Just How Many "Franchise QB's" Are There in the NFL Today?
There is a common misconception among NFL fans that the term "franchise quarterback" correlates with being elite. Don't get me wrong, there are some signal callers in this league who are elite, and franchise QB's. There are also some guys who are not elite but are still franchise guys. Everyone has a different definition of what a "franchise quarterback" is, but I've done my best to come up with a definition that will please everyone. A franchise quarterback is:
1. A player the team is not looking to immediately replace (via free agency or the draft)
2. A player who can consistently perform and is intrenched as a starter for multiple seasons
3. A player the team can build around
4. A player the team is invested in
A player does not have to be elite to meet these requirements. He doesn't even have to be good. There are average, or even below average franchise QB's in the NFL. Assuming health (Rodgers, Luck, Bridgewater, Tannehill, etc.), I've placed each starting QB into tiers, numbered 1-3. The tiers are explained below:
Tier 1: Bona-fide franchise quarterbacks. These guys can, should and likely will be your centerpiece for years to come. Super Bowl-calibre players.
Tier 2: Good, but not great. These guys can run your offense well and give you a chance to win games. Just good enough to where you won't replace them, but will likely need some help to win deep in the postseason.
Tier 3: You're stuck with them. They're just guys. Nothing special, nothing horrible. You likely won't win lots of games with them, but they're placeholders for the foreseeable future. Rookies who haven't proved anything yet are placed in this tier as well.
Let's go division-by-division and see just how many franchise guys we can spot.
AFC North:
Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben has rebounded from a rough start to the year. He's routinely going to win you games and he can take your offense to the next level. The only question here is, how much longer can he do it? Roethlisberger contemplated retirement after last season but for now, he's a tier 1 franchise QB.
Baltimore Ravens: Joe Flacco
Flacco's play has not been very good the past few years. Yes, he has three AFC Championship appearances and a Super Bowl ring, but I'm just not sold on him. Baltimore still owes him a lot of money and has him under contract for awhile, so he's not being replaced. He's under contract for four more seasons, but due to his performance at this point in his career he's a tier 3 signal caller.
Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton
Dalton is in a boat similar to that of Joe Flacco. His play, however, has been better than that of his Baltimore counterpart. Dalton is under contract for three more seasons. He's not the reason Cincinnati is losing games, but he's not going out and dominating. Andy Dalton, still only 30 years old, is closer to a tier 2 franchise QB than Flacco.
Not Listed: DeShone Kizer (Cincinnati Bengals)
AFC South:
Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck
When healthy, Andrew Luck is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL. He has some the best arm talent I've ever seen and also possesses very underrated mobility. If only he could stay healthy for a full season, or (ideally) an entire career. He is a once-in-a-lifetime talent and will be the centerpiece of this franchise for as long as he's there. Luck is a no-doubt tier 1 QB.
Houston Texans: DeShaun Watson
Watson shined in roughly half his rookie season (19 TD, 8 INT, 103 quarterback rating) but became yet another NFL star to suffer a season-ending injury when he tore his ACL during practice. Watson displayed the leadership, talent and production that will stabilize the QB position for the Texans for years to come. He makes this team a legit contender. All of this qualifies Watson as a tier 1 guy.
Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota
Marcus Mariota is a legit quarterback. Before I reveal his tier, just know that. I don't dislike him and I think he has a bright future in this league. I'm placing him in tier 2 because he hasn't shown that he has the capability of being great yet. He relies on his legs a lot and when he's not healthy (parts of this season), he struggles to pass from the pocket. These issues can be fixed and when/if they are, Mariota will find himself firmly in tier 1. Until then, he's higher tier 2.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles
I can't believe I'm saying this, but Blake Bortles is a franchise quarterback. I could easily look back on this in a few weeks and look like a fool but for now, Bortles is playing well and is saving his career. The touchdowns aren't increasing, but the interceptions are decreasing. Bortles finds himself in tier 3 until he can dominate games but since he's no longer his team's reason for losing, he belongs in a tier.
AFC East:
New England Patriots: Tom Brady
This is easy. Tom Brady is one of, if not the best QB's of all time and as long as he projects himself playing for the next few years, he's going to be a tier 1 quarterback. There's no explanation needed.
Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill is sitting out the 2017-18 season after tearing his ACL before the season began. His replacement, Jay Cutler, was signed on a one-year deal and should be out of Miami come next season, thus giving the job back to Tannehill. This QB has done enough to win games for his team but due to his only recent success (struggled his first few years in the NFL) and his non-guaranteed job next season, Tannehill finds himself in tier 3 of franchise QB's.
Buffalo Bills: Tyrod Taylor
Tyrod Taylor is quietly a top-15 quarterback in the NFL. He takes care of the ball very well (47 TD to 14 INT in 2.5 seasons) and is also a big threat to run the ball (500+ rushing yards in each of his last two seasons). The only reason he's not in tier 1 is because his team hasn't made the playoffs under him and he doesn't flat out dominate games. Tier 2 is still a very respectable tier for a respectable quarterback.
Not Listed: Josh McCown (New York Jets)
AFC West:
Kansas City Chiefs: Alex Smith
Alex Smith is perhaps the most underrated quarterback in the NFL and has been so throughout his entire career. He hasn't thrown double-digit interceptions since 2010 and is on pace to shatter his career-high in touchdowns this season. Smith's play has slowed down a bit the past few weeks and his job isn't 100% secure next year due to the presence of Patrick Mahomes, so he's a tier 2 franchise QB. He should be the guy on another franchise for 3 years or so once his time in Kansas City is over.
Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr
Derek Carr has had some injury troubles in the past two seasons (leg, back) but everyone knows he's the franchise guy in Oakland. The team is building around him and has 100% faith in his play. Carr makes those around him better and is a lower-tier 1 quarterback.
Los Angeles Chargers: Philip Rivers
If you want touchdowns and yards, Philip Rivers would be your prototypical tier 1 quarterback. However, he throws a lot of interceptions and does not win tons of games. He can't carry a team like an Aaron Rodgers and doesn't take over games and win them for his team very often. He's likely on his last multi-year contract in the league, also contributing to why he's a tier 2 franchise signal caller..
Not Listed: Brock Osweiler/Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch (Denver Broncos)
NFC North:
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers
Much like Tom Brady, Rodgers doesn't require much of an explanation as to why he's a tier 1 quarterback. He doesn't make many mistakes and consistently finds ways to terrorize defenses both inside and outside the pocket. He's arguably the most physically gifted QB the NFL has seen in some time.
Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford's new price tag and his improved play puts him firmly in the tier 1 category, despite not having any success in the playoffs. He's not Aaron Rodgers-level great, but he's one of the best QB's not only in the NFC, but in the NFL.
Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater
Teddy Bridgewater is returning this season from one of the scariest injuries I've ever seen. There was serious doubt surrounding his ability to ever play a down in the NFL again, let alone this season. He was a promising prospect before his injury and the consensus franchise QB in Minnesota. With free agency approaching and his injury history a bit frightening, I have to make him a tier 2 QB. He's in the lower end of this category but if he re-signs with the team and picks up where he left off on the field, that tier can be upgraded.
Chicago Bears: Mitchell Trubisky
Mitchell Trubisky hasn't proven himself as a QB in the NFL and is not a good player. He has struggled this season but the team traded a lot to draft him, thus I'm putting him in tier 3. He qualifies as a franchise signal caller because his team is completely invested in him and many believe he's the future of the Chicago Bears.
NFC South:
New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees
Drew Brees seems to be in a contest with Tom Brady to see who can last longer in the NFL. Brees is playing some of his best football and his team is off to one of its better starts in recent memory under the 38-year-old signal caller. As long as he's in New Orleans and not on the verge of retirement (despite contract disputes following this season), consider Brees a tier 1 franchise quarterback.
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan
I'm not as big a fan of Matt Ryan as a lot of people, but I'll give credit where credit is due. He had a great season last year and led his team to the Super Bowl. That qualifies for tier 1 status (unless you're Joe Flacco, but we've touched on that). Ryan is still playing at a solid level and leads a high-powered offensive attack. If he's on your team, you've got a solid chance to win.
Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton
MVP Cam may not never come back. He's made a couple guest appearances this season but in general, no one has seen him since the Super Bowl loss to the Broncos. We're all hoping he'll be back one day. Newton somehow still finds himself in tier 1 based on talent and the (small) sample size of his old self existing this year. If his play doesn't improve by the end of the year, though, you can find Newton in tier 2.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston is a lot like Philip Rivers. He can throw for yards and touchdowns, but he accompanies those stats with a heaping pile of turnovers. Jameis has yet to take his team to the next level, but he's capable of doing so. Until he follows through and does it, he's a tier 2 franchise QB.
NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott has followed up his outstanding rookie year with an equally amazing sophomore campaign. Prescott has thrown 16 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions in eight games this year. He's calm under pressure, a good leader, can throw the ball down the field and has lots of mobility. He's everything you want in a QB. Dak is no doubt tier 1.
Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz
Wentz is another sophomore who is exceeding expectations and is taking the NFL by storm in the process. He's shown that he is more than capable of being the leader of this team (8-1 record this season). Wentz is also a tier 1 quarterback, without a doubt.
Washington Redskins: Kirk Cousins
People don't give Kirk Cousins enough credit. He can light up the stat sheet and win games for you, but he has yet to win a big time game (aside from Seattle last week). For that reason, along with him not having a multi-year contract, Kirk is a tier 2 franchise QB.
Not Listed: Eli Manning (New York Giants)
NFC West:
Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson is no doubt one of the best QB's in the NFL. He's won big games in the regular season, has a Super Bowl ring and is under team control for two more years. There should be no doubt in anyone's mind that Wilson is a tier 1 franchise quarterback.
Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff
Jared Goff has had a bounce back season in his sophomore campaign. He's making throws he didn't make last season and his team is winning games. Until he has success in the playoffs and proves this year is no fluke, he's going to be a solid tier 2 franchise signal caller.
Not Listed: Jimmy Garoppolo (San Francisco 49ers), Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals)
I hope this gives you a more defined sense of what a franchise QB is and how loosely the term is used in today's NFL. There are plenty of guys who can be your franchise QB one day (Alex Smith, Ryan Tannehill, etc.) and can be franchise stopgaps the next. If your favorite team has a tier 1 player, the franchise is in good hands for years to come and you should expect to be competitive. If you're in tier two, don't worry: there is plenty of time to get into tier 1. If you're in tier 3, be cautious. When you think about it, only the Broncos, Jets, Giants, 49ers and Cardinals have immediate QB issues. Everyone else has a guy they want to keep or has a guy they're stuck with. If we were ranking elite QB's, though, we'd see a totally different list.
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