NFC Championship Preview and Prediction

The NFC Championship this Sunday between the Packers and Falcons may very well be one of the highest scoring playoff games we’ll ever see. Both teams feature high powered offenses with shaky defenses, and have elite quarterbacks playing at an unbelievable level. Let’s take a look at the 3 keys to victory for each side, and we’ll finish with our prediction.

Green Bay:

1) Protect Aaron Rodgers- Sounds easy right? Right now protecting Rodgers is far and away the most important thing the Packers need to do. Rodgers is playing at as high of a level right now as any quarterback has in history, and if he has time he will pick apart Atlanta’s defense. The thing that makes Rodgers so dangerous is his ability to extend plays with his mobility. Atlanta is extremely fast and athletic on defense, and Green Bay is a little banged up on the offensive line, so it may be up to Rodgers to work his magic again. If he has time to throw, Green Bay will put up 30+ points.

2) Tackle well- Again, sounds easy right? Atlanta can absolutely crush opponents with their ability to make tacklers miss. Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Taylor Gabriel and all dangerous with the ball in their hands and if the Green Bay corners and safeties aren’t tackling well, they will pay the price. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are also very dangerous with the ball in their hands, and Green Bay’s linebackers especially with have their hands full getting them on the ground. If they are able to fall forward for a couple extra yards run after run all day, it will make a big difference for Atlanta’s offense.

3) Win field position game- Three easy keys to victory, isn’t it? It’s in the simplest of things that Atlanta makes opponents pay. Atlanta has been one of the best all year at winning the field position game which greatly benefits their offense. They very rarely go 3 and out, so even when they are forced to punt, they often move the ball well enough to be able to pin their opponent deep in their own territory. Green Bay struggled to get things going on offense against Dallas when Dallas was able to pin them deep, so they will have to make sure to get good field position against Atlanta to benefit Rodgers and the offense.

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Atlanta:

1) Big day for the backs- Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are extremely tough to match up against. Both run the ball extremely well and are also capable of splitting out as a wide receiver and running routes like it is their natural position. Green Bay doesn’t have the type of cover linebackers that will be able to handle them out wide, so Green Bay may be forced to drop their safeties down to cover them when split out wide. This will open up 1 on 1 matchups on the outside against Green Bay’s shaky secondary, and Matt Ryan could exploit those matchups if they are to happen.

2) Start fast- Dallas spotted Green Bay an 18-point lead in the first quarter and a half of the game, and nearly came back to win the game. Atlanta can’t afford to do the same because it will likely lead to the same outcome. If Atlanta manages to go shot for shot with Green Bay early, they may be able to pull away in the 2nd half. Green Bay plays a style that could wear them down throughout the game with the way they constantly extend plays. We saw them slow down significantly in the 2nd half against Dallas as the line started to wear down and the pressure was able to start getting home. It will be crucial for Atlanta to start quick so they don’t allow the Packers to just take a big lead and hold on for dear life.

3) Make Green Bay one dimensional- Green Bay has struggled to run the ball all season, but in the games they were able to get rolling by running the ball they were nearly unstoppable. Atlanta must stop Ty Montgomery from getting going. It sounds dangerous to say you want to put the ball in Rodgers hands on every play, but the fact is this actually makes it easier for the defense. As incredible as Rodgers is, if the Falcons know he will be forced to pass on every play, it will be easier to make adjustments and to get after Rodgers. If a pass rusher like Vic Beasley can just pin his ears back and go after Rodgers, he is tough to stop, while he could be exposed against the run.

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Prediction: This game is extremely tough to pick. Rodgers is red hot coming off 8 straight wins and unprecedented level quarterback play, but believe it or not, Ryan has been equally as impressive during the same span, albeit with less publicity. The Falcons are coming off 5 wins of their own and just dismantled the Seahawks defense last week, which in fairness is not the same as they have been in past years, but are still a much more talented defense than they will face against Green Bay. This one could be a track meet where the first to 40 wins. One thing for sure is that it will be an exciting game to watch because there will be no shortage of offense.

Final Score: Atlanta 41 Green Bay 38

We'll have the AFC full breakdown for you tomorrow, so stay tuned. Who do you think is going to win? Comment and let us know! Stay tuned for more current sports stories. Don't forget to follow us on social media. You can find us on Facebook, Instagram @beyondthemetrics, and Twitter @byondthemetrics