The Obstructed AFC Divisional Preview: Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
So the Rematch Playoff Weekend continues Saturday night as the Patriots play host to the Houston Texans. New England thumped Houston in Week 3 without Tom Brady 27-0 with only 95 passing yards from Jacoby Brissett and the odd thing was Houston outgained New England's offense 284-282. That said, when you turn the ball over 3 times and allowed 185 rushing yards on the ground, you're bound to lose. And Brady is back. So it won't be a 95 yard passing performance here. Many have said Houston didn't belong there with being in the weak AFC South, especially after Brock Osweiler's dismal season, but after a strong win against Oakland where Osweiler looked like a competent QB, many have re-thought this game as one where the Patriots might have to put up a fight. But will they?
HOUSTON TEXANS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, SATURDAY, 8:15, CBS
HOUSTON WINS IF:
Osweiler looked like a flash of why Houston paid him that insane amount last week.
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
1. OSWEILER PLAYS GREAT: I've said in the past that "QB's have to play 'smart,' not 'great.'" Well, in this case, while Osweiler played smart against New England last year while he was with Denver, it was somewhat of an aberration as it was snowing and the Patriots did not have much information on the guy. And while Osweiler has the #1 defense on his side, it isn't like the Patriots have an all-offense, no-defense type of team like they've had in the past. You're talking a top ten overall defense to match their high powered offense. So Osweiler needs to have the game of his life in order for even the Texans to have a shot. He played very well against Oakland, but the Raiders were really psychologically beat when Carr went down.
New England isn't an overly physical group offensively in the receiving corps.
Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
2. DEFENSE PLAYS PHYSICAL WITH THE WIDE RECEIVERS: Houston's offense is #1 against the pass and #1 overall in total yards allowed. And that is without JJ Watt. The Texans are a physical group that can frustrate opposing wideouts and the two games that the Patriots lost was the fact teams played pretty physical with them. Yes, New England won 27-0, but used the running game and benefited from 4 turnovers. If they continue to play physical on the wideouts, New England will have to use other strategies.
Blount is a beast and had an awesome year, but the Patriots still need to win with Brady.
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
3. PUT IT ON BLOUNT: Houston is ranked #12th in rushing yards allowed and while New England's running game is solid, it is really what closes games out for the Patriots. However, if they manage to disrupt the passing game, which seems to be an impossible task, even for the Texans, they can zero in on Blount, who was a fantasy stud with being a touchdown maker. But if you make him the focal point of the offense, it isn't what the Patriots really want.
Lamar Miller needs to have a big game as well for Houston to win.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
4. ESTABLISH THE RUN: Not sure how they'll do that given the Patriots have the 3rd best rushing defense in the league, but they have to in some way to keep pressure off of Osweiler. If not and the Patriots force Osweiler to pass the entire time, that 27-0 loss will look like a nip & tuck battle compared to what Saturday might be. The good news is, they have a quality runner in Lamar Miller. So it isn't completely impossible that this happens.
NEW ENGLAND WINS IF:
New England's quick starts frustrate many teams they face.
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
1. THEY TAKE AN EARLY LEAD: Houston isn't a team that plays well from behind. The Texans need to keep it close the whole way. If it gets to be at any point of 14 or more points I don't see Houston coming back at all, even if Osweiler plays well. No team does better than putting foot on a throat than New England. If they let Houston hang around and give the Texans confidence, especially on defense, they could knock the Patriots offense out of rhythm. It is possible and teams have done it in the past in January (Jets, Ravens, Broncos).
Blount could play a factor one way or another for New England.
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
2. WIN THE TIME OF POSSESSION WAR: One way of getting strong defenses like the Texans weakened is to keep them on the field. Just look at the National Championship game. Clemson may not have won every series with Alabama, but they kept the Tide's defense on the field. While it might be college, the same rules apply to the pros. If New England wears the Texans defense out, it will be a long game. Meaning, short passes, running the ball, etc. i.e. a strong and balanced attack.
New England frustrated Osweiler all game in the first meeting.
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
3. GET TO OSWEILER EARLY: Oakland failed to get to Osweiler early on and he established a rhythm and hurt the Raiders. If Osweiler gets into a rhythm, this game won't be as what New England wants. So I think New England will bring the house early and often on him. If they succeed, Houston will have a serious problem all game and Texan fans will be screaming for his release after Saturday night.
The Texans will play physical on Edelman and the rest of the Pats WR's/TE's.
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
4. WIDE RECEIVERS NEED TO HOLD THEIR GROUND: As I mentioned, the Patriots, whenever they do have issues offensively is when they play teams who have physical defenses and Houston is a physical defense. They just have to keep fighting and not give up anything. If the receivers and tight ends get bulled by Houston, it will be a problem. They might survive a game like the Texans, but down the road to a team who can match the offense like Pittsburgh, Dallas, or Atlanta, then it might not be the case (no, I am not saying the Cowboys or Falcons would beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, but physical defenses do give the Patriots problems).
MY PREDICTION: I think the majority of the nation is hoping Houston puts up a good fight and shock the world, but most are thinking "no way." Others think this will be a blowout and the Patriots will practice their plays for the Pittsburgh/Kansas City winner. While I think New England has all sorts of talent from top to bottom as opposed to Houston, I do think they might get off to a slightly slow start, at least on offense. However, I will not ever count out Belicheck or Brady and they will make the necessary adjustments to counter Houston's defense and wear them out as the game goes on. On the other side, I think Osweiler will have issues all game as the Raiders defense is nothing compared to the Patriots and given it is in Foxboro (though the Patriots have had issues in the past at home in the playoffs), I don't think Houston really generates much offense, either by pass or by run. I don't think it will get too ugly because Houston's defense is excellent, but there isn't much offense the Texans will generate and I think they turn the ball over 3-4 times Saturday, like they did in Week 3. PATRIOTS 24, TEXANS 6
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
