Does the Success of the Phillies Rebuild Lie in the Hands of Rhys Hoskins?
For Philadelphia Phillies fans there was not much to watch last season, finishing tied for the leagues second worst record, the Phillies are far from the success which they saw in the last decade. However, some of the fruits of their suffering are finally showing their roots, and the Phillies faithful in only 50 games were able to catch a glimpse of the future. Philadelphia has been busy this off-season trying to re-craft this roster adding slugger Carlos Santana to a young roster which is in need of winning-minded leadership. The signing of Santana also marks a firm decision in the future of Phillies soon to be left fielder Rhys Hoskins. While 50 games are nowhere near enough to evaluate a player, the glimpse which he provided air into the lungs of this rebuild. If the Phillies are going to return to glory and compete with the likes of the Cubs, Nationals, Cardinals, and Dodgers then players like Rhys Hoskins will need to mature into the high expectations which they bring.
What's the Hype?
Hoskins is a high on-base type player and he is already receiving a number of promising comparisons such as Daniel Murphy, Matt Carpenter, and Justin Turner. All of those are great names to be compared to, and that should really inspire some hope for Phillies fans about the ceiling he could hit. One thing does differ however, Hoskins has much better power than these three. In only 50 games, Hoskins hit 18 home runs and drove in 48 runs. His OBP was a phenomenal .396 and his OPS was a stellar 1.014. In those 50 games, he posted a 2.2 WAR. So for Philadelphia, there is definitely room for hope.
Scouting Hoskins
Hoskins looks like he is going to be a special hitter, but his defense does not grade out well at all. If Hoskins is going to have a long career it will be by the merit's of his bat and not is glove. He has plus power, and he can pull the ball well, and his swing allows him to elevate the ball well. His biggest hitting weakness is on the outer part of the plate. One of the major concerns around Hoskins is whether or not he is going to be able to adjust to the big league breaking ball. He's not an athletic freak, but has the most of a promising player. His bat grades moving away from first, but he has a lot of potential.
No So Fast
Early projects have Hoskins plain flattening a little, but they are looking at him as a 30+ home run guy driving in 100+. They see his OBP reaching mortal levels around .355 and finishing his first season as a + player. However, these are just projections, Phillies fans don't have to look too far to see how expectations can be far from reality. Maikel Franco was supposed to be a big power guy and progress, but in his age 24 season we saw Franco's power remain steady, and his OBP tank, his OPS fell below .700, and his WAR made him a - player. Maybe a bit of a sophomore slump with 2017 being his second full season, but Franco's expectations were far from the reality. Franco only 24 has plenty of time to change his trajectory, but he is a perfect example of the struggles of a rebuild. Hopefully, his struggles and potential rebound can instill a sense of patience into the Phillies faithful to watch this group grow into the group they could become.
A New Hope
While there is a risk in very rebuild the Phillies have a number of pieces which can set them on a course to be competitive for a while, but it will take patience and strong development. For every success story of a rebuild, we see an equally disappointing fall. However, Hoskins simply looks like a player who has the pedigree to be a solid performer and a cornerstone of this Phillies rebuild. He's a mature hitter who has the build which has proven valuable to any franchise. When I look at recent successful rebuilds it all started with that one guy and the wave followed. While I don't think Hoskins will reach the value of Anthony Rizzo, and am not comparing the two, he will likely be one tier lower which is still a great player, but when Rizzo joined the Cubs it changed the trajectory. His presence showed what they wanted to be, it established a leader and a face to the franchise. Again, I don't think he will be quite a Rizzo, but he has a chance to be the leader, the trailblazer, and the guy they build around. If the Phillies rebuild is going to be a success it's all going to start with the success of a guy like Hoskins to get things started. While 50 games is no where near enough to judge a player, the first 50 have looked good thus far.
