Bowl Week #2 Predictions

By Joey Broback

• A State of Gameday

Dec. 25, 2015

OVERVIEW

December 25, 2015

Joe Broback

GAMES OF THE WEEK

*all rankings are based on Playoff Committee rankings

Overall Record: 36-24 Bowl Record:  5-7

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS

My pick: Arizona 30 New Mexico 21 ACTUAL: Arizona 45 New Mexico 37

My pick: BYU 21 Utah 20 ACTUAL: Utah 35 BYU 28

My pick: Appalachian State 35 Ohio 20 ACTUAL: Appalachian State 31 Ohio 29

My pick: Georgia State 34 San Jose State 10 ACTUAL: San Jose State 27 Georgia State 16

My pick: Arkansas State 42 Louisiana Tech 34 ACTUAL: Louisiana Tech 47 Arkansas State 28

My pick: Western Kentucky 45 South Florida 38 ACTUAL: Western Kentucky 45 South Florida 35

My pick: Utah State 34 Akron 27 ACTUAL: Akron 23 Utah State 21

My pick: Temple 23 Toledo 17 ACTUAL: Toledo 32 Temple 17

My pick: Northern Illinois 32 Boise State 26 ACTUAL: Boise State 55 Northern Illinois 7

My pick: Bowling Green 42 Georgia Southern 21 ACTUAL: Georgia Southern 58 Bowling Green 27

My pick: Western Michigan 27 Middle Tennessee 21 ACTUAL: Western Michigan 45 Middle Tennessee 31

My pick: San Diego State 31 Cincinnati 28 ACTUAL: San Diego 42 Cincinnati 7

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26

Foster Farms: UCLA (8-4) vs. Nebraska (5-7)

The Josh Rosen experiment appeared to go well, but there were times where he showed his freshman self. One thing is for sure: the Bruins' outlook for 2016 is bright. UCLA had no issues putting up points with a true freshman quarterback, but they can thank former 2 star Paul Perkins for a lot of their offensive production. Perkins was a stud at the beginning of the year while Rosen learned the offense, and he required teams to pack the box which opened up throwing lanes for Rosen. While UCLA comes into this game confident, the same can't be said for their opponents. Cornhusker fans knew the year would be long after they lost on a last second heave from a backup quarterback. Nebraska seemed to just be unlucky to begin the year, but never could right the ship. Somehow, they beat Michigan State and have been playing well in their final three games, but will that translate against UCLA?

My pick: UCLA 34 Nebraska 27

Independence:  Tulsa (6-6) vs. Virginia Tech (6-6)

If you watched VT's performance for Frank Beamer's last home game, you can expect to see the same effort in their bowl game. Beamer (above) is leaving college football after this year, and Memphis coach Justin Fuente will step in to fill Beamer's shoes. On the field, VT had a chance to begin the year with an upset of then #1 Ohio State. Brewer ended up breaking his collarbone and did not return, and the rest of that game is history. Brewer has since returned to give the offense a spark, and the defense is looking to get some momentum going into next year.  Tulsa's losses have come against all bowl eligible teams, but that doesn't give Hurricane's fans much. Dane Evans and Keyarris Garrett have been a bright spot for Tulsa this year, and Langer has rumbled for 17 scores (to put that in perspective, Dalvin Cook has 18 scores). Tulsa has shown it can score points under new head coach Philip Montgomery, but they haven't played a defense like the Hokies.

My pick: Virginia Tech 23 Tulsa 19

Pinstripe: Indiana (6-6) vs. Duke (7-5)

Don't mention to either school that they are basketball universities, because they can play some football too. As ESPN's Brian Bennett put it: "For Indiana's first trip to a bowl game since 2007 it will play ... another basketball school ... in a baseball stadium." I can't summarize this game any better than that. The whole UAB debacle with their football program has been good and bad. Everyone knows the bad, but the good is that some players received new opportunities to play elsewhere. Jordan Howard (above) has been a beast in the backfield to help complement Nate Sudfeld, and he wouldn't have had that opportunity if he were still at UAB. Some of Howard's teammates have done well elsewhere, but he's had the best year of anyone. For Duke, they may want to make sure they don't get the same refs from the Miami game. Ref and instant replay jokes aside, the Blue Devils shook off that loss on their way to seven wins. One player to watch it Max McCaffrey, whose brother just broke some records on the West coast at Stanford. 

My pick: Indiana 33 Duke 30

Heart of Dallas: Washington (6-6) vs. Southern Miss (9-4)

Southern Miss has not received nearly enough attention for what they accomplished this year. Largely forgotten around the nation, the Golden Eagles offense is not easily forgettable. Nick Mullens is one of the most impressive in the Group of 5, and has the stats to back that up. He has numerous offensive weapons to get the ball to as well, and has experience. Washington is the opposite, with their two leaders on offense being freshman. Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin (both pictured above) have been impressive this year. They don't get much press because of the conference they play in, but don't underestimate their abilities. A bowl win for Washington would be huge going into next year with their youth, while a win for Southern Miss would be equally satisfying. 

