Anatomy of a Football Collapse
I was going to do this after the Texas A&M/UCLA game last week but things got crazy a bit. But anyway, it is a week late, but I think it still holds value as there will probably be one, maybe two more games this year where we see big leads go by the wayside in both college football and the NFL. So I wanted to figure out the explanations of why we see collapses in football of big leads being lost in the 3rd & 4th quarters and when I saw the memes of the Aggies and the Atlanta Falcons together, it made me think more. And while not ALL football collapses in the 4th are the same and have differences, there are trends/patterns that I saw that I went "didn't think about that, but I guess it holds true."
There are 4 games that tremendously stick out for me as epic football collapses and a 5th game that has to be considered a collapse. Two of them are in the NFL and two of them are in college: The Texas A&M/UCLA game to start this season, Baylor and Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl, the Falcons and Patriots in Super Bowl LI, and the Houston Oilers against Buffalo Bills in the AFC Playoff circa 1992 (I know there are more, but these are the ones I watched throughout). The 5th one was the Lions against the Packers in 2015.
So I will sum up the collapses of each:
Texas A&M had a 44-10 lead late in the 2nd half to lose to UCLA 45-44.
Baylor had a 41-21 lead on Michigan State in the 4th to lose 42-41.
Atlanta's 28-3 lead is a meme in its own right, losing 34-28 in OT.
Houston had a 35-3 lead in the 2nd half to Buffalo, losing 41-38 in OT
Detroit had a 20-0 lead in the 2nd half to Green Bay, losing 27-23 on Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary.
So, what do these games have in common? A lot actually. At least to me they do.
So what are the trends?
1. ALL 5 TEAMS WERE PASSING-ORIENTED AND/OR UP-TEMPO TEAMS: I know Texas A&M ran the ball against UCLA a lot. However, in the 2nd half when the Aggies were up 41-10, they still passed, or called passing plays 20 out of the 42 plays they had when they had the lead. And Mond was not hitting the broad side of a barn when he came in so it was dumbfounding in that way. And they were not slowing the pace down either, which is a Sumlin thing in his time at College Station. But if you look at the other teams here. Baylor was a spread/air raid offense that relied on the pass. Houston had the famed run-and-shoot offense. Detroit had an offense that HAD to pass with an inept run game. And Atlanta had a balanced offense that could run the ball, but they felt their ammo was the passing game. In both A&M and the Falcons case, had the ran the ball late and turned it over to their kicker, neither one would be on this NOR I would be posting about it. And if you ever noticed that teams like the Steelers, the 90's Cowboys, Alabama, LSU, and Stanford do not have those games of epic collapses, is because they run the ball and are still very much a run-oriented group.
2. THE COACHES GOT TOO STUBBORN/ARROGANT: I don't necessarily mean head coaches. Could be the coordinators like Kyle Shanahan, whom Dan Quinn allowed to call the offensive plays. But the others refused to change the play when the lead was too big and continued doing the nonsense of trying to score more instead of taking time off the clock. Detroit may have been the exception to the rule as they weren't as good as the others, relatively speaking (they were an under .500 team at the time and finished 7-9) and there was just not a loads worth of talent on the Lions that year.
3. "PREVENT" TO WIN: This is one of the most FRUSTRATING things I see in both college and pro. Teams are so scared to death of giving up THE BIG PLAY that they stay too far off, play conservative and let offenses get into rhythms. And it isn't just these 5 teams, it is pretty much every team in college and pro who does this mess. The whole thing is, coaches will say "we don't want to get burnt!" The funny thing is, most of the times, the defense hadn't gotten burnt all game so why change it up? I think you can accuse EVERY TEAM on here for having that problem.
4. EARLY CELEBRATING? It is probably hard for even the players at time to look up at the score and see you're up by 21-30 points in the 4th and not feel "relaxed." After all, you have dominated the 3 quarters on a good team. Yes, the NFL we consider them professional and in college they had those wins against crummy teams that they are up by 30 as well and the game is really over. So, I think it is NATURAL to have that feeling. This is where you DON'T see the Patriots or Alabama on here because they lowered the hammer and played until the whistle ends in the 4th. You need to have a coach like a Belicheck or a Saban that they look at the score and go "hey, shut up! I am trying to see what we need do better out there! And this game isn't over!" as both are seeing a 45-7 score with a minute left. I'm not saying any of these 5 teams got that way, but none of them had the same intensity as they had to start the game.
