The Obstructed NCAA Football Preview: Week 5
We have arrived around the quarter portion of the season as the conference games kicks in its entirety. Some surprises, some shockers, and some great storylines are heading into the weeks ahead. My prediction scales are not up to snuff from the beginning of the year for some teams (California, Notre Dame, Duke, etc.) but there is still hope my 4 playoff teams get there. But that could be tested this weekend for sure. I am not going to predict how I have been predicting where I was using my pre-season picks but now we are seeing who is legit and who is a flop.
Last week I went 10-4 with my choices (not using the Vegas odds) and went to 36-18 on the season. TCU, Notre Dame, and Texas Tech messed things up for me. But this week I will look closer and think it may be a good week. Yeah, who am I kidding?
TEXAS @ IOWA STATE, 8:00, (THUR) ESPN: Of course, with Texas keeping it close on USC, the Longhorns are back! At least the national media is saying it. Do I think they are talented? Yes. But remember, this game is in Iowa State and the Cyclones play amped in Ames. Texas needs to be careful with this game or the "we are back despite losing to USC" feel goes away fast. Longhorns win in part for more depth and talent, but it won't be anywhere near a blowout. MY PREDICTION: TEXAS 41, IOWA STATE 38
#14 MIAMI @ DUKE, 7:00 (FRI), ESPN: The first meeting Miami and Duke have had at Wallace Wade since the ACC officials blew the game in 2015 on the kickoff nonsense. Duke has been very surprising this year being undefeated and really been impressive doing it. Miami is making an argument they are the best in the ACC Coastal AND in the ACC in general. If the Hurricanes come out and strike early, I don't know if Duke can play catch-up on them. Miami is just too talented and I think they may jump ahead early here. MY PREDICTION: MIAMI 34, DUKE 27
#5 USC @ #16 WASHINGTON STATE 10:30, (FRI), ESPN: Poor PAC-12. This is as good of a game as Clemson/Virginia Tech but nobody will pay attention to it. The Cougars can play some ball on both sides and USC really needs to worry about that. But so far Sam Darnold, albeit not looking like a major player for the Heisman yet, has stepped up when needed. But this is a game where he HAS to be a Heisman candidate. The Cougars are not a team to be messed with. This will be a shoot-out but I think Darnold leads a game-winning drive for the Trojans late and will have his Heisman candidacy pick up. Game will be VERY CLOSE I think. MY PREDICTION: USC 37, WASHINGTON STATE 34.
NORTHWESTERN @ #10 WISCONSIN, 12:00, ABC: The slow start by Northwestern didn't do any favors as this was supposed to be a tilt for the Big Ten West title. But with Wisconsin dominating early on and Northwestern scuffling on offense especially I don't see the Wildcats doing much on the Badger defense. Could it get ugly in Madison? Yep. MY PREDICTION: WISCONSIN 31, NORTHWESTERN 10
VANDERBILT @ #21 FLORIDA, 12:00, ESPN: Lady luck left Tennessee this year and went to Florida with the Hail Mary win agianst Tennessee and their comeback win against Kentucky. Vanderbilt's core has to be shaken however with their 59-0 humiliation loss from Alabama, but I think this will be a close game. But it may be one of those years where Florida is more lucky than good. Vandy will put up a fight but Florida will get a few key breaks. MY PREDICTION: FLORIDA 16, VANDERBILT 13
MARYLAND @ MINNESOTA: 12:00, FS1: Well, Maryland's statement victory against Texas went out the window with an embarrassing defeat to UCF at home. How the tide can turn especially if your two quarterbacks are dinged up. Minnesota is showing they can be a threat in the Big Ten West with PJ Fleck. And I think with Maryland down and Minnesota responding well under Fleck it may be another long game for the Terrapins. MY PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 38, MARYLAND 14
SYRACUSE @ NC STATE: 12:20, ACCN: This may be a fun game to watch given how both teams have played, especially against the perennial powers of LSU and Florida State. Syracuse nearly stunned the Tigers in Baton Rouge while NC State won in Tallahassee against Florida State. This is a game where if the Wolfpack aren't careful, they may get an upset happen here and hurt their chances of an ACC Championship berth (sounds funny but remember, the Wolfpack get Louisville and Clemson at home this year). But something makes me think their guard may be down with the Orange after the big win against Florida State. I'm going for an upset. MY PREDICTION: SYRACUSE 34, NC STATE 27.
INDIANA @ #4 PENN STATE, 3:30, BTN: Penn State is fortunate to escape Iowa with a win the way they had. Indiana should be a win here too but there could be a letdown especially with Michigan and Ohio State slowly looming. This game may be close for a while and if the Nittany Lions make some mistakes in the 2nd half, it may be another too close for comfort game. But I don't think Indiana (or anybody) can stop Barkley right now. MY PREDICTION: PENN STATE 37, INDIANA 21
#7 GEORGIA @ TENNESSEE, 3:30, CBS: Two teams going very opposite directions as Georgia looks to be a Playoff threat while many believe Butch Jones is pretty much on a scorching seat in Knoxville. And Georgia is bent on revenge after last year's loss of a Hail Mary from Tennessee. The only thing that makes me wonder is Neyland Stadium is a little shop of horrors for the Bulldogs over the years regardless of how good Georgia is and how bad Tennessee is. But I honestly think Tennessee is fractured and Georgia should crush them here, regardless of homefield. MY PREDICTION: GEORGIA 38, TENNESSEE 10
ARIZONA STATE @ STANFORD, 4:00, PAC-12: Arizona State said "not so fast" to their season and cooled Todd Graham's seat for the time being with an upset win against Oregon. But the question will be can they win on the road against a legit opponent like the Cardinal? Stanford has shown that if they face a weak defensive team like Arizona State, prepare to pay. And I think they will have another big offensive output this weekend against the Sun Devils. Playing a relatively young Oregon team is one thing. Playing a strong Stanford squad in Northern California is far different. MY PREDICTION: STANFORD 49, ARIZONA STATE 28.
