The Obstructed College Football Playoff & New Year's Six Prediction
Over the course of the last 5 weeks I have put out previews with the major conferences. And what I am going to do is use the previews and predictions to help out. So while I put up the links for the power 5 conferences, I will somewhat sum up each of them or if you want detail, click the conference name that is underlined.
ACC: While the hype surrounds Florida State and Clemson (again) keep an eye for the Coastal Division to make leaps to continue, notably Virginia Tech. They are a school that could be a major sleeper in the conference and nationally. And if they get to the ACC Championship again, don't count them out against, the Noles or the Tigers.
SEC: While the SEC has questions among the other contenders like Auburn, LSU, Georgia, and Florida, Alabama seems loaded once again for another SEC Championship and a national one. The question will be can anybody in the conference match up with the Tide? Only ones close may be LSU and Auburn right now.
BIG TEN: Last year the conference boasted having a power punch of 4 top 10 teams (Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin), but the rest outside of Nebraska was fairly weak. Can the Huskers or Northwestern step up in the West while Michigan State regains their footing and make it another Big Ten East powerhouse again?
PAC-12: Don't sleep on the left coast conference this year. USC and Washington could be playing in the conference championship with Playoff implications and can possibly be one of the final 2 this year. However, Oregon, Washington State, and Stanford may have something to say about that.
BIG 12: Oklahoma may not clean sweep the conference this year and Kansas State will take that step forward, but in the end the Sooners will remain kings. Oklahoma State may also be huge factor. Texas will get things going too while the rest remain fairly mediocre.
As for the "Other 5," the best team out there may be USF and may have an argument by season's end of them being in the playoff if they could end up 13-0 while the other powers go 12-1. But not sure if they will hit 13-0 however. Navy will have an argument too. Or will it be another MAC school or maybe the first Sun Belt school with Appalachian State crashing the New Year's Party?
So I am just going to do the New Year's Six Bowl games bit as it is fairly easy compared to figuring out with all the mathematical issues of whether the ACC or the Big Ten gets the Taxslayer Bowl. I'll leave it to the college experts on ESPN and Fox Sports for that. I am just going by what I take. And I admit, I am no expert, but I did technically get the national championship game right and the winner of the game (though way off UCLA in the Playoff last year so that goes to show how I am with that).
NEW YEAR'S SIX BOWLS:
CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL: AUBURN VS. USF: I figure USF by process of the committee rank would be ahead of Appalachian State (yes, I think they are going to be that competitive) and Navy (in part because the Bulls would win the American) and would get the berth. Auburn will have a strong year, though those road tilts in Clemson and LSU may ultimately doom them from a playoff chance. IF this game happens, it could be a high-scoring affair with teams putting up a lot of points. But I think in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium the crowd will be overwhelmingly for Auburn (about a 2 hour drive from Atlanta) and it will just win over as the Tigers pull away late. AND IF the Tigers stun Alabama in the Iron Bowl but don't go to the SEC Championship, they may be the actual favorites in the SEC in 2018. MY PREDICTION: AUBURN 42, USF 31
COTTON BOWL: MICHIGAN VS. OKLAHOMA: The storyline by then if this happens is that if Oklahoma gets snubbed again, Sooner fans may be screaming at the top of their lungs to join the SEC or the PAC-12 as they will feel the competition in their own conference is holding them back, which is true. IF this game happens, and if Michigan has a similar vibe like Auburn as in beating their arch nemesis in the last week but still not see a conference championship, the Wolverines may be on a huge high going into Dallas while Oklahoma may feel what do they have to do to win the whole thing if they get snubbed again. It may be advantage Wolverines and it may be the lines that decide the game. That may happen here with Michigan and Oklahoma if they go at it. MY PREDICTION: MICHIGAN 35, OKLAHOMA 31
FIESTA BOWL: LSU VS. WASHINGTON: This one will be intriguing in the sense of how will both teams handle it not winning the conference? LSU by then may shake it off if their lone blemish is Alabama and will feel like they should be considered for a national title too. Washington if they lose a heartbreaker to USC in the PAC-12 may feel sick more than opposed to wanting redemption. The key question will be though is will LSU have enough offense in the air to compete. It is what got Les Miles fired and why Ed Orgeron lost to Florida and Alabama by putting up a total of 10 points in 2 games. Washington proved they were a defensively stout team last year and not much will change this year in that aspect. So it may be one of those games that the Tigers will have to grind it out to win. But if Derrius Guice follows Leonard Fournette's footsteps and chooses not to play to keep from a possible injury if he leaves for the NFL, then LSU will have massive problems. And I think he does sit out. MY PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 20, LSU 10