My pick: Washington 30 Southern Miss 27

Sun: Miami (8-4) vs. Washington State (8-4)

What effect will Mark Richt have on his new team for their bowl game? It's still hard to tell if the Canes will come out on fire or not. My guess is they will. Brad Kaaya needs a good stepping stone to launch him into a potential Heisman campaign next year. Kaaya hasn't made too many mistakes, but his team needs to step up and help him out. Their defense will experience something new: an opposing quarterback who throws more in one game than normal opponents do in a month. Wazzu's Luke Falk has been stellar taking over for Cougars legend Connor Halliday, and has limited his mistakes. Gabe Marks is his favorite target, but when you throw so much, everyone is a great target. This game will come down to which defense can figure out how to stop the opposition. Miami may get their swag back next year, but things don't look good against Falk and Co. 

My pick: Washington State 42 Miami 30

St. Pete: UConn (6-6) vs. Marshall (9-3)

UConn has been a surprise team this year, and Marshall has done their best to replace two stars on offense. Both teams are out to prove something, but only one will be able to. UConn surprised many by stunning Houston at home, and Marshall did their best to move on from the Rakeem Cato-Tommy Shuler era.  The Herd's Devon Johnson had a solid year last year, but his production fell off this year. Davonte Allen emerged from being the fourth/fifth option to being the go-to guy for Litton. UConn won't beat you by running up the score, and could be in trouble if Johnson or Allen go off against them. The Huskies defense is by far the best Marshall has seen all year, so getting those guys going could be a challenge. 

My pick: UConn 21 Marshall 20

MONDAY, DECEMBER 28

Quick Lane: Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Minnesota (5-7)

I could go on and on about the Gophers, but I'll start with the Chippewas. Central Michigan had a chance to make a bold statement at the beginning of the year against Oklahoma State. The offense stalled and the defense could only hold the Cowboys for so long. QB Cooper Rush is having another great year, and the offense has benefited greatly from his production. Minnesota has been.....below average to put it nicely. I'm not trying to be negative for my hometown team, I just want them to be better. For those that don't like all of the negativity: do you like losing?  If people are fine with going 6-6 or 5-7, why even have a team? My verdict of Tracy Claeys isn't finalized, but a loss to the Chippewas may cause that verdict to be decided prematurely. Claeys has made some decisions for his team that I am interested to see play out, and Minnesota can use a win to get a little momentum for 2016. Not that a minor bowl game is a must win, but for Minnesota it is. Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith will be solid, and KJ Maye might just have breakout game in his final game in a Gophers uniform.

My pick: Minnesota 23 Central Michigan 17

Military: Pitt (8-4) vs. #21 Navy (9-2)

This match-up is intriguing: Pat Narduzzi's tough Panther defense against Keenan Reynolds' (above) mastery of the triple option offense. Narduzzi has changed Pitt's identity in one year, and is looking for a win in his final game in year one. His tenure didn't start with flare or with much controversy, just losing two of his best offensive players. James Connor was lost for the season with an injury and Tyler Boyd was arrested, but Narduzzi had faith his team would be fine. Connor has been rehabbing, but now has to fight cancer (my thoughts and prayers go out to him during his recovery). Boyd came back with a purpose and along with leading the team in receiving, he was their second leading rusher. Navy's team only had one real "controversy" this year, and that was if their head coach was going to leave for BYU at the end of this year. Ken Niumatalolo decided he's staying with the Midshipmen after giving BYU a serious look, and that could provide a huge boost for this game. Keenan Reynolds has been getting recognition all year, and he would like nothing better than to end his season and career with a win. If Pitt can stop the triple option, they have the skill in the secondary to cover Navy's receivers. If Reynolds runs all over the Panthers' defense, Pitt is in for a long day.

My pick: Navy 21 Pitt 17

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29

Texas: #20 LSU (8-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

We all know the story this year for LSU: Leonard Fournette would run away with the Heisman and Brandon Harris' development would lead them to the playoff. That all changed when the Tigers ran into Alabama, and they haven't been the same since. The loss to the Tide was one of three straight losses before ending the year with a struggle against Texas A&M which they won 19-7. Texas Tech as they got worked by Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia before finishing with two win over Kansas State and Texas. All of that is in the past, and each team could use a win to help bring excitement back to their campus for next year. Many of each team's players will return next year, so this game has big implications. Watch for Leonard Fournette to get his 2016 Heisman campaign to start against the Red Raiders' 125th ranked rush defense.