IOWA @ MICHIGAN STATE, 4:00: FOX: Rematch of the Big Ten Championship from 2015 but also both teams are coming in with life sucked out of them from their prime-time losses last week. Iowa losing to Penn State on the final play of the game while Michigan State got embarrassed at home to Notre Dame with a mistake-filled football game. This will be another chippy fight between the Hawkeyes and Spartans (they always have these games) and it will be close. I don't know if Iowa's team is good on the road as they are at home and it is probably advantage Michigan State here, if they don't turn the ball over. MY PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE 17, IOWA 10
#24 MISSISSIPPI STATE @ #13 AUBURN, 6:00, ESPN: Neither team can afford another loss especially if they have to face Alabama (despite both teams getting the Tide at home) so this is by all accounts an elimination game for one of them. Mississippi State looked awful against Georgia and Fitzgerald could not pass to save his life. The one thing Auburn still has going for them is the run game on both sides. That will be the deciding factor. MY PREDICTION: AUBURN 28, MISSISSIPPI STATE 16
SOUTH CAROLINA @ TEXAS A&M, 7:30, SEC: SOME irony with Texas A&M recovering from their UCLA loss while UCLA has now in turn struggled. But the Aggies are still not considered good as they played two cupcakes and struggled and also struggled to an Arkansas team that is probably not very good. On the other hand, South Carolina has not been much better since their Missouri win and their offense has looked similar to what we've seen in the past few years (i.e. a dumpster fire). The game I think will be close and it will be who can run the ball better and if South Carolina can jump to an early lead. If they can, it will be a long game for the Aggies. That said, I don't see that happening and Texas A&M will pull away in the 2nd half. MY PREDICTION: TEXAS A&M 34, SOUTH CAROLINA 17
#2 CLEMSON @ #12 VIRGINIA TECH, 8:00, ABC: Clemson had one of the toughest early-season stretches for a team with a home game with Auburn and a road game against Louisville and now finishes September with a roadie at Virginia Tech. Will they escape Blacksburg? The Hokies play solid ball on both sides, which is something Clemson hasn't seen from their opponents (Auburn struggles on offense and Louisville on defense). So this will be their toughest challenge probably all season at this point. But if Virginia Tech controls the line on the offensive side, Clemson may be in major trouble. But Blacksburg on a Saturday night? That's tough for anybody. I don't know if Bryant will have a great outing there. MY PREDICTION: VIRGINIA TECH 24, CLEMSON 20
#15 OKLAHOMA STATE @ TEXAS TECH, 8:00, FOX: One team I have been VERY surprised at is Texas Tech. I felt like the defense would improve a little bit and a little bit has gone a long way. The Red Raiders can still put up points but it seems like they are being smarter on the offensive side and not having their own defense worn out as it has shown with their win against Houston. Oklahoma State, it may have been too easy too early for them and it may have been a key reason why the Cowboys lost at home to TCU. And THEY cannot stop anybody. This may be Texas Tech's game to show they are a potential sleeper in the Big 12. And they won't have their best defensive showing but Texas Tech will make a couple of stops for the win. MY PREDICTION: TEXAS TECH 55, OKLAHOMA STATE 45
OLE MISS @ #1 ALABAMA, 9:00, ESPN: Well, if you look at the last 2 calendar years, Ole Miss and Clemson are the only teams to have beaten Alabama. And if you look since 2014, Alabama's 2 SEC losses were to Ole Miss. The Tide won last year but it was a fight. Ole Miss won't be seeing postseason play thanks to Hugh Freeze but will take the Alabama game as their bowl game. That is good for them, but after last week, Vanderbilt woke a sleeping giant. I don't think Alabama wins 59-0 but they have something to prove on the Rebels for their 2 wins plus a near-3rd win. MY PREDICTION: ALABAMA 41, OLE MISS 17
COLORADO @ UCLA, 10:30, ESPN2: UCLA's amazing win vs. Texas A&M is now light years away as they have lost their last two and giving up an average of 53 points per game in the losses to Memphis and Stanford. That is BAAAAAAD! Colorado had a chance of revenge on Washington to make it a close game at the very least and instead got thumped by the Huskies at home. The offense for Colorado has been sketchy at times while the defense until the Washington game was holding up their end of the bargain. While the Bruins have Josh Rosen, I don't know if they will move it THAT well against Colorado's defense and I think UCLA will struggle stopping even Colorado so I think this goes as an upset. MY PREDICTION: COLORADO 31, UCLA 28
CALIFORNIA @ OREGON, 10:30 FS1: Oregon took a stinging hit last week in their loss to Arizona State as they showed they were still ways off from being a front runner in the PAC-12. Cal had the same issue with USC in Berkeley. So now it will be which team can stop the bleeding and avoid a 2-game losing streak to start conference play. I think the Ducks offense is good enough and fast enough they could run past the Bears, but it may not be as easy for the Ducks as Cal is showing they can play some defense. But the talent level and the Autzen Zoo will be in Oregon's favor. MY PREDICTION: OREGON 41, CALIFORNIA 28
Enjoy the games!
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