ORANGE BOWL: OHIO STATE VS. FLORIDA STATE: Ohio State may suffer the same fate as Alabama of possibly losing the final regular season game, but it unlike Alabama, it may be very costly in the end of possibly not taking a trip to Indy. And I don't think last year will repeat itself. Florida State normally gets rolling as the season progresses, but I am just not sold on the defense. It isn't the players, but the schemes that worry me. I think IF this game happens, the Noles may struggle going against the more physical players of the Buckeyes and Urban Meyer may want to punish the Noles in more than a few ways. It will just depend if JT Barrett plays up to snuff. But I do think Ohio State will control the offense in this game. MY PREDICTION: OHIO STATE 37, FLORIDA STATE 34
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF: PREDICTION
SUGAR BOWL: #4 VIRGINIA TECH VS. #1 ALABAMA: Yes, you heard me right. Virginia Tech in the Playoff. It could be my UCLA pick from last year. But I am not going to say "bank it" like certain Fox Sports personalities would do. Now if this does pan out and you go "well, Alabama should cruise on the Hokies," I wouldn't agree to that. If the Tide struggles with Auburn and the Hokies have a strong offense, Justin Fuente will try to make life miserable on the Tide's defense and have some tricks up his sleeve that will keep Bama honest. However, Alabama's offense, while they will never look like the Oregon days of Mariota & co, or the Sooners teams, is becoming an impossible team to defend if they use whatever kind of offense they want to use that day. It may be that game where Saban opens his bag of tricks and does some interesting things just to keep the Hokies off balanced. I think this will be a fight, but I think in the end, Bama wins out with just the overall talent and honestly, the one loss (if Bama has it and to Auburn) may be the best thing to happen to them. MY PREDICTION: ALABAMA 31, VIRGINIA TECH 21
ROSE BOWL: #3 PENN STATE VS. #2 USC: A rematch of last year's bowl game? Why not? I think the Trojans, despite not returning many on the offensive side will be fine. The reasoning of course is Sam Darnold. Penn State practically brings everybody on the offensive side back while both sides bring the same amount back on defense. It may be another classic game with both those two if this happens with storylines of Penn State wanting that revenge (while playing it down) while USC believes they are back in the saddle. By all accounts, Penn State should have won the game last year, but they blew it late obviously. But I think the Lions are going to be more experienced now on both sides and it may, just may take the Lions ahead on this, especially if the defense in the secondary (John Reid) is healthy and can fend off any takeover from Darnold. Most of the year I penned USC to win this, but for some reason today, I don't have the same feeling like I did even a few days ago. I just like Penn State's chances this year compared to last year. I can see this game going either way though. MY PREDICTION: PENN STATE 41, USC 37
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: #3 PENN STATE VS. #1 ALABAMA: Again, the road would not be easy for the Tide to take a 4th national championship in 7 years. And Penn State has a dual threat QB in Trace McSorley that could give Alabama fits, like Clemson did with Watson, Auburn with Newton/Marshall, Texas A&M did with Manziel. And unlike those guys, McSorley has weapons all over which could create havoc on the Tide defense. However, Alabama could really have a great chance to run the ball strongly and try to keep the Nittany Lions off the field as much as possible after last year's time of possession dominance by Clemson. If the Tide can get a rhythm on Penn State's defense, which I think they can, Alabama shouldn't worry too much. One other thing that may be a factor is the site as Alabama has recently done great in Atlanta in part because it is near and can pack the place, even though there will be plenty of Nittany Lions fans. I think it may be an attrition game to see who is going to be less winded by the end. This is where I think Alabama holds the edge, but the Lions will put up a strong fight throughout...IF this game happens. MY PREDICTION: ALABAMA 38, PENN STATE 31
There you have it. My predictions in a nutshell. This is actually the first time I predicted Alabama to win the national championship. Ever. Sounds funny, but I just have that vibe. So on other words, I probably jinxed it for Bama. Sorry.