My pick: LSU 30 Texas Tech 21

Arizona: Nevada (6-6) vs. Colorado State (7-5)

Colorado State lost arguably its best quarterback in school history in Greyson Lambert. Moving on from his production was difficult, but Rashard Higgins did everything in his power to make Nick Stevens comfortable. So far, the transition has been fairly smooth. Mike Bobo is looking to end his first year as a Ram on a high note, but Nevada is looking to ruin that opportunity. Nevada finished the year with two losses, so any momentum they once had has diminished. Their offense has struggled outside of giving James Butler the ball, and their defense has a hard time slowing down opposing offenses. It comes down to coaching, and Bobo has done a better job overall.

My pick: Colorado State 28 Nevada 21

Russell Athletic: #10 North Carolina (11-2) vs. #17 Baylor (9-3)

Baylor's season went from promising to disastrous very quickly. Russell went down with a neck injury and Jarrett Stidham stepped in. Stidham got hurt and former quarterback turned wide receiver Chris Johnson played. Then Johnson was hurt and actual wide receiver Lynx Hawthorne had to play significant time at quarterback in the final game. To say the offensive production decreased would be an understatement. Corey Coleman hasn't score a touchdown in, well, a very long time. Shock Linwood has had issues finding holes to run through and the Bears are just hoping it doesn't rain. North Carolina's season was derailed after game one. A loss to South Carolina ruined any chances they had of making the playoffs, but mostly caused Tar Heel fans to scratch their heads harder. When Marquise Williams makes good decisions and doesn't force things, UNC is dangerous. Ryan Switzer (above) could be an X-factor in this game with his skills at receiver and returner. Larry Fedora and his team won't tell you the refs cost them a chance to be considered for the playoff, but they are out to prove they belonged. With Baylor banged up (Coleman, Linwood, and Stidham will not play), it's difficult to picture this not being a Tar Heel win. Baylor's been on the good end of some blowouts, but now they will understand their opponents usually feel. This hurts me just to put this score on record, but I just don't know how Baylor's offense can do anything now.

My pick: North Carolina 45 Baylor 20

Armed Forces: Cal (7-5) vs. Air Force (8-5)

My, how quickly the Golden Bears crumbled. Cal was ranked 23rd and had a chance to move to 6-0 with a win over then #5 Utah. Jared Goff threw five picks and the Bears went on to lose the next three games as well. It's not that the offense isn't putting up points, it's that the defense can't seem to stop anyone. Now they have to face an Air Force team that will confuse you with the triple option. If Cal expects to win, Goff needs to throw 10 touchdowns. Okay maybe not that ridiculous, but Goff needs to have a big day if Cal wants to feel comfortable. Air Force has been a surprise this year and looks to finish an impressive season in a positive manner. If Goff struggles against the Falcons defense, you can bet Weston Steelhammer will be involved. Steelhammer does everything on defense and is always making or near a play. Will Goff be focused on this game that means little to him or focused on his future in the NFL? 

My pick: Cal 44 Air Force 28

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30

Holiday: #25 USC (8-5) vs. Wisconsin (9-3)

Both teams were projected in the preseason to win their divisions and conferences by various media outlets. One of them won their division and neither won their conference. Record-wise Wisconsin had the better year, but USC knows that means nothing. The Trojans have lost to three ranked teams (one twice) and an up and coming Washington team, while the Badgers have lost to two top five teams and another top 25 team. Cody Kessler is playing in his last game, so he will be locked in and focused on the task at hand. Wisconsin's defense (above) will make things difficult for Ronald Jones II, so Juju Smith-Schuster is going to have to force the Badgers to double him. Wisconsin's defense is underrated, but they will show you why they are one of the best in the nation.

My pick: Wisconsin 23 USC 17

Music City: Texas A&M (8-4) vs. Louisville (7-5)

If Texas A&M had one quarterback, just one, that didn't transfer. But they don't, so this game becomes very difficult to pick. The Aggies are in turmoil and the future of Kevin Sumlin is up in the air. Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray are both transferring and have stated various reasons for their decisions, but it seems like these issues have been ongoing throughout the year. Tra Carson and Christian Kirk are going to have to find ways to help the offense score, but that may not be enough against Bobby Petrino's squad. 