5. THOSE WHO DON'T LEARN FROM THEIR OWN HISTORY.......what is forgotten about ALL THESE TEAMS was that they all had games where they blew a big lead in the 4th and squeak by, blew a lead from the year before, or actually held an epic comeback of their own. Texas A&M had a game the year before, going up 28-7 on Tennessee before the Vols came back and sent the game in OT. Houston had a 21-6 lead against Denver late in the 2nd quarter of a Playoff game the year before and lost. The Falcons had a few games in 2016 where they had leads of double digits in 4th quarters to either lose (Chargers) or nearly have a collapse (Saints). And you can go further with the Falcons in 2012 with a similar ensemble blowing a 20-point lead to Seattle in the playoffs only to win at the last second and blowing a 17-point lead to San Francisco the week after. Baylor was the one who came back on TCU 58-37 a few months prior. And Detroit had a jump on the Cowboys in the Playoffs in 2015 and many thought it would have been smooth sails for the Lions that game. Nope.
6. CONTROVERSIAL CALLS: This one you can't fault the teams for because well, they couldn't really control it. The ONLY one I can't think of is the Falcons loss as there wasn't really a "bad call" or a "blown no-call." But let's start with the Aggies. The receiver for the Bruins bobbled the pass and never really gained possession of it, which was the game-winning touchdown. Baylor fans screamed of a personal foul block on their kicker as Michigan State just DRILLED him into another world after the blocked kick. An onside kick recovered by Buffalo shouldn't have been as Don Beebe stepped out of bounds and was the first to touch it (penalty!), and a face-mask on which was supposed to be the final play of the game for Detroit where Rodgers deliberately moved his head to get the face-mask gave them another chance.
7. KEY PLAYS THAT ARE FOREVER ETCHED INTO FANS' BRAINS: Rodgers Hail Mary. The block on the Baylor punter, the insane catch the Patriots had in the 4th on Atlanta, Reich to Reed, and the "no-pick 6" where the Aggies defender had it go through his hands to the UCLA receiver. Just unbelievable and that ultimate momentum shift.
8. THE OPPONENTS WERE GREAT: Jury is out on UCLA where the Bruins struggled last year, but so far, a good start. But let's remember who the opponents were: Houston faced the Bills when they were in the midst of their AFC dominance (albeit Kelly & Thomas were out, but still had a legit squad). Atlanta faced a Patriots DYNASTY that has dominated for the last 16 years and Tom Brady. Detroit faced Rodgers and a Packers team that is at the forefront of the NFC every year and a team that dominates the Lions. Baylor saw Michigan State who was a top 5/top 10 college football team for the previous 5 years. So while I'm not saying "well, you can't blame them entirely," they all faced powers. I guess the collapses would either be worse OR "swept under the rug" if this was like the 96 Jets, 2016 Browns, Kansas, or Oregon State because it wouldn't have a lot of a meaning to the game whereas you had playoff games, championship games, bowl games etc. And let's face it, the 96 Jets, 2016 Browns, Kansas and Oregon State would have folded tent by halftime anyway.
AFTERMATHS:
Collapses have different results for sure. That Oilers team may have been the beginning of the end for them leaving Houston and were gone 3 years later and many credit the collapse of the franchise in Houston as fans stopped coming out to watch the Oilers. Of course, the NFL is back with the Texans and are now rivals of the old Oilers (as we now know them as the Tennessee Titans). Baylor was considered a national championship threat and many felt like they were screwed out of the selection and since then, have fallen off a cliff. Art Briles is gone due to a scandal of his players abusing women and him hiding it up and the Bears in just 3 years removed may end up 0-12 or 1-11. I wouldn't say the collapse of the Cotton Bowl was a key factor, but one does wonder at times. Detroit, maybe given they were in a transition year (much like most years since 1957 for the Lions), shrugged it off and made the playoffs in 2016 (and came close to their first division title in 23 years).
The jury is still out on the Aggies and Falcons. Texas A&M already has a maligned head coach that could be fired and they nearly lost to Nicholls the week after and now fans of the base are starting to get vile towards him (which in my eyes has NO PLACE for sports). The Falcons many chalk up the collapse to the inexperienced defense and myself included believe they are taking the collapse in stride and are still considered a favorite in the NFC.
While the collapses in football are all different, a lot of them have similar trends. Some can be controlled, some can't. And as I said before, we will see more of them this year, next year and years' after. And you will end up with poor play-calling and a blown call here or there, or maybe teams being too content. And they will be a meme when all is said & done. It is can teams understand how to avoid them? It seems like they don't.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
