Week 11 NFL Picks - It's Not Fair
Week 10 is in the books, welcome to week 11 of the NFL season! Things are starting to get serious for a lot of teams, and things are continuing to fall apart for others. I think multiple teams will have "Eli Face" games this week. The contenders of the NFL are beginning their push for top playoff seeds while bottom-dwellers have the opportunity to play spoiler. Matchups across the board this week have the potential to be blowouts, but in favor of what teams? We continued our hot streak of winning weeks after going 10-4 in week 10 picks. We're shooting for 14-0 in week 11. I want a perfect record at some point! Let's get into the picks!
Bye Weeks: Carolina Panthers (7-3), Indianapolis Colts (3-7), New York Jets (4-6), San Francisco 49ers (1-9)
Tennessee Titans (6-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) (Thursday, 8:25 PM ET)
Thinking logically, I should be picking the Steelers in this one. Their offense is better, their defense is better and the overall talent is significantly higher than that of Tennessee. Naturally, I'm going against common sense by picking the Titans. Pittsburgh scared me last week against the Colts and Tennessee needs this win more than the Steelers do. Tennessee pulls off the upset of the week.
The Pick: Titans 27, Steelers 23
Detroit Lions (5-4) @ Chicago Bears (3-6) (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Detroit needs to keep the momentum going and in a very stacked NFC, can't afford to lose games like this one. Mitch Trubisky has been improving, but it won't be enough to beat Matthew Stafford and the dangerous Lions passing attack. Detroit wins big in Chicago.
The Pick: Lions 34, Bears 19
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3) @ Cleveland Browns (0-9) (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Jacksonville didn't look good last week. I'm glad we got that out of the way. They can afford to have another off game vs. the Browns (because they'll still win). In an effort to keep pace with the Titans, Blake Bortles will take his own advice and throw to his own team as much as he can. DeShone Kizer, meet the Jags' D.
The Pick: Jaguars 21, Browns 13
Baltimore Ravens (4-5) @ Green Bay Packers (5-4) (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Brett Hundley did enough last week (212 yards, 1 TD) to convince me he can play mediocre teams and give his team a chance to win. Baltimore seems like less of a playoff team than Green Bay. With Aaron Rodgers' potential return looming, Hundley needs to win games like this one to give the Packers a chance at reaching the postseason. How much longer does Joe Flacco have to play poorly before he gets benched in Baltimore? I say three weeks.
The Pick: Packers 24, Ravens 17
Arizona Cardinals (4-5) @ Houston Texans (3-6) (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Drew Stanton is better than Tom Savage and the Arizona has a better defense than Houston at this point in time. Houston is really missing DeShaun Watson right now. What began as something special has quickly turned into a disastrous season in H-Town. It won't be pretty, but the 'Cards will get the win on the road.
The Pick: Cardinals 17, Texans 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) @ Miami Dolphins (4-5) (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Tampa Bay is a bad football team. I don't like saying it and I don't want to but after nine games, it's evident. Miami is perhaps the most inconsistent team in the NFL. They had a bad game last week, so they should bounce back and look like one of the best teams in the league this week. Stay away from this game if you can.
The Pick: Dolphins 34, Buccaneers 14
Los Angeles Rams (7-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (7-2) (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
This might be the game of the week. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the league and Case Keenum has been a very pleasant surprise. I think this is the week he has an off game, triggering the questions about whether it's time to put Teddy Bridgewater back on the field. Los Angeles has worked all season for this moment. With the brutal part of their schedule here, the Rams are going to make a statement.
The Pick: Rams 27, Vikings 17
Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) @ New York Giants (1-8) (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
If you want to watch a blowout, watch this game. Otherwise, it's not worth it. Andy Reid is one of the best ever coming off a bye week and his team is now healthy, rested and prepared. This is not going to be a good game for New York. Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt should tear this defense apart and Eli Manning could be picked off multiple times.
The Pick: Chiefs 41, Giants 14
Washington Redskins (4-5) @ New Orleans Saints (7-2) (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Washington will look to end New Orleans' winning streak at seven games this Sunday at 1:00 PM. Unfortunately for the Redskins, a solid run defense is not going to be enough to stop Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The Saints have been running wild and playing great defense these past few weeks, and I think it'll continue on Sunday. Kirk Cousins will move the ball down the field, but in a losing effort.
The Pick: Saints 31, Redskins 20
Buffalo Bills (5-4) @ Los Angeles Chargers (3-6) (Sunday, 4:05 PM ET)
Buffalo is throwing rookie Nathan Peterman under center this Sunday instead of veteran Tyrod Taylor. I don't quite understand the move, but I'll roll with it. Philip Rivers looks like he'll play Sunday but in a desperate effort to keeps its playoff hopes alive, Buffalo will rally around its rookie QB and steal a win in LA.
The Pick: Bills 24, Chargers 21
Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) @ Denver Broncos (3-6) (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
A battle of two teams that came into the year with high expectations, only to let down the entire NFL. Denver has got to get back on track at some point, right? Brock Osweiler will lead Denver to a win this Sunday at home. Let me rephrase that, Brock Osweiler won't lose the game this week for Denver. That sounds more like it. Expect a low-scoring contest, one in which the Broncos' defense sets them apart from Cincy.
The Pick: Broncos 17, Bengals 14
New England Patriots (7-2) @ Oakland Raiders (4-5) (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
Oakland needs this win a lot more than New England, and this game is a home contest for them. The Patriots are just so damn good. Derek Carr will be able to put up points against the Pats' D but due to New England's defense steadily improving, I trust their unit way more than Oakland's. Tom Brady and Derek Carr will both have good games, but the Pats have the edge of the defensive side of the ball - and it's not even close.
The Pick: Patriots 34, Raiders 28
Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-4) (Sunday, 8:30 PM ET)
With Ezekiel Elliot, I might have picked the Cowboys in this one. Without him, forget about it. The Eagles are way too good to let Dallas win this game. It would be a monumental victory for "America's Team," but it's simply not going to happen. It'll be closer than most expect, but the end winner will be the team everyone picked.
The Pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20
Atlanta Falcons (5-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-3) (Monday, 8:30 PM ET)
Atlanta needs a win not only in order to keep pace in the NFC South, but in the playoff race itself. Seattle is attempting to stay within a game of the Rams in the NFC West, doing so without Richard Sherman for the rest of the season. Matt Ryan will have an off game and Russell Wilson will expose this Atlanta defense. This will be a fun Monday night matchup to watch... if you're a Seahawks fan.
The Pick: Seahawks 37, Falcons 24
That's it for this week's picks! I hope you're ready for yet another exciting week of NFL football! Here's to your team picking up a win this week.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is your reminder to put your Best Foot(e) Forward in everything you do today! Always do the right thing and be the best possible version of yourself every day.
As always, if you'd like to get in touch with me or follow my social media accounts, you can find them here:
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheBestFooteForward
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheBestFooteFWD
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thebestfooteforward
Email: [email protected]
If anyone is looking for fantastic bye-week analysis about who's favored to win coming off a bye or when facing someone coming off a bye: I encourage you to check out http://cheatsheetwarroom.com/fantasy-football/nfl/bye-weeks.aspx. This is my friend Brad's website. He has some amazing bye-week infographics with tons of helpful information on them. With 4 teams on bye this week, this is a great resource for all bye information. Perfect for picks. Feel free to check it out. You can contact Brad at [email protected]. Let him know what you think!