My pick: Louisville 26 Texas A&M 21

Belk: NC State (7-5) vs. Mississippi State (8-4)

Jacoby Brissett has been a nice story to follow after his transfer from Florida, adding to the list of recent Gator transfers to find success at other schools (Tyler Murphy at Boston College and Jeff Driskell at Louisiana Tech). Brissett has been able to limit his turnovers and keep plays alive with his legs, which is something that he will need to do again in this game. The only problem is the Wolfpack's best win came against Syracuse. Mississippi State's talent level far and away surpasses Syracuse, and the best talent that will talk the field is Dak Prescott. Prescott (above) has been stellar all year, and he has put up his numbers against SEC defenses. Dak is not the reason the Bulldogs have four losses, but he is the reason they have eight wins. I will say it one last time, put Dak on any other team and that team becomes instantly better. Imagine some competitive teams with Prescott like Florida, Stanford, and Florida State. Those teams would excel offensively substantially more than they did this year, but I digress. North Carolina State hasn't seen anyone like Prescott, and they've played against Deshaun Watson and Marquise Williams. How do you stop a quarterback who weights 229 pounds, one that can run  you over and beat you through the air with precision passing? The Wolfpack will try, but there is little hope they will succeed.

My pick: Mississippi State 35 North Carolina State 24

Birmingham: Auburn (6-6) vs. Memphis (9-3)

I'm shocked that Auburn made it to a bowl game. Ok maybe not shocked, but definitely surprised. Gus Malzahn has salvaged an up and down season, but will be on the hot seat next year. He may also want to thank Idaho for agreeing to be on their schedule to give them a bowl birth. Jeremy Johnson is back as starting quarterback after losing his job to Sean White, and he will need to play well for Auburn fans to feel comfortable going into next year. Memphis comes into this game with disappointment too, but theirs is from letting a playoff chance slip away. Memphis went from playoff contender to three loss team in three weeks, and proceeded to destroy SMU to end the season. The Tigers defense has been suspect all year, but should step up in Paxton Lynch's final game. Lynch has thrown 28 touchdowns and only an astounding 3 interceptions, which has helped his draft stock. Memphis has already beat an SEC team this year that is far superior to Auburn (Ole Miss) and look to remain undefeated against the SEC this season.

My pick: Memphis 45 Auburn 31

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31

Peach: #18 Houston (12-1) vs. #9 Florida State (10-2)

Houston has been outstanding all year minus one game. The Cougars under Tom Herman have excelled offensively and improved defensively, but they have never faced a team like Florida State. Dalvin Cook will be the best player on the field, no question. Cook has carried his team all year with a quarterback controversy, and almost ran his way into the Heisman conversation. The Seminoles defense is finally coming together at the right time, which could present issues for the Cougars. There are multiple NFL draft picks on the Seminoles defense, and they will show you why they are projected to play pro ball. Herman must, and most likely will, find away to combat all of that talent to put points on the board. This isn't a playoff game, but it will certainly feel like it.

My pick: Florida State 28 Houston 27

Orange (Semifinal): #1 Clemson (13-0) vs. #4 Oklahoma (11-1)

As if bowl games weren't hard enough to pick. Oklahoma has every reason to be the most focused team for a semifinal game this year. They were left for dead after losing to Texas, their star quarterback was snubbed a finalist spot for the Heisman, and they got destroyed against Clemson in their bowl game last year. If any player on the Sooners' roster needs more motivation, they should be left home. OU isn't the only team with motivation though. Clemson has been disrespected because of its "weak" conference and they are expected to lose because "Clemsoning" is apparently a thing. Both teams have reasons to be fired up to win outside of playing for a national championship. Flip a coin for these two semifinal games and you would have a better chance at guessing who will win. Clemson is undefeated, but Oklahoma has been playing better to end the season. I can go either way on this one, but I'm sticking with my gut and Dabo Swinney.

My pick: Clemson 35 Oklahoma 28

Cotton (Semifianl): #2 Alabama (12-1) vs. #3 Michigan State (12-1)

According to many analysts, this game is one-sided. Big Ten Analysts think the Spartans will win, but they are the only ones. Ask any other analyst and a large majority will tell you that Michigan State has no chance of winning. The Spartans like that. They have been doubted all year, but yet here they are. Put into stressful situations, Michigan State has responded in adversity to make their way into the playoff. Michigan had them beat, but a muffed punt lead to a return for the win. Nebraska beat them, but the Spartans responded by beating Ohio State on a last second field goal on the road. Iowa completed the biggest pass of the game and had all the momentum, but Michigan State used a 9:04 drive capped by an LJ Scott touchdown to go ahead and win the Big Ten Championship. No one outside of East Lansing has projected them to be in this situation. Alabama was projected and expected to be here. Nick Saban (above) is 8-0 against his assistants, but Mark Dantonio is looking to add a loss to that record. For those who think Alabama is going to run away with this game, think again. The Big Ten has been mocked most of the year, but is proving that it can compete with anyone in the nation. However, there is one question that needs to be answered: can Michigan State stop Derrick Henry?

My pick: Alabama 20 Michigan State 17

College Football

Weekly Preview

---

Written by

Joey Broback

UWEC alum. College football enthusiast from the State of Hockey.

A State of Gameday

Saturday isn't a state of mind, it's a State of Gameday! Follow me on Twitter @joey_broback

---