An opportunity for a thief

I am noticing an interesting opportunity this season. And oddly enough it comes from Kansas City, Missouri. Specifically their baseball team. I know.

This offseason when they signed Terrance Gore to a MLB contract I noticed and thought that it was very odd. There was absolutely no reason that Gore needed an MLB contract. He isn't even a good MILB player. He is the man of 63 MB games, 16 ABs, 1 hit and 1 walk. It's no secret that he does have one outstanding skill: he is 27 of 31 on the bases. He has never been thrown out more than 8 times in a professional season. That year he attempted 76 stolen bases.

Ok, so he is great at stealing bases. He is not, however, great at getting on first. To go back to my first point, it would be astounding to me if teams were competing so much for his services as to require an MLB contract. So why did he get one? Well, that I can't really answer. But, I am going to whole heartedly speculate. I think the Royals had targeted him specifically, No. Not him. His one redeeming skill. They wanted that skill so bad they said, "shoot, give him the million". And just as valuable, the 40 man spot. I know a million dollar contract isn't much in MLB these days, but this is a significant investment for this individual player.

The royals have no intention of competing this season. They know that. Their fans know that. Rebuilding sucks, for everyone involved I would suspect. But, what if you could make is suck just a little less. And still lose enough to get the draft picks that let you build. Think of the Detroit Tigers of 2018. They are a rebuilding team. They have traded most players of any value over the last two years. Those remaining are really expensive, flawed or boring. Boring is the worst. Even good teams with boring players can suck the life out of you to watch night after night. What are the Tigers, the modern day Tigers, known for? Just rebuilding. And being boring. And having a future HOFer on their payroll. That's it. Shoot, they aren't even know as the worst team in their league. The Orioles take that crown. Bad and boring, but mostly just boring.

I think the Royals have identified a way to give their team an identity. On the cheap. And still be bad enough to lose. And, I will give them the benefit of the doubt on this, run an experiment that a contending team can't risk running. The Royals have decided to build a track team. Or at least a 1980s baseball team. Why? Well, stolen bases are exciting. Strategy-wise, they have their downside. A runner on first is more likely to score than a runner thrown out at second. But, fans respond to stolen bases in a positive way generally.

Stolen bases are extremely cheap, if, IF, that is the only skillset you are buying. Billy Hamilton: 5.25, Chris Owings: 3, Gore: .65. About 9 million in FA signings. Players already rostered: Whit Merrifield: 1, Adalberto Mondesi: .550, Brian Goodwin: .550, Brett Phillips: MILB deal. Another 2 million. For about 11 million dollars they paying for 7 players, 6 of which may start on the same night, potentially often. they may have the least amount of money invested in their hitters of any team in MLB this year, but they may be able to do so without being boring.

Do stolen bases win games? I don't know. I doubt it. Most of the time anyway. I would need some better data to show me how often a stolen base directly results in a run. Herein lies the experiment. What if they do result in runs? Well, if they do, the Royals may get to be exciting and winning. Again, I have my doubts, but we have seen this model work before, granted, it has been 30 plus years. Speed wasn't the only factor there though; speed plus hitting and defense. Do the Royals have enough of the later two. Maybe defense. Hitting though, ehhh....Yeah. I mean, if Brett Phillips turns into what he was thought to be as a Houston prospect, that would help. If Chris Owings can get on base at a .330 clip. Same with Hamilton. And that's just the bare minimum. If all of that happens and nothing else, this is still a bad team. You also need somebody to take a step, shoot, maybe two, forward. But the Royals are going forward with the speed kills strategy. And Maybe it works. Maybe they is such a small number of stolen base attempts in todays game that they have realized stopping them has taken a strategic back seat. I don't know. But I am curious how a team that attempts to steal significantly more than any other preforms.

If you need stolen bases this season, shoot who won't, I wouldn't be against looking at this team. Merrifield is a bonafide stud and should be a star. Mondesi is rising and caught some eyes in the second half last year. Hamilton is what he is. Great. Now save your last pick and grab Chris Owings. He will play everywhere and everyday according to Ned Yost. Take Phillips and hope he wins the job. Take Gore and bank on a stolen base when he enters the game. The team is looking for the gimmick and signed the team to have it. They will run. I mean every time. I mean E-V-E-R-Y T-I-M-E they get on base this year. Gore will set his personal best stolen base attempts at the MLB level. So will Owings. So will Merrifield. So will Hamilton. I actually think it might be worth investing in Hamilton again. I don't think he will hit any better, but I do think the volume will be there to somewhat overcome his flaws as a hitter. I think we will see a team with at least five players with 20 stolen bases. We might see five with 30.

Even if this team loses 100 games, and I think that's a definite possibility, they will have an identity. The Running Royals. The Kaufman Kruisers. The Kings of Thieves. That gives their fans something. That gives them some attention on Sports Center. That adds a new niche to MLB. There are still fans, especially older fans that pine for the days that stolen bases were a regular, mainstream strategy. This team may, could, might appeal to them. And I think it's cool that the Royals are going to give it a shot. Is it gimmicky? Maybe, but I would rather have a gimmick, than just a bad team. Sorry Orioles fans.