff, more on the winner's chances next week, before Championship Week! Colorado's situation is like Oklahoma's, but Oklahoma is higher on the pecking order so they need Oklahoma to lose the Bedlam game to have the best shot of getting in, plus a win over Utah and a win over Washington/Washington State in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Not an easy thing to do.
Penn State is further down on this list, because a Michigan win in the Michigan-Ohio State game means no Big Ten Championship appearance for the Nittany Lions, and a two-loss team with no conference title to their name means no playoff. More on Penn State if they handle Michigan State. Florida is in a great place if they can beat Florida State and Alabama...but they have to beat Florida State and Alabama. Like Penn State, we'll talk more about the Gators if they can manage a win in Tallahassee before the SEC Championship Game.
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Eliminated
Louisville - If Louisville lost on a Thursday night and no one really cared to watch it, did it really even happen? The answer is yes, and to Houston, the team that started in the top five of the AP Poll and managed to fall out of the poll completely after losses to Navy and SMU. Back to Louisville! Clemson has the conference championship mostly in the bag, so it's time to count the Cardinals out of this year's playoff race after a great run.
Nebraska, Utah, Washington State - Three teams that I thought could have a second chance then immediately said "no thx". Teams that get eliminated twice do not deserve their own special paragraph. All three of these teams, however, still have the ability to shake things up in the playoff race for teams still in the running and find themselves in bowl games people might actually watch. No offense, Dollar General Bowl.
West Virginia - The Big 12 surprise for the whole season is finally out of the running. Not just kinda out, like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Like really out. Of course it ends up being Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in the playoff race at the end of the season, it's never the underdog. Good run, Mountaineers. My crystal ball shows an Alamo Bowl in the near future. The weather is much nicer in San Antonio than in Morgantown, West Virginia.
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Eliminated in Week 11
No Eliminations
Eliminated in Week 10
Baylor, Florida, Nebraska, Texas A&M
Eliminated in Week 9
Boise State, Utah
Eliminated in Week 8
No Eliminations
Eliminated in Week 7
Arizona State, Maryland, Miami, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Wisconsin
Eliminated in Week 6
Air Force, Arkansas, Colorado, Houston, Indiana, Minnesota, North Carolina, Stanford, Texas Tech
Eliminated in Week 5
Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Memphis, Michigan State, Navy, San Diego State, TCU, Texas, Toledo
Eliminated in Week 4
Arizona, Army, Central Michigan, Georgia Southern, LSU, Oregon, Penn State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, South Florida, UCLA
Eliminated in Week 3
Auburn, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Duke, East Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Marshall, Missouri, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Southern Miss
Eliminated in Week 2
Akron, Ball State, BYU, California, Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee, NC State, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Purdue, SMU, South Alabama, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Troy, Tulsa, UCF, UNLV, Utah State, UTEP, UTSA, Western Kentucky, Wyoming
Eliminated in Week 1
Appalachian State, Boston College, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Charlotte, FIU, Fresno State, Georgia State, Hawaii, Iowa State, Kent State, Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Massachusetts, Miami (OH), Mississippi State, New Mexico State, North Texas, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio, Oregon State, Rice, Rutgers, San Jose State, Southern California, Temple, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Washington State
Check back in next Sunday to find out if your team has been eliminated in 'College Football Eliminator 2016-17: Week 13'.