TOP 5 QUESTIONS THAT MAY BE ANSWERED BY THE END OF THE SEASON:
1. WHO WINS THE HEISMAN TROPHY? Sam Darnold, USC. He just has the make-up of being one of the best college quarterbacks in history. Now does he come out of this season to go to the NFL? Who knows, but it always seems like we have a Heisman winner that returns and doesn't performs as well as the year before. Somewhat of a Heisman curse. But this year it goes to Darnold.
2. WILL THE SEC RETURN TO BEING THE BEST CONFERENCE? Yes. It is hard, but sooner or later, it will come to fruition for Auburn, LSU, and Georgia and it may start this year. I think if Florida State loses both to Alabama and Ohio State it will sting down the conference a good bit and if Clemson isn't in a New Year's Six bowl that will also sting. And then of course if it goes to prediction, Alabama beats Virginia Tech, the ACC's run as kings for a year is over. But I think the PAC-12 makes great strides and if USC faces Alabama instead of Penn State, watch out for the PAC-12 especially if my prediction of Washington beating LSU happens.
3. IF OKLAHOMA GETS SNUBBED WHETHER IT BEING 12-1 OR 11-2, WILL THE SOONERS GET THE WHEELS ROLLING ON LEAVING THE BIG 12? Yes. It may also signal the start of a domino effect that we saw when the first round of Big 12 teams fled. The Big 12 right now is a house of cards and the Sooners may push the house. The ONLY way at this point for the Big 12 to get better is the entire conference gets better and fast. And then the ball shifts to Texas. But if the Big 12 remains average, Oklahoma will talk with heads of the SEC and the PAC-12. And that will be the end of the Big 12.
4. WHERE WILL CHIP KELLY COACH IN 2018? Texas A&M. I think it is no secret the Aggies won't accept anymore 7-5 or 6-6 seasons from Kevin Sumlin after investing so much into Kyle Field and in the SEC in general to be a middle-tier squad. He would be the hot item much like Saban was in 2007 and Jim Harbaugh was in 2015. If not Texas A&M, UCLA. So week 1 may be the Chip Kelly Bowl. Loser gets Chip Kelly next year!
5. WILL WE EVER SEE A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM GO UNDEFEATED? More than likely no. In fact, since 2006, we've only seen 3 national champions to go undefeated (Alabama-09, Auburn-10, Florida State-13). 3 in 11. We've see one national champion have 2 losses (LSU-07). While I think things are safe in terms of having a few more one-loss champions, you may see more 2-loss national champions than undefeated champs in the next 10 years. And the reasoning is simple: 1. these teams have to now play 15 games in order to win the title; 2. The competition is fiercer and teams HAVE to schedule an out-of-conference power to look great in the eyes of the committee; 3. Even the top teams will have off games in a 12-game season format. And who knows, but we could see a massive upset somewhere in college a la Appalachian State/Michigan. Who knows, we could see Western Michigan stun USC or Indiana sneaks one past Ohio State in Week 1. But I think a 15-0 national champion is very improbable. Ask Clemson and Alabama the last two years.
Next week, the first week preview! Yes I know there are games this weekend, but the major games start next week. No offense to Colorado State/Oregon State. If it helps, Oregon State wins 24-21.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
